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Author: AdvocatusDiaboli Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 128  
Subject: Re: ABC Movie - Fatal Contact Date: 5/10/2006 1:00 PM
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1. Although a world-wide death toll of 350 million is possible, that is at the outer limits of influenza mortality. It was a worst-case scenario. The most-likely case scenario is much less, even assuming that a human form of the virus will have the same lethality as the existing bird form.

I was under the impression that the existing bird flu has mortality upwards of 50%, and that with extensive care (which would not be available if there are millions of cases in the US).


In reality, we expect that even an extremely lethal human form of avian influenza will behave much like past epidemics. It will move slowly from region to region, giving most of the world many months to prepare.


SARS cases cropped up all around the globe, and that was far less transmissible then flu.

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