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Author: TMFHockeypop Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 21148  
Subject: Re: Nat Gas Turnaround Timeline Date: 2/5/2013 9:30 AM
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1. They'll stay there unless inflation raises them naturally, OR sparks a recession in which they fall. Gulp.

2. True story, good friend in Texas meets up with his 40 year ago college fraternity brother and they fly off together with family on his friend's corporate jet for a business meeting/vacation in a great spot.

On my weekly call friend tells me oil is going up because that's what the meeting was about. Probably 30% above it's already high rates. No suggestion, just a little information by way of "someone who knows."

I did what I wouldn't have done 20 years ago and sit on my hands. Two weeks later the price of oil has risen another 15% (gag), and four weeks later it's fallen about 30% (HA). My takeaway -- truly since the UAE broke, no one knows for sure. It's an options spread business with a little more to be made by hedging in a correct direction. Like the farmers, the oil producers have to be happy with good cash flow and some safety.

3. Having said THAT, if Obama and the Congress do what he suggested in his "State of the Union", there could be some infrastructure changes that make nat gas and alternative fuels easier to transmit.

OR, there could be created a magic way to make coal burning beneficial to the air and nuclear waste valuable as a fertilizer.

4. You JUST don't know, but not knowing doesn't mean that you don't act. You just try to assess the risk.

Bob
RYR Home Fool
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