No. of Recommendations: 11
1) You don't have to use the SP500 index..in fact, John Bogle of Vanguard finds more favor with Total Stock Market Index.

2) You don't have to take 4% as gospel....in fact, Bernstein's studies use half a dozen asset classes in his studies....you can certainly attempt to model your portfolio after his

3) If I recall right, many of the studies on the 75/25 and 50/50 and other combinations used a large number >20 of stocks. You don't have to buy index......But should have a broadly representative selection across the market and industries in your portfolio, with nothing over 5% or so. That way , you don't have distributions.

4) You don't have to rebabalance......in fact, if I recall right, Bernstein saids don't, if you are in taxable situation.

I'm not sure I follow all your logic...first you use 75 year period, then another.....

Yes, you can't be 100% sure of the future, but my recollection is that the 4% withdrawal rate was based upon a sliding window (30 years typically used) over the entire period where data was available, and it worked for every single 30 year period.

If you can backtest your model, using a sliding 30 year window, and it works every year, then I would say the probability is high it will work going forward.

I'm not sure I follow your logic either on the 1990s...during that timeframe, there were significant improvements in productivity in many many industries, and real growth, not just market multiple expansion. Billion dollar corporations went from zero to billions in 15 years.

COuld you share the result of your discounted treasury model over the 1975 to 1985 period when treasuries hit 15% for the 30 year bond....how did that reflect on the stock market and predict what it did over that timeframe?????? dividends didn't change....dividend growth surely wasn't 12%, was it?

I also missed the bottom line of your post. If you don't agree with the 4% withdrawal rate, what rate are you advocating for planning purposes for someone with a 30 year time horizon, invested in a broad basket of stocks, with 75% equities/25% bonds/CD ???????
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