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Author: dstnewman Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 6918  
Subject: Re: Taking Down Position Short-Term Date: 5/14/2008 12:51 PM
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12.90 is going to be a large point of resistance, I agree.

What I would consider though is that the fact that the current trading price (12.13 as I type this) is above the 20, 50, and 100 day moving average as well as outside of the Bollinger Bands.

If the merger was to close while these conditions are present, you may see a large pop in the stock price as many of the selling pressures (50 and 100 day SMA) have already been covered. This means that it could easily pop to the recent hights of $16 and above. This would represent a 25% run up in the stocks.

Sirius on the otherhand, is above the 20 and 50 day moving averages, but still moderately below the 100 day SMA (2.96) and upper BBands (3.18). This could provide some resistance, though the next technical resistance spot is around $3.18. Given the 4.6 trade ratio for the merger, this would mean that XM could feel some resistance as well at around $14.63.

As my trading theory goes, I am going to assume that Sirius will blow past the 100 SMA and upper BBand limit on the news of approval, and could very well run up to the next resistance of $3.50, which would indicate a potential upward swing of nearly 24%. At 3.50, XM shares would calculate out to 16.10 per share. The short squeeze may push shares up further, but I am not counting on that. If so, it could add another 8% to Sirius pushing it towards the recent high of 3.83, realizing almost a 33% gain. Hard to see, but it is a possibility.
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