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Author: soui Big red star, 1000 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 75594  
Subject: Re: More Bootstrapping/ Retiree Withdrawal Rates Date: 12/16/1999 1:47 PM
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1. Are you using the market return and inflation rate for a given year as one "set" of data, i.e. you create a listing which would look like [1972, 1988, 1967...], or are they used independently?

I use them together.

2. Is there a correlation between these numbers? Or perhaps a way to exclude certain pairs from being used in your sim?

I'm not sure what you mean here. If you mean between the returns and inflation rate for a certain year, then there is whatever correlation has occured historically, if it is something else you mean, I'll need to ask for clarification...

3. Is there a correlation between subsequent years returns (and also inflation)? Or, again a way to exclude certain back - to - back values?

Sure you could do this, i don't see why you would want to though. I have not made any restrictions yet on which years i sample out of 1961-1998...

Can the success or failure of a given 30 year series (real or bootstrapped) be determined by looking at the first five years?

A great question! I would assume that the marginal effect on success rate is highest for the first year and tails off thereafter, but I'm not sure.

If you want, I'd be more than happy to mail you my code for this -- I'm afraid it's fairly primitive (I'm a self-taught programmer), but it should be fairly easy to read and interpret.

(I am not deliberately shirking this -- i have some data to post as soon as i can get it reasonably formatted. It shows the drastic effects that expenses can have on survivability, as well as exploring some more withdrawal rates. i hope to post it this weekend or early next week. )

Cheers,
soui
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