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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 24974  
Subject: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/14/2006 3:13 PM
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Ok,

Thanks to all for making the selections. Here is what i have so far:

Please let me know if there is a mistake ASAP. Short is indicated by (sh). I will put these into CAPS later and provide a link. I will enter TELK as a long (rhaaby - invert the performance from red to green or vice-versa, when you check up on this selection).

Contestant Company Company

applefoot NVGN MSHL
joseph14 CRIS CYTR
patelk10 NKTR ELN
vision1220 ELN ACOR (sh)
hiddenflem TELK DSCO
missash ELN VRTX
wadigo ISIS NGEN
AlohaDan100 COR ACUS
cliff AGIX GNBT
otter6 LIFC CRIS
sano GTOP ZGEN
TurkeyBreath UGNE LIFC
HelicalZz CPHD VTIV
CSOakes MNTA ALKS
rhaaby MSHL TELK (Sh)
JPG101 GNBT RNVO.L
drPraveen EXEL MNTA
noptov52 NFLD ACUS
stratton6 SNSS BMRN

I think I got everyone and thier latest.

Zz
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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20868 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/14/2006 8:11 PM
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OK

I have the CAPS port up and running. It is here:

http://caps.fool.com/ViewPlayer.aspx?t=01004413597707936679

Username: BioZZF
If you have a CAPS portfolio already, the easiest way to track it is to make it a favorite of your CAPS avatar. Otherwise, you may want to use the browser favorites or MyLinks on the MyFool page.

I was able to load everything except Curis (CRIS), selected by Joseph and otter6, and Renovo (RNVO.L). [Note: Joseph, the Friday run-up of CytRx made it CAPS eligible - LOL]. Everything is currently listed as pending.

Initial prices will be the Opening price on Monday, as these will track in CAPS. I didn't include pitches as BioZZF does not have board access, so cutting and pasting comments was not available. I like the idea of having pitches and will see what can be done here. What I really like is the ability to reply to a pitch with news and commentary - very useful blogging tool.

Now, as for Renovo, it is easiest for me to track the stock in pounds and evaluate performance merely as % return. This will not however account for future currency exchange benefits or penalties. Currently 1 British pound = 1.8597 U.S. dollar. This will be noted from time to time, but not with every update; certainly a tiebreaker would rely on exchange rates if it came to that.

Finally, I entered an index for tracking onto the CAPS port as well. I chose PBE, PowerShares Dynamic Biotech & Genome. It's a new ETF from Powershares based on fundamental indexing principles. I picked it because I may write about fundamental indexing and may like to reference CAPS, the boards, and the contest.

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20871 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/14/2006 9:02 PM
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Another CAPS point.

I noticed when entering the selections that only 2 are currently 5-star CAPS rated companies - BioMarin and Acusphere. There are a few 4-star, Lifecell, Alkermes, Exelixis, InVentiv, and Nektar.

Lots of 1-star - LOL.

And yes, you can't see the CAPS portfolio yet, because they are still pending (only I can - but not as HelicalZz), they should show up after market open Monday.

Zz

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20872 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/15/2006 8:55 AM
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If CRIS & RNVO.L get to a place in which the CAPS accepts, will you then post them in there immediately?

CYTR eligible? By including that come Monday, may give the ranking a bit of a drag if those who rushed in Friday then rush out Monday. My apologies to the "group" ranking ahead of time.

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20873 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/15/2006 10:34 AM
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If CRIS & RNVO.L get to a place in which the CAPS accepts, will you then post them in there immediately?

I don't know about immediately - but sure, they'll go up. I'll still post a spreadsheet in this thread periodically for performance and ranking, but CAPS is a nice place to check on how you're doing or who else is jumping / falling.

My apologies to the "group" ranking ahead of time.


I'm not worried about the group ranking, if it does well, it might make for nice reference in an article or two. Right now on the CAPS beta board there is some debate / comment on players using doppels. Dave seems to pretty much not care as long as it's not blatantly abused.

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20878 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/16/2006 10:29 AM
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OK,

CAPS port now shows the selections. (most of them).

http://caps.fool.com/ViewPlayer.aspx?t=01004413597707936679

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20879 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/16/2006 1:49 PM
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Joseph,

You were totally screwed by the start date - you should get an asterisk.

Zz

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20880 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/16/2006 4:52 PM
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"Joseph,

You were totally screwed by the start date - you should get an asterisk."
Zz
----------------

I know!

Thusly the "foul" thread. Then to add insult to injury, you set it up to load with openning prices rather than Fridays close which cranked it further for a fall.

A fall it surly did.

On the bright side, itis after all the first day & a year is a long time when it comes to our "delicate" companies here.

Deep sigh, & tomorrow is another day.

Joseph - just giving everyone a fair handicap after all for me to climb.

It'll be good, just wait & see.



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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20881 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/16/2006 4:56 PM
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Joseph,

Then to add insult to injury, you set it up to load with opening prices rather than Fridays close.

That was because of CAPS. Ironically, the selection is once again ineligible for CAPS (LOL)- but the policy is to simply not allow new ratings - not close those that exist.

It was kind of fun to peek in on the CAPS page today. Lots of bouncing about. I'm surprised it got off to such a strong start.

Zz

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20882 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/16/2006 6:05 PM
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Wait just one minute. I distinctly remember the CAPS rules stating that once a company is "eligible", and a player has picked it then it remains included regardless of the slide back below the parameters.

I would bring that up on that Caps board that we read please.

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20883 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/16/2006 6:29 PM
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Wait just one minute. I distinctly remember the CAPS rules stating that once a company is "eligible", and a player has picked it then it remains included regardless of the slide back below the parameters.</I.

Yeah that's right. I simply meant that if the contest had started Friday or Tomorrow - I would not have been able to add it. The window was open only briefly - but it go in.

Zz

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20884 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/16/2006 6:33 PM
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Oh, well, nevermind.

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20900 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/19/2006 10:55 AM
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Hey look,

We've already attained all-star status.

http://caps.fool.com/ViewPlayer.aspx?t=01004413597707936679

Zz - knows firsthand that this can be fleeting.

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20901 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/19/2006 11:20 AM
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Groovy & CYTR is charging out of last place. Ought I not recieve like a 10% handicap after all?

By the way, Ralph, yesterday my own port reached 17th place & held near to it.

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Author: otter6 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20935 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/25/2006 6:04 PM
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good thing this contest is for a year..

LIFC just got creamed today even tho earnings doubled year over year for the qtr... should say, from a more personal standpoint, I got creamed. Glad I only had an entry position and hadn't had a chance to build it up....

ouch...

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20936 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/25/2006 6:54 PM
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otter, you have my deeper empathy in this.

In the a.m. watching the ticker price go by. I quickly did anit of reading about LIFC just in case I wanted to add it to my CAPS list.

This due to knowing how on 1st day prices get either over cooked or over sold.

Rather, I paused & instead decided to go out & stack this years wood.

It didn't change much as you know. The analysts are "seeing" something that I can't discern.

Have you determined what it is?

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Author: otter6 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20939 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/26/2006 7:08 AM
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actually, from what I can tell, LIFC earnings for the qtr compared to the year ago qtr doubled...

what got them was the announcement that they were going to miss the analysts FY earnings and revs number, but by only a few cents and a couple of mil on the revs.

whats interesting tho is the SHORT position was approx 10 days worth of trading.... going into the earnings release...

has me wondering what did someone "know" in advance. Cause thats a heck of a position to stake out on an A rated stock with a pretty good earnings track record...

I was aware of the short position, but given IBD's data on LIFC, my bad for failing to realize someone might have known something that shouldn't have been known...

so I am out now... will wait for it to firm things up... and will likely get back in...

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20966 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 11/1/2006 9:44 AM
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First Update (and only about 45 min to format the table properly).

Note that foreign currencies are not adjusted to dollars. I don't see any reason to do this except perhaps at the end.

Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

HelicalZz 9.63% CPHD $7.20 $8.21 14.0% VTIV $27.18 $28.60 5.2%
wadigo 8.31% ISIS $8.39 $8.58 2.3% NGEN $1.81 $2.07 14.4%
Index 3.45% PBE $17.99 $18.61 3.4%
stratton6 3.32% SNSS $4.92 $5.50 11.8% BMRN $16.90 $16.03 -5.1%
missash 2.83% ELN $15.59 $14.48 -7.1% VRTX $36.00 $40.60 12.8%
joseph14 2.27% CRIS $1.41 $1.50 6.4% CYTR $1.62 $1.59 -1.9%
hiddenflem 2.25% TELK $18.20 $18.95 4.1% DSCO $2.60 $2.61 0.4%
applefoot 0.70% NVGN $10.60 $10.23 -3.5% MSHL $3.07 $3.22 4.9%
rhaaby 0.38% MSHL $3.07 $3.22 4.9% TELK(S) $18.20 $18.95 -4.1%
CSOakes -1.48% MNTA $15.71 $14.90 -5.2% ALKS $16.44 $16.80 2.2%
drPraveen -3.44% EXEL $9.87 $9.70 -1.7% MNTA $15.71 $14.90 -5.2%
noptov52 -4.70% NFLD $14.38 $13.44 -6.5% ACUS $3.49 $3.39 -2.9%
Hallucigenia -5.45% PYM.L 55.00 49.00 -$0.11 BTA.AX 1.27 1.32
sano -6.03% GTOP $3.71 $3.71 0.0% ZGEN $18.25 $16.05 -12.1%
patelk10 -6.62% NKTR $15.37 $14.43 -6.1% ELN $15.59 $14.48 -7.1%
vision1220 -7.14% ELN $15.59 $14.48 -7.1% ACOR(S) $16.60 $17.79 -7.2%
otter6 -9.14% LIFC $31.10 $23.43 -24.7% CRIS $1.41 $1.50 6.4%
cliff -10.18% AGIX $13.69 $13.00 -5.0% GNBT $2.35 $1.99 -15.3%
JPG101 -11.03% GNBT $2.35 $1.99 -15.3% RNVO.L 163.00 152.00 -6.7%
TurkeyBreath -11.70% UGNE $2.38 $2.41 1.3% LIFC $31.10 $23.43 -24.7%
AlohaDan100 -25.52% COR $3.28 $1.70 -48.2% ACUS $3.49 $3.39 -2.9%

Only two of us ahead of the index - LOL. As I recall last year's contest started out this way as well. Our CAPS port went from quickly reaching All-Star status - to falling off the roof. Que sera.

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 20967 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 11/1/2006 9:49 AM
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I see I still had Hallucigenia's line formatted wrong.

Hallucigenia -3.49% PYM.L 55.00 49.00 -10.91% BTA.AX 1.27 1.32 3.9%

And up one postion.

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21011 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 11/15/2006 11:46 PM
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Contest update below:

So here I go all mouthy in the Isis thread thinking I had fought off a threat, and I completely failed to notice CRIS up 14% today and nearly 35% since it was selected by joseph714 and otter6. It springs Joseph into the lead. Stinking microaps - who let those in anyway - LOL.

Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 6 joseph714 26.94% CRIS $1.41 $1.90 34.8% CYTR $1.62 $1.93 19.1%
2 1 HelicalZz 23.85% CPHD $7.20 $9.48 31.7% VTIV $27.18 $31.54 16.0%
3 2 wadigo 17.92% ISIS $8.39 $10.84 29.2% NGEN $1.81 $1.93 6.6%
4 5 missash 8.20% ELN $15.59 $14.70 -5.7% VRTX $36.00 $43.96 22.1%
5 17 otter6 6.56% LIFC $31.10 $24.37 -21.6% CRIS $1.41 $1.90 34.8%
6 3 Index 5.28% PBE $17.99 $18.94 5.3%
7 9 rhaaby 2.18% MSHL $3.07 $3.15 2.6% TELK(S) $18.20 $17.88 1.8%
8 10 CSOakes 1.66% MNTA $15.71 $16.47 4.8% ALKS $16.44 $16.19 -1.5%
9 16 vision1220 0.91% ELN $15.59 $14.70 -5.7% ACOR(S) $16.60 $15.35 7.5%
10 8 applefoot -0.40% NVGN $10.60 $10.24 -3.4% MSHL $3.07 $3.15 2.6%
11 13 Hallucigenia -0.59% PYM.L 55.00 48.50 -11.82% BTA.AX 1.27 1.41 10.6%
12 4 stratton6 -0.79% SNSS $4.92 $4.65 -5.5% BMRN $16.90 $17.56 3.9%
13 15 patelk10 -2.11% NKTR $15.37 $15.60 1.5% ELN $15.59 $14.70 -5.7%
14 11 drPraveen -2.29% EXEL $9.87 $8.94 -9.4% MNTA $15.71 $16.47 4.8%
15 19 JPG101 -4.86% GNBT $2.35 $2.19 -6.8% RNVO.L 163.00 158.25 -2.9%
16 12 noptov52 -5.87% NFLD $14.38 $12.94 -10.0% ACUS $3.49 $3.43 -1.7%
17 7 hiddenflem -5.88% TELK $18.20 $17.88 -1.8% DSCO $2.60 $2.34 -10.0%
18 18 cliff -6.29% AGIX $13.69 $12.90 -5.8% GNBT $2.35 $2.19 -6.8%
19 14 sano -6.43% GTOP $3.71 $3.69 -0.5% ZGEN $18.25 $16.00 -12.3%
20 20 TurkeyBreath -13.34% UGNE $2.38 $2.26 -5.0% LIFC $31.10 $24.37 -21.6%
21 21 AlohaDan100 -25.55% COR $3.28 $1.66 -49.4% ACUS $3.49 $3.43 -1.7%

Meanwhile our CAPS port is pretty anemic (where is AMGN when you need them). Time will tell.
Zz

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21015 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 11/16/2006 8:44 AM
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Yeah baby!

& also, remember the hole I was drilled into with CYTR on the 1st day?

By the way, Ralph, did you ever include CRIS on the CAPS thingy?

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21018 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 11/16/2006 1:19 PM
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By the way, Ralph, did you ever include CRIS on the CAPS thingy?


No it still does not qualify - 150M cap cutoff for CAPS.

Zz

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Author: missash Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21019 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 11/16/2006 1:31 PM
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150M cap cutoff for CAPS>>>>>>>>>>>>> I believe it is 100 million

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21020 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 11/16/2006 1:46 PM
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Right, $1.50 price and 100M cap.

I had them mentally reveersed

Anyway CRIS is still inelligible. Since the start date is lost - the only reason to add it would be to make it easier for me to do the updates, of course it's also a nice place to see all the picks laid out.

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21070 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 11/30/2006 10:51 PM
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Latest Update,

I've taken back over 1st, likely temporary. Last years winner Hallucignia is making a strong move toward the leaders as are patlek12 and drPraveen. Otter6 - what happened?

Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L
1 2 HelicalZz 21.31% CPHD $7.20 $9.44 31.1% VTIV $27.18 $30.31 11.5%
2 3 wadigo 16.80% ISIS $8.39 $10.19 21.5% NGEN $1.81 $2.03 12.2%
3 4 missash 7.94% ELN $15.59 $14.47 -7.2% VRTX $36.00 $44.30 23.1%
4 1 joseph714 5.54% CRIS $1.41 $1.54 9.2% CYTR $1.62 $1.65 1.9%
5 7 rhaaby 4.08% MSHL $3.07 $3.12 1.6% TELK(S) $18.20 $17.01 6.5%
6 6 Index 3.45% PBE $17.99 $18.61 3.4%
7 11 Hallucigenia 1.39% PYM.L 55.00 47.00 -14.55% BTA.AX 1.27 1.49 17.3%
8 8 CSOakes 1.20% MNTA $15.71 $17.29 10.1% ALKS $16.44 $15.18 -7.7%
9 13 patelk10 0.08% NKTR $15.37 $16.50 7.4% ELN $15.59 $14.47 -7.2%
10 14 drPraveen -1.30% EXEL $9.87 $8.62 -12.7% MNTA $15.71 $17.29 10.1%
11 10 applefoot -2.02% NVGN $10.60 $10.00 -5.7% MSHL $3.07 $3.12 1.6%
12 stratton6 -2.43% SNSS $4.92 $4.62 -6.1% BMRN $16.90 $17.11 1.2%
13 16 noptov52 -5.08% NFLD $14.38 $15.39 7.0% ACUS $3.49 $2.89 -17.2%
14 15 JPG101 -6.95% GNBT $2.35 $2.11 -10.2% RNVO.L 163.00 157.00 -3.7%
15 19 sano -8.71% GTOP $3.71 $3.58 -3.5% ZGEN $18.25 $15.71 -13.9%
16 18 cliff -10.07% AGIX $13.69 $12.33 -9.9% GNBT $2.35 $2.11 -10.2%
17 5 otter6 -10.33% LIFC $31.10 $21.81 -29.9% CRIS $1.41 $1.54 9.2%
18 9 vision1220 -11.91% ELN $15.59 $14.47 -7.2% ACOR(S) $16.60 $19.36 -16.6%
19 17 hiddenflem -12.50% TELK $18.20 $17.01 -6.5% DSCO $2.60 $2.12 -18.5%
20 20 TurkeyBreath -19.77% UGNE $2.38 $2.15 -9.7% LIFC $31.10 $21.81 -29.9%
21 21 AlohaDan100 -36.95% COR $3.28 $1.42 -56.7% ACUS $3.49 $2.89 -17.2%

On a completely unrelated note, did everyone catch me making a very non-biotech-like like pro dividend argument in today's Dueling Fools?
http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2006/commentary06113019.htm

Zz (feeling self promotional).

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21119 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 12/15/2006 9:58 PM
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Well, I gave up the top spot, due to Isis continued strong performance (15 years too late in my opinion - but whose counting). Keeping company with the last two contest winners is nothing to complain about. Hallucigenia continues to move to the front.

Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 2 wadigo 27.55% ISIS $8.39 $12.04 43.5% NGEN $1.81 $2.02 11.6%
2 1 HelicalZz 22.08% CPHD $7.20 $8.96 24.4% VTIV $27.18 $32.54 19.7%
3 7 Hallucigenia 3.78% PYM.L 55.00 44.00 -20.00% BTA.AX 1.27 1.62 27.6%
4 5 rhaaby 2.85% MSHL $3.07 $2.99 -2.6% TELK(S) $18.20 $16.69 8.3%
5 6 Index 2.00% PBE $17.99 $18.35 2.0%
6 4 joseph714 1.24% CRIS $1.41 $1.21 -14.2% CYTR $1.62 $1.89 16.7%
7 10 drPraveen -0.44% EXEL $9.87 $9.01 -8.7% MNTA $15.71 $16.94 7.8%
8 3 missash -0.55% ELN $15.59 $14.15 -9.2% VRTX $36.00 $38.93 8.1%
9 9 patelk10 -1.01% NKTR $15.37 $16.48 7.2% ELN $15.59 $14.15 -9.2%
10 8 CSOakes -3.14% MNTA $15.71 $16.94 7.8% ALKS $16.44 $14.12 -14.1%
11 11 applefoot -3.57% NVGN $10.60 $10.12 -4.5% MSHL $3.07 $2.99 -2.6%
12 18 vision1220 -3.90% ELN $15.59 $14.15 -9.2% ACOR(S) $16.60 $16.36 1.4%
13 19 hiddenflem -6.84% TELK $18.20 $16.69 -8.3% DSCO $2.60 $2.46 -5.4%
14 12 stratton6 -7.43% SNSS $4.92 $4.18 -15.0% BMRN $16.90 $16.93 0.2%
15 15 sano -8.78% GTOP $3.71 $3.40 -8.4% ZGEN $18.25 $16.57 -9.2%
16 20 TurkeyBreath -11.14% UGNE $2.38 $2.53 6.3% LIFC $31.10 $22.21 -28.6%
17 13 noptov52 -13.47% NFLD $14.38 $14.79 2.9% ACUS $3.49 $2.45 -29.8%
18 14 JPG101 -15.88% GNBT $2.35 $1.82 -22.6% RNVO.L 163.00 148.00 -9.2%
19 16 cliff -19.02% AGIX $13.69 $11.57 -15.5% GNBT $2.35 $1.82 -22.6%
20 17 otter6 -21.38% LIFC $31.10 $22.21 -28.6% CRIS $1.41 $1.21 -14.2%
21 21 AlohaDan100 -45.08% COR $3.28 $1.30 -60.4% ACUS $3.49 $2.45 -29.8%

The index (PBE) is trailing the S&P. It hasn't been a strong couple of months for healthcare IMO (unless your ISIS or in RNAi, then its all sunshine). Noticed Alnylam (no one picked this?) hitting up the market again for $$ - strike while the iron is hot.

Our CAPS port is still sub-20. Needs a strong 2007.

Until the next update - Merry Christmas / Happy Holidays / Happy New Year.

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21158 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 12/30/2006 2:09 PM
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We have a short leap to first place by rhaaby in what has been a busy two weeks in biotech. Busy is kind, it has been ugly.

First Telik, which vaulted rhaaby who had the sense to short this company (sorry hiddenflem). It's drug Telcyta failed in 3 separate phase III clinical trials; it had 5 underway.
Brian wrote about it here:
http://biz.yahoo.com/fool/061227/116724378137.html

Second, well the struggle for an adequate way to test a blood substitute continued for Northfield. The results they did have were not too promising, even without the trial inconsistencies. I hope everyone read shuksan27's post related to the difficulties inherent in a trial of this type (it looks from the well deserved rec count that you did).
http://boards.fool.com/Message.asp?mid=24957933

Anyway the standings

Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 4 rhaaby 37.67% MSHL $3.07 $3.06 -0.3% TELK(S) $18.20 $4.43 75.7%
2 2 HelicalZz 24.06% CPHD $7.20 $8.50 18.1% VTIV $27.18 $35.35 30.1%
3 1 wadigo 17.93% ISIS $8.39 $11.12 32.5% NGEN $1.81 $1.87 3.3%
4 3 Hallucigenia 6.51% PYM.L 55.00 47.00 -14.55% BTA.AX 1.27 1.62 27.6%
5 6 joseph714 3.63% CRIS $1.41 $1.26 -10.6% CYTR $1.62 $1.91 17.9%
6 12 vision1220 -0.43% ELN $15.59 $14.75 -5.4% ACOR(S) $16.60 $15.85 4.5%
7 8 missash -0.72% ELN $15.59 $14.75 -5.4% VRTX $36.00 $37.42 3.9%
8 5 Index -1.61% PBE $17.99 $17.70 -1.6%
9 11 applefoot -2.24% NVGN $10.60 $10.16 -4.2% MSHL $3.07 $3.06 -0.3%
10 9 patelk10 -3.21% NKTR $15.37 $15.21 -1.0% ELN $15.59 $14.75 -5.4%
11 7 drPraveen -4.34% EXEL $9.87 $9.00 -8.8% MNTA $15.71 $15.73 0.1%
12 14 stratton6 -5.57% SNSS $4.92 $4.52 -8.1% BMRN $16.90 $16.39 -3.0%
13 16 TurkeyBreath -8.46% UGNE $2.38 $2.51 5.5% LIFC $31.10 $24.14 -22.4%
14 10 CSOakes -9.27% MNTA $15.71 $15.73 0.1% ALKS $16.44 $13.37 -18.7%
15 15 sano -9.90% GTOP $3.71 $3.52 -5.1% ZGEN $18.25 $15.57 -14.7%
16 18 JPG101 -13.13% GNBT $2.35 $1.56 -33.6% RNVO.L 163.00 175.00 7.4%
17 20 otter6 -16.51% LIFC $31.10 $24.14 -22.4% CRIS $1.41 $1.26 -10.6%
18 19 cliff -30.61% AGIX $13.69 $9.91 -27.6% GNBT $2.35 $1.56 -33.6%
19 13 hiddenflem -42.45% TELK $18.20 $4.43 -75.7% DSCO $2.60 $2.36 -9.2%
20 21 AlohaDan100 -45.99% COR $3.28 $1.25 -61.9% ACUS $3.49 $2.44 -30.1%
21 17 noptov52 -50.89% NFLD $14.38 $4.07 -71.7% ACUS $3.49 $2.44 -30.1%

Lastly, this month's issue of The Scientist had a nice PR piece on John Bishop, CEO of Cepheid, my pick, a company I do not yet own in reality, but expect I will one day (I do own my other pick). Also printed was a too brief piece on adjuvants in vaccination such as TLR (Toll like receptor) activators. A few interesting companies are operating in this area (COLY, DVAX). I'll try to remember to post these should / when they become available for free on the mag's website.

Happy New Year

And may investing in 2007 be as good to you as 2006 was to me!

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21187 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 1/12/2007 11:08 AM
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Recommendations: 1
Just for a kick, I logged in with the BioZZF to see how our contest CAPS portfolio was actually doing.

http://caps.fool.com/MyPlayer.aspx?source=icasitlnk9950001

It only shows < 20 to outside players.

Our score is really

0.97

19632 out of 19826 players.

We were worse last week, we are on an upswing of late. I may never know how low we actually got (within the bottom 100 I expect).

Note that not all picks are represented and that the port went bullish on TELK, while the contest has both long and short selections (I should have gone with the short). Of course, Northfield is faring worse than TELK.

I find this riotously funny.

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21188 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 1/12/2007 11:10 AM
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Wrong link for the port. The last one was mine which has been recovering nicely (I was down to a score of ~6 myself a couple weeks back).

http://caps.fool.com/ViewPlayer.aspx?t=01004413597707936679

Zz

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21189 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 1/12/2007 3:16 PM
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Yeah, hilarious (frown).

Interestingly, the 1st link is not only your port, but is whomever clicks on its port.

Will you be posting our update this evening? Jon, & some are having a splendid week & there likely are some shake ups in the standings.

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21190 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 1/12/2007 4:28 PM
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Recommendations: 0
Will you be posting our update this evening?

Over the weekend. I've got the inlaws staying in the PC room of late.

Zz

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Author: applefoot Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21191 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 1/12/2007 5:46 PM
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Hi Joseph and Zz,

I guess Rhaaby will be shining bright with MSHL up and TELIK down so much(which he smartly shorted).

I might have had a short myself on Telik but I figured the most you could gain was 100% even if it went completely bankrupt... and because the contest runs for a year it is conceivable that MSHL and NVGN could rise more than 100% each in that time.

Just for fun last year and because I could short Telik in a 3 month timeframe I did short it in my CAPS contest list. Since the break down of Telik my Caps rating has been in the low 90"s with my list of eight companies. Only four are Biotech... MSHL, NVGN of course plus short TELK and long Crucell (CRXL).

I was going to reverse my short on Telik after the bust and go long for a while but couldn't figure out how to do it. Left it still as a short although it has picked up well in the last week. Must admit I still haven't got around to learning exactly what CAPS can do yet. I'm a lazy sod when no real money is involved.<grin>

Good luck to us all in our real investments in 2007.

Jon

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21193 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 1/14/2007 12:12 PM
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Recommendations: 4
Here is how we stand going into the long weekend.

As applefoot mentioned Marshall Edwards lends a further boost to rhaaby alrady leading selection, the Telk short. Rhaaby is the rabbit we now all need to chase. Applefoot jumps into second place also with Marshall and recent stregth from Novogen.

Marshall jumped after the presentation at the JP Morgan healthcare conference. I haven't yet given this a listen, but it should be worthwhile. Again, http://www.mapdigital.com/jpmorgan/healthcare07/welcome.html is the link for listening in on presentations. MSHL's presentation should be available through April.

Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 1 rhaaby 55.37% MSHL $3.07 $4.42 44.0% TELK(S) $18.20 $6.05 66.8%
2 9 applefoot 28.21% NVGN $10.60 $11.92 12.5% MSHL $3.07 $4.42 44.0%
3 3 wadigo 25.38% ISIS $8.39 $12.37 47.4% NGEN $1.81 $1.87 3.3%
4 5 joseph714 23.14% CRIS $1.41 $1.34 -5.0% CYTR $1.62 $2.45 51.2%
5 2 HelicalZz 23.09% CPHD $7.20 $8.26 14.7% VTIV $27.18 $35.73 31.5%
6 11 drPraveen 5.56% EXEL $9.87 $10.10 2.3% MNTA $15.71 $17.09 8.8%
7 4 Hallucigenia 3.61% PYM.L 55.00 44.25 -19.55% BTA.AX 1.27 1.61 26.8%
8 8 Index 3.11% PBE $17.99 $18.55 3.1%
9 12 stratton6 3.09% SNSS $4.92 $5.00 1.6% BMRN $16.90 $17.67 4.6%
10 14 CSOakes 1.14% MNTA $15.71 $17.09 8.8% ALKS $16.44 $15.37 -6.5%
11 7 missash -4.40% ELN $15.59 $13.44 -13.8% VRTX $36.00 $37.80 5.0%
12 13 TurkeyBreath -6.14% UGNE $2.38 $2.50 5.0% LIFC $31.10 $25.71 -17.3%
13 15 sano -7.23% GTOP $3.71 $3.57 -3.8% ZGEN $18.25 $16.30 -10.7%
14 16 JPG101 -7.41% GNBT $2.35 $1.80 -23.4% RNVO.L 163.00 177.00 8.6%
15 6 vision1220 -7.92% ELN $15.59 $13.44 -13.8% ACOR(S) $16.60 $16.94 -2.0%
16 10 patelk10 -9.37% NKTR $15.37 $14.61 -4.9% ELN $15.59 $13.44 -13.8%
17 17 otter6 -11.15% LIFC $31.10 $25.71 -17.3% CRIS $1.41 $1.34 -5.0%
18 18 cliff -20.80% AGIX $13.69 $11.20 -18.2% GNBT $2.35 $1.80 -23.4%
19 19 hiddenflem -35.88% TELK $18.20 $6.05 -66.8% DSCO $2.60 $2.47 -5.0%
20 20 AlohaDan100 -44.92% COR $3.28 $1.32 -59.8% ACUS $3.49 $2.44 -30.1%
21 21 noptov52 -50.30% NFLD $14.38 $4.24 -70.5% ACUS $3.49 $2.44 -30.1%


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Author: rhaaby Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21195 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 1/15/2007 8:16 PM
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Zz,

I may be looking at this the wrong way up, being an Australian, but are you sure your gain/loss calculation for short sales is correct?

Your spreadsheet calculates the difference between current price and original price, then calculates the gain/loss as a percentage of the ORIGINAL price. This is OK for 'normal' sales, but in the case of short transactions I would have thought that the gain/loss should be calculated as a percentage of the CURRENT price, as the current price for short shares is the purchase price, whereas the original price is the sale price.

% G/L (Normal) = (Cur.Pr - St.Pr.) / St. Pr.
& G/L (Short) = (St.Pr. - Cur.Pr) / Cur. Pr.

It is a happy coincidence that my picks would then have an average combined ROI of 122.40%, but that of course is beside the point. I'm only interested in accuracy (and staying ahead of applefoot).


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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21196 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 1/15/2007 10:06 PM
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rhaaby

I do understand and appreciate the argument. In a short situation the price at which you cover is the 'buy' price and that at which you originally sold was the start price.

But..in reality for both long and short positions, the monies put at risk are in fact at the starting price, so I continue to think it appropriate to present the gain or loss as a percent change from the start price.

I've checked on a few contests and all I looked in on (including CAPS) handle shorts in this way.

You might want to bring the argument to the CAPS feedback board for a more nuanced argument.

http://boards.fool.com/Messages.asp?bid=117779

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21233 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 2/1/2007 8:18 AM
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Here is the update. Not much comment (in a rush today).

Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 1 rhaaby 50.13% MSHL $3.07 $4.21 37.1% TELK(S) $18.20 $6.71 63.1%
2 4 joseph714 40.48% CRIS $1.41 $1.42 0.7% CYTR $1.62 $2.92 80.2%
3 2 applefoot 27.20% NVGN $10.60 $12.43 17.3% MSHL $3.07 $4.21 37.1%
4 5 HelicalZz 21.98% CPHD $7.20 $8.27 14.9% VTIV $27.18 $35.09 29.1%
5 6 drPraveen 11.04% EXEL $9.87 $9.80 -0.7% MNTA $15.71 $19.29 22.8%
6 3 wadigo 10.81% ISIS $8.39 $10.39 23.8% NGEN $1.81 $1.77 -2.2%
7 10 CSOakes 6.77% MNTA $15.71 $19.29 22.8% ALKS $16.44 $14.92 -9.2%
8 8 Index 2.95% PBE $17.99 $18.52 2.9%
9 9 stratton6 -0.57% SNSS $4.92 $4.27 -13.2% BMRN $16.90 $18.94 12.1%
10 7 Hallucigenia -0.89% PYM.L 55.00 40.16 -26.98% BTA.AX 1.27 1.59 25.2%
11 14 JPG101 -3.57% GNBT $2.35 $1.71 -27.2% RNVO.L 163.00 195.75 20.1%
12 13 sano -4.95% GTOP $3.71 $3.81 2.7% ZGEN $18.25 $15.95 -12.6%
13 12 TurkeyBreath -5.26% UGNE $2.38 $2.68 12.6% LIFC $31.10 $23.91 -23.1%
14 11 missash -10.97% ELN $15.59 $12.45 -20.1% VRTX $36.00 $35.35 -1.8%
15 17 otter6 -11.20% LIFC $31.10 $23.91 -23.1% CRIS $1.41 $1.42 0.7%
16 15 vision1220 -12.15% ELN $15.59 $12.45 -20.1% ACOR(S) $16.60 $17.29 -4.2%
17 16 patelk10 -18.76% NKTR $15.37 $12.70 -17.4% ELN $15.59 $12.45 -20.1%
18 18 cliff -20.52% AGIX $13.69 $11.80 -13.8% GNBT $2.35 $1.71 -27.2%
19 19 hiddenflem -33.30% TELK $18.20 $6.71 -63.1% DSCO $2.60 $2.51 -3.5%
20 20 AlohaDan100 -44.24% COR $3.28 $1.12 -65.9% ACUS $3.49 $2.70 -22.6%
21 21 noptov52 -47.55% NFLD $14.38 $3.96 -72.5% ACUS $3.49 $2.70 -22.6%

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21270 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 2/17/2007 11:43 AM
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Well, we do indeed have a new leader. CytRx continues to show momentum since creating the RXi subsidiary.

I haven't followed biotech news so closely of late.

Here is one reason why:

http://www.geocities.com/zzfoool/IND.JPG
(I've got better shots, but they show a little too much info - LOL)

Those boxes on the conference table are an IND filing, headed (finally) to the FDA this weekend. It has been an exhausting but satisfying process.

Here are the current standings:

Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 2 joseph714 79.38% CRIS $1.41 $1.49 5.7% CYTR $1.62 $4.10 153.1%
2 1 rhaaby 55.30% MSHL $3.07 $4.35 41.7% TELK(S) $18.20 $5.66 68.9%
3 3 applefoot 28.87% NVGN $10.60 $12.30 16.0% MSHL $3.07 $4.35 41.7%
4 4 HelicalZz 26.35% CPHD $7.20 $8.35 16.0% VTIV $27.18 $37.16 36.7%
5 9 stratton6 7.35% SNSS $4.92 $4.61 -6.3% BMRN $16.90 $20.45 21.0%
6 10 Hallucigenia 6.60% PYM.L 55.00 44.50 -19.09% BTA.AX 1.27 1.68 32.3%
7 8 Index 3.67% PBE $17.99 $18.65 3.7%
8 5 drPraveen -0.75% EXEL $9.87 $11.28 14.3% MNTA $15.71 $13.23 -15.8%
9 6 wadigo -1.59% ISIS $8.39 $10.07 20.0% NGEN $1.81 $1.39 -23.2%
10 11 JPG101 -2.76% GNBT $2.35 $1.73 -26.4% RNVO.L 163.00 197.00 20.9%
11 7 CSOakes -4.30% MNTA $15.71 $13.23 -15.8% ALKS $16.44 $17.62 7.2%
12 12 sano -4.97% GTOP $3.71 $3.74 0.8% ZGEN $18.25 $16.29 -10.7%
13 15 otter6 -8.40% LIFC $31.10 $24.11 -22.5% CRIS $1.41 $1.49 5.7%
14 14 missash -10.10% ELN $15.59 $14.81 -5.0% VRTX $36.00 $30.53 -15.2%
15 17 patelk10 -10.15% NKTR $15.37 $13.02 -15.3% ELN $15.59 $14.81 -5.0%
16 13 TurkeyBreath -10.82% UGNE $2.38 $2.40 0.8% LIFC $31.10 $24.11 -22.5%
17 18 cliff -19.98% AGIX $13.69 $11.83 -13.6% GNBT $2.35 $1.73 -26.4%
18 16 vision1220 -24.88% ELN $15.59 $14.81 -5.0% ACOR(S) $16.60 $24.03 -44.8%
19 19 hiddenflem -37.53% TELK $18.20 $5.66 -68.9% DSCO $2.60 $2.44 -6.2%
20 20 AlohaDan100 -42.50% COR $3.28 $1.15 -64.9% ACUS $3.49 $2.79 -20.1%
21 21 noptov52 -46.09% NFLD $14.38 $4.01 -72.1% ACUS $3.49 $2.79 -20.1%

Zz

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Author: otter6 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21272 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 2/20/2007 7:20 PM
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can I change one of my selections from CRIS to DNDN and use my buy in price as the entry point??

LIFC earnings in early March... looking for a rebound after the last earnings release that was good except for their 07 outlook was a little less agressive than wall street was projecting...

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21273 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 2/20/2007 7:48 PM
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When I started this contest, I floated the consideration that we might allow a mid-year change. So that would be around 4/15. I think this would still be worth doing (only one company), but I don't want to know about them before April.

Honestly, I have no idea how I will deal with this scorecard-wise (headache no doubt).

Zz

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Author: otter6 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21274 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 2/20/2007 8:49 PM
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just kidding... although folks ought to take a look a DNDN as a possible investment.

and on CRIS, been one I have been "ill-timed" on since, oh, 2003 (?-no longer know when I first started watching it).

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21275 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 2/21/2007 8:29 AM
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I am also a long time holder of & accumulator of CRIS when it had been beaten down.

Also my other pick in contest as yours otter.

Even if for some reason the group goes with changing out of one company for another in the contest, I'm likely to stick with what I have.

That unless, the company traded out can somehow still factor in to ones final results?

I would agree with Ralph that it would be rather abit of a bookeeping headache for him and set up odd precident (spell?) for our contests up the road.

The simpler I suspect the better.

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Author: otter6 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21276 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 2/21/2007 3:14 PM
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don't worry, was just kidding around as my only other bio "non=pick" is doing ok in comparison to my other choices..

and lets just say, LIFC should be doing better... and hope it picks up going into earnings in believe its the first week of March...



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Author: AlohaDan100 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21280 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 2/22/2007 12:49 PM
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It's not how far I lag at the back stretch it's nipping others at the poll.

Assuming Dr. Stoll's enthusiasm for the FDA lifting the halt on 717 tests for ADHD is correct, look for COR to take off.

A big pharma deal should be in there somewhere.

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Author: Queen103 One star, 50 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21281 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 2/22/2007 4:59 PM
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Dan:

What a surprise to see COR up 47% today! I had picked some up at $1.41 only to see it fall. I'll try to listen to Dr. Stoll's talk now.

Thanks,
Q

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21298 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/1/2007 11:45 AM
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OK rather than comment on news of the past couple of weeks I'm going to get personal (perhaps too) with this update, and relate it to Cepheid, one of my selections.

Yesterday we had a baby (3rd), so I spent the good part of the last couple of days in the hospital. The baby was a week overdue, which is ironic since we spent the better part of mid December in a Boston hospital on the fear of a premature birth. My wife was not keen on induction, but agreed to have her water broken (after an antibiotic course) in part because of a positive Group B strep (GBS) test. A GBS test is the first 'product' of Cepheid's clinical PCR approved for labs of 'moderate complexity', which means that when adopted the test can be run in the hospital by trained staff, not sent out to a certified 'high complexity' lab.

I talked with an attending doctor about the GBS test, but didn't get much info on how the result was determined. I specifically asked whether they used PCR, but the doctor did not seem clear on 'how' the test result was obtained (to be fair, this was the attending and not her personal doctor, so I may have been brushed off a bit). I mentioned CPHD and said the company has a rapid test that may find its way into the hospitals labs and also commented that they were developing and seeking approval for an MSRA test as well.

MSRA is an antibiotic resistant life threatening infection. The doctor got serious and mentioned that MSRA has many hospital staffs on pins and needles and that she was aware of a recent maternal death post delivery that was attributed to the bug (no details and I didn't press).

So I continue to like what CPHD is developing and acknowledge the relevance of the tests, at least they have been relevant to my own recent experience. I should be more familiar with the current protocol for analysis.

Anyway, here is the update:

Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 1 joseph714 73.89% CRIS $1.41 $1.37 -2.8% CYTR $1.62 $4.06 150.6%
2 2 rhaaby 46.69% MSHL $3.07 $3.85 25.4% TELK(S) $18.20 $5.83 68.0%
3 4 HelicalZz 20.52% CPHD $7.20 $7.90 9.7% VTIV $27.18 $35.69 31.3%
4 3 applefoot 11.76% NVGN $10.60 $10.40 -1.9% MSHL $3.07 $3.85 25.4%
5 7 Index -2.50% PBE $17.99 $17.54 -2.5%
6 6 Hallucigenia -3.37% PYM.L 55.00 37.00 -32.73% BTA.AX 1.27 1.60 26.0%
7 10 JPG101 -4.39% GNBT $2.35 $1.74 -26.0% RNVO.L 163.00 191.00 17.2%
8 5 stratton6 -6.12% SNSS $4.92 $4.46 -9.3% BMRN $16.90 $16.41 -2.9%
9 9 wadigo -7.43% ISIS $8.39 $9.09 8.3% NGEN $1.81 $1.39 -23.2%
10 16 TurkeyBreath -10.28% UGNE $2.38 $2.50 5.0% LIFC $31.10 $23.14 -25.6%
11 12 sano -11.93% GTOP $3.71 $3.52 -5.1% ZGEN $18.25 $14.83 -18.7%
12 11 CSOakes -12.87% MNTA $15.71 $11.80 -24.9% ALKS $16.44 $16.30 -0.9%
13 8 drPraveen -13.25% EXEL $9.87 $9.71 -1.6% MNTA $15.71 $11.80 -24.9%
14 13 otter6 -14.22% LIFC $31.10 $23.14 -25.6% CRIS $1.41 $1.37 -2.8%
15 14 missash -17.07% ELN $15.59 $12.74 -18.3% VRTX $36.00 $30.29 -15.9%
16 15 patelk10 -21.08% NKTR $15.37 $11.70 -23.9% ELN $15.59 $12.74 -18.3%
17 18 vision1220 -22.72% ELN $15.59 $12.74 -18.3% ACOR(S) $16.60 $21.11 -27.2%
18 17 cliff -23.61% AGIX $13.69 $10.78 -21.3% GNBT $2.35 $1.74 -26.0%
19 20 AlohaDan100 -36.15% COR $3.28 $1.67 -49.1% ACUS $3.49 $2.68 -23.2%
20 19 hiddenflem -43.41% TELK $18.20 $5.83 -68.0% DSCO $2.60 $2.11 -18.8%
21 21 noptov52 -48.29% NFLD $14.38 $3.83 -73.4% ACUS $3.49 $2.68 -23.2%

Zz




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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21299 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/1/2007 12:47 PM
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Whoa. Didn't expect that profoundly & applicable of personal experience Ralph.

So glad that things are working out with your growing family. Between this & last weeks filing work displayed in your photo, you all are having abit more excitement than I suspect you were looking for.

Take care & pass along my best wishes to your wife please.



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Author: TurkeyBreath Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21300 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/1/2007 3:41 PM
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...Rank LW Contestant...

Would some kind sole tell me what LW means to this dumb-koff?

TB

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21301 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/1/2007 7:20 PM
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TB

Would some kind sole tell me what LW means

Not a dumb question at all. It's a holdover from Wadigo's spreadsheet. It means Last Week. Now, the contest is not updated weekly - so it's an inappropriate abbreviation, but it serves its purpose. Anyway, it's the ranking last time I posted the standings. It can be a real pain to initially format the spreadsheet so that the columns line up when posting, so a two letter letter code max was needed. I doubt LU - last update, or LP - last posting would have been clearer anyway.

Zz

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Author: Hallucigenia Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21302 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/2/2007 5:55 AM
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Much hurrahs on the good news.

they were developing and seeking approval for an MSRA test as well.

MSRA is an antibiotic resistant life threatening infection. The doctor got serious and mentioned that MSRA has many hospital staffs on pins and needles and that she was aware of a recent maternal death post delivery that was attributed to the bug (no details and I didn't press).


It's MRSA - methicillin resistant staph aureus. Been big news in the UK for a couple of years now, and when they went back and studied it, they reckon that it was probably responsible for nearly 2000 deaths/year that had been attributed to other things. My former mother-out-law was almost one of them. Hence lots of headlines in the tabloids about killer bugs etc. It means that the last few years just about any UK company with an angle on infection control or anything to do with bacteria have put out press releases on how they're working on MRSA and its less friendly cousins VISA (vancomycin-intermediate SA) and VRSA (obvious), in the same way all their US equivalents now mention anthrax and homeland defence. So Cepheid are just now working on MRSA, there's probably several British companies some way ahead of them - and our hospitals are now paranoid about having alcohol handwashes everywhere, having got a bit sloppy about that kind of thing.

There's been some good coverage in places like New Scientist, but even Nature has got caught up in the scare a bit.



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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21303 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/2/2007 6:25 PM
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And oh by the way - the BioZZF CAPS port:

http://caps.fool.com/ViewPlayer.aspx?t=01004413597707936679

Appears to have a player 'score' of < 20.

It is actually 0.5.

We are ranked 23688 out of 23713. Ouch!

Zz

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21304 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/2/2007 6:41 PM
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Now that is some talent to be able to get to that level.

We ought eliminate CYTR from my thingy & I bet we could get to the bottom?

What a bunch of maroons.

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Author: TurkeyBreath Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21305 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/4/2007 7:34 PM
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...Would some kind sole tell me what LW means

Not a dumb question at all. It's a holdover from Wadigo's spreadsheet. It means Last Week...


Thanks,

TB

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21322 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/16/2007 8:48 AM
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The recent market volatility has not been kind to the biotechnology sector.

Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 1 joseph714 78.13% CRIS $1.41 $1.42 0.7% CYTR $1.62 $4.14 155.6%
2 2 rhaaby 50.03% MSHL $3.07 $4.01 30.6% TELK(S) $18.20 $5.56 69.5%
3 3 HelicalZz 27.17% CPHD $7.20 $8.66 20.3% VTIV $27.18 $36.44 34.1%
4 4 applefoot 12.15% NVGN $10.60 $9.93 -6.3% MSHL $3.07 $4.01 30.6%
5 6 Hallucigenia -2.01% PYM.L 55.00 40.66 -26.07% BTA.AX 1.27 1.55 22.0%
6 5 Index -4.34% PBE $17.99 $17.21 -4.3%
7 8 stratton6 -8.79% SNSS $4.92 $4.16 -15.4% BMRN $16.90 $16.54 -2.1%
8 9 wadigo -9.74% ISIS $8.39 $9.12 8.7% NGEN $1.81 $1.30 -28.2%
9 14 otter6 -11.17% LIFC $31.10 $23.93 -23.1% CRIS $1.41 $1.42 0.7%
10 10 TurkeyBreath -11.32% UGNE $2.38 $2.39 0.4% LIFC $31.10 $23.93 -23.1%
11 17 vision1220 -11.86% ELN $15.59 $12.71 -18.5% ACOR(S) $16.60 $17.47 -5.2%
12 13 drPraveen -12.03% EXEL $9.87 $9.55 -3.2% MNTA $15.71 $12.44 -20.8%
13 11 sano -12.08% GTOP $3.71 $3.45 -7.0% ZGEN $18.25 $15.12 -17.2%
14 7 JPG101 -13.23% GNBT $2.35 $1.67 -28.9% RNVO.L 163.00 167.05 2.5%
15 12 CSOakes -13.90% MNTA $15.71 $12.44 -20.8% ALKS $16.44 $15.29 -7.0%
16 15 missash -20.11% ELN $15.59 $12.71 -18.5% VRTX $36.00 $28.17 -21.8%
17 16 patelk10 -21.99% NKTR $15.37 $11.45 -25.5% ELN $15.59 $12.71 -18.5%
18 19 AlohaDan100 -27.09% COR $3.28 $2.17 -33.8% ACUS $3.49 $2.78 -20.3%
19 18 cliff -32.36% AGIX $13.69 $8.79 -35.8% GNBT $2.35 $1.67 -28.9%
20 20 hiddenflem -44.53% TELK $18.20 $5.56 -69.5% DSCO $2.60 $2.09 -19.6%
21 21 noptov52 -46.68% NFLD $14.38 $3.88 -73.0% ACUS $3.49 $2.78 -20.3%

Zz

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Author: sano Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21325 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/17/2007 10:00 AM
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rhaaby 50.03% MSHL $3.07 $4.01 30.6% TELK(S) $18.20 $5.56 69.5%

If TELK start price is 18.2 and current is 5.56 , was there a massive split or something?

s

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21326 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/17/2007 11:16 AM
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No, but rhaaby chose to short it for the contest, thusly what is bad for the company is good for his contest score.

The sly fellow.

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Author: sano Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21330 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/18/2007 1:15 PM
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No, but rhaaby chose to short it for the contest

Ah, of course! I see said the blind man.

sano



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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21391 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/30/2007 11:08 AM
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How is it that no one had Dendreon in the contest!!??

Oy vey - missed opportunity for bragging rights (you all know there is no prize right?).

Anyway - update over the weekend - which is looking pretty good for me right now.

Zz

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Author: vision1220 Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21394 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/30/2007 4:10 PM
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I'm kicking myself since I decided to short ACOR instead of sticking with my original pick of DNDN. I guess I shouldn't get too mad since in reality I own the stock.

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21396 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/30/2007 6:14 PM
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vision

I'm kicking myself since I decided to short ACOR instead of sticking with my original pick of DNDN. I guess I shouldn't get too mad since in reality I own the stock.

Was this my fault? Was DNDN not elligible at the time - I should go back and check. If it was my doing - wow, sorry about that.

Nope, I checked, I think it was OK price-wise.

Zz

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Author: vision1220 Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21397 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/30/2007 7:22 PM
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Z,

Not your fault at all. I just second guessed myself and went on a hunch which obviously backfired since I shorted ACOR and it is up at least 15%.

Lesson learned. Even in contests stick with what you know even though what you know may be wrong.

V

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21398 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 3/30/2007 7:37 PM
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Another (real) CAPS contest where Dendreon is dominating is here.

http://caps.fool.com/Contest.aspx?pgid=6641

Real money on the line - all the current leaders picked Dendreon (including me - but I'm not near the top due to modest accuracy).

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21399 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 4/1/2007 8:32 PM
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Latest update below. I'm back in 2nd, largely due to Cepheid getting Cramered earlier in the week, so it's likely a temporary gain. Joseph has a very solid lead.

The big news in biotechnology was of course Dendreon passing muster with the review committee - on to approval more than likely. Of more interest in the contest was some news just after the last update. Atherogenics did not find efficacy in it's latest trial - it may not be dead, as subsets may have shown some promise - but it was bad news for Cliff. Brian wrote a couple of articles on this:

http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2007/03/20/heart-attack-at-atherogenics.aspx
http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2007/03/28/atherogenics-splices-the-data.aspx

Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 1 joseph714 98.65% CRIS $1.41 $1.52 7.8% CYTR $1.62 $4.69 189.5%
2 3 HelicalZz 52.94% CPHD $7.20 $11.88 65.0% VTIV $27.18 $38.29 40.9%
3 2 rhaaby 48.76% MSHL $3.07 $3.91 27.4% TELK(S) $18.20 $5.43 70.2%
4 4 applefoot 11.84% NVGN $10.60 $10.21 -3.7% MSHL $3.07 $3.91 27.4%
5 6 Index -0.17% PBE $17.99 $17.96 -0.2%
6 13 sano -1.44% GTOP $3.71 $4.15 11.9% ZGEN $18.25 $15.56 -14.7%
7 5 Hallucigenia -3.13% PYM.L 55.00 39.00 -29.09% BTA.AX 1.27 1.56 22.8%
8 7 stratton6 -3.20% SNSS $4.92 $4.50 -8.5% BMRN $16.90 $17.26 2.1%
9 9 otter6 -5.95% LIFC $31.10 $24.97 -19.7% CRIS $1.41 $1.52 7.8%
10 12 drPraveen -8.40% EXEL $9.87 $9.94 0.7% MNTA $15.71 $12.96 -17.5%
11 8 wadigo -9.40% ISIS $8.39 $9.27 10.5% NGEN $1.81 $1.28 -29.3%
12 14 JPG101 -10.09% GNBT $2.35 $1.71 -27.2% RNVO.L 163.00 174.50 7.1%
13 15 CSOakes -11.79% MNTA $15.71 $12.96 -17.5% ALKS $16.44 $15.44 -6.1%
14 10 TurkeyBreath -12.38% UGNE $2.38 $2.26 -5.0% LIFC $31.10 $24.97 -19.7%
15 17 patelk10 -14.89% NKTR $15.37 $13.06 -15.0% ELN $15.59 $13.29 -14.8%
16 11 vision1220 -15.87% ELN $15.59 $13.29 -14.8% ACOR(S) $16.60 $19.42 -17.0%
17 16 missash -18.43% ELN $15.59 $13.29 -14.8% VRTX $36.00 $28.04 -22.1%
18 18 AlohaDan100 -25.85% COR $3.28 $2.27 -30.8% ACUS $3.49 $2.76 -20.9%
19 20 hiddenflem -39.51% TELK $18.20 $5.43 -70.2% DSCO $2.60 $2.37 -8.8%
20 21 noptov52 -47.91% NFLD $14.38 $3.61 -74.9% ACUS $3.49 $2.76 -20.9%
21 19 cliff -53.35% AGIX $13.69 $2.81 -79.5% GNBT $2.35 $1.71 -27.2%

Until April 15

Zz - who resisted posting made up contest results in the spirit of the day.

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21445 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 4/16/2007 1:34 AM
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Not much to note (taxes still due). I see that Wadigo made a strong move due mostly to Nanogen landing a government contract.


Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 1 joseph714 107.55% CRIS $1.41 $1.71 21.3% CYTR $1.62 $4.76 193.8%
2 2 HelicalZz 56.29% CPHD $7.20 $12.19 69.3% VTIV $27.18 $38.94 43.3%
3 3 rhaaby 47.42% MSHL $3.07 $3.89 26.7% TELK(S) $18.20 $5.80 68.1%
4 4 applefoot 11.89% NVGN $10.60 $10.29 -2.9% MSHL $3.07 $3.89 26.7%
5 11 wadigo 10.59% ISIS $8.39 $9.75 16.2% NGEN $1.81 $1.90 5.0%
6 5 Index 5.28% PBE $17.99 $18.94 5.3%
7 6 sano 4.22% GTOP $3.71 $4.58 23.5% ZGEN $18.25 $15.51 -15.0%
8 9 otter6 2.31% LIFC $31.10 $25.92 -16.7% CRIS $1.41 $1.71 21.3%
9 10 drPraveen 0.88% EXEL $9.87 $10.88 10.2% MNTA $15.71 $14.38 -8.5%
10 8 stratton6 -0.48% SNSS $4.92 $4.64 -5.7% BMRN $16.90 $17.70 4.7%
11 7 Hallucigenia -2.28% PYM.L 55.00 39.50 -28.18% BTA.AX 1.27 1.57 23.6%
12 13 CSOakes -7.18% MNTA $15.71 $14.38 -8.5% ALKS $16.44 $15.47 -5.9%
13 17 missash -10.61% ELN $15.59 $14.81 -5.0% VRTX $36.00 $30.16 -16.2%
14 14 TurkeyBreath -11.06% UGNE $2.38 $2.25 -5.5% LIFC $31.10 $25.92 -16.7%
15 15 patelk10 -11.25% NKTR $15.37 $12.68 -17.5% ELN $15.59 $14.81 -5.0%
16 12 JPG101 -12.84% GNBT $2.35 $1.66 -29.4% RNVO.L 163.00 169.00 3.7%
17 18 AlohaDan100 -14.26% COR $3.28 $2.10 -36.0% ACUS $3.49 $3.75 7.4%
18 16 vision1220 -23.41% ELN $15.59 $14.81 -5.0% ACOR(S) $16.60 $23.54 -41.8%
19 20 noptov52 -31.08% NFLD $14.38 $4.37 -69.6% ACUS $3.49 $3.75 7.4%
20 19 hiddenflem -35.03% TELK $18.20 $5.80 -68.1% DSCO $2.60 $2.55 -1.9%
21 21 cliff -53.36% AGIX $13.69 $3.10 -77.4% GNBT $2.35 $1.66 -29.4%

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21481 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 5/2/2007 7:41 AM
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Recommendations: 4
Hallucigenia and otter6 making a move into the top 5. joseph714 looks hard to beat.

Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 1 joseph714 105.04% CRIS $1.41 $2.17 53.9% CYTR $1.62 $4.15 156.2%
2 2 HelicalZz 50.77% CPHD $7.20 $11.34 57.5% VTIV $27.18 $39.15 44.0%
3 3 rhaaby 45.54% MSHL $3.07 $3.80 23.8% TELK(S) $18.20 $5.95 67.3%
4 8 otter6 23.14% LIFC $31.10 $28.73 -7.6% CRIS $1.41 $2.17 53.9%
5 11 Hallucigenia 13.12% PYM.L 55.00 47.34 -13.93% BTA.AX 1.27 1.78 40.2%
6 4 applefoot 10.71% NVGN $10.60 $10.35 -2.4% MSHL $3.07 $3.80 23.8%
7 6 Index 7.23% PBE $17.99 $19.29 7.2%
8 5 wadigo 2.21% ISIS $8.39 $9.92 18.2% NGEN $1.81 $1.56 -13.8%
9 9 drPraveen -1.43% EXEL $9.87 $10.53 6.7% MNTA $15.71 $14.21 -9.5%
10 12 CSOakes -4.38% MNTA $15.71 $14.21 -9.5% ALKS $16.44 $16.57 0.8%
11 10 stratton6 -6.23% SNSS $4.92 $4.45 -9.6% BMRN $16.90 $16.41 -2.9%
12 14 TurkeyBreath -8.01% UGNE $2.38 $2.18 -8.4% LIFC $31.10 $28.73 -7.6%
13 7 sano -9.12% GTOP $3.71 $3.70 -0.3% ZGEN $18.25 $14.97 -18.0%
14 16 JPG101 -10.74% GNBT $2.35 $1.60 -31.9% RNVO.L 163.00 180.00 10.4%
15 13 missash -13.17% ELN $15.59 $14.00 -10.2% VRTX $36.00 $30.19 -16.1%
16 15 patelk10 -16.52% NKTR $15.37 $11.86 -22.8% ELN $15.59 $14.00 -10.2%
17 20 hiddenflem -18.85% TELK $18.20 $5.95 -67.3% DSCO $2.60 $3.37 29.6%
18 17 AlohaDan100 -20.01% COR $3.28 $2.55 -22.3% ACUS $3.49 $2.87 -17.8%
19 18 vision1220 -30.37% ELN $15.59 $14.00 -10.2% ACOR(S) $16.60 $24.99 -50.5%
20 19 noptov52 -42.51% NFLD $14.38 $4.71 -67.2% ACUS $3.49 $2.87 -17.8%
21 21 cliff -54.42% AGIX $13.69 $3.16 -76.9% GNBT $2.35 $1.60 -31.9%

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21522 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 5/18/2007 7:51 PM
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Recommendations: 5
OK, enough delay. Update below. Whatever weakness CRIS has shown hasn't shaken Joseph's hold on first place (but Otter took a hit). Elan shareholders (and contest holders) finally have some news to make them smile - the PML virus that nearly croaked Tysabri has not reared it's ugly head of late http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070503/biogen_idec_tysabri.html very good news for the company and more so for those with MS.

A lot has happened in between contest updates - the biggest of which is the fall of Dendreon due to the approvable letter from the FDA. No effect on the contest - but the rise and fall of Dendreon just again emphasizes the degree of risk inherent in the sector.

Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 1 joseph714 77.57% CRIS $1.41 $1.50 6.4% CYTR $1.62 $4.03 148.8%
2 2 HelicalZz 45.06% CPHD $7.20 $11.01 52.9% VTIV $27.18 $37.29 37.2%
3 3 rhaaby 37.10% MSHL $3.07 $3.30 7.5% TELK(S) $18.20 $6.06 66.7%
4 5 Hallucigenia 18.46% PYM.L 55.00 56.25 2.27% BTA.AX 1.27 1.71 34.6%
5 7 Index 6.61% PBE $17.99 $19.18 6.6%
6 11 stratton6 0.06% SNSS $4.92 $4.44 -9.8% BMRN $16.90 $18.57 9.9%
7 8 wadigo -0.43% ISIS $8.39 $9.94 18.5% NGEN $1.81 $1.46 -19.3%
8 4 otter6 -0.99% LIFC $31.10 $28.50 -8.4% CRIS $1.41 $1.50 6.4%
9 6 applefoot -1.73% NVGN $10.60 $9.44 -10.9% MSHL $3.07 $3.30 7.5%
10 15 missash -3.07% ELN $15.59 $16.60 6.5% VRTX $36.00 $31.46 -12.6%
11 12 TurkeyBreath -3.76% UGNE $2.38 $2.40 0.8% LIFC $31.10 $28.50 -8.4%
12 9 drPraveen -5.30% EXEL $9.87 $10.84 9.8% MNTA $15.71 $12.50 -20.4%
13 10 CSOakes -8.27% MNTA $15.71 $12.50 -20.4% ALKS $16.44 $17.08 3.9%
14 16 patelk10 -9.68% NKTR $15.37 $11.40 -25.8% ELN $15.59 $16.60 6.5%
15 13 sano -10.06% GTOP $3.71 $3.62 -2.4% ZGEN $18.25 $15.02 -17.7%
16 14 JPG101 -10.31% GNBT $2.35 $1.48 -37.0% RNVO.L 163.00 189.75 16.4%
17 19 vision1220 -15.04% ELN $15.59 $16.60 6.5% ACOR(S) $16.60 $22.67 -36.6%
18 17 hiddenflem -15.66% TELK $18.20 $6.06 -66.7% DSCO $2.60 $3.52 35.4%
19 18 AlohaDan100 -21.61% COR $3.28 $2.68 -18.3% ACUS $3.49 $2.62 -24.9%
20 20 noptov52 -48.24% NFLD $14.38 $4.09 -71.6% ACUS $3.49 $2.62 -24.9%
21 21 cliff -59.93% AGIX $13.69 $2.35 -82.8% GNBT $2.35 $1.48 -37.0%

For those intested in the BioZZF CAPS avatar that holds the contest entries - CAPS rating 0.08 Rank 28938 out of 28990 players (Ouch).

Until the end of the month

Zz

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Author: wadigo Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21523 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 5/18/2007 11:17 PM
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Recommendations: 0
I don't know what is going on with Nanogen (ngen) other than Shorts have added almost a 1/2 million shares this last month.
What they know and the rest wonder about is a ponder.
Almost makes me think of hedge fund manipulation of the little guys. OR, maybe I should read the 10k more closely.
(If I was a hedge fund, there is lots of time to play the stock before any 'new news'. And if some surprise comes up, it's so unknown that I could knock down any enthusiasm.
Ah, to have so much of other peoples money to play with.......bg

Share Statistics
Average Volume (3 month)3: 1,075,160
Average Volume (10 day)3: 529,218
Shares Outstanding: 72.47M
Float: 59.23M
% Held by Insiders4: 10.39%
% Held by Institutions4: 11.70%
Shares Short (as of 10-Apr-07)3: 1.78M
Short Ratio (as of 10-Apr-07)3: 1.3
Short % of Float (as of 10-Apr-07)3: 2.50%
Shares Short (prior month)3: 1.18M <I/>



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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21571 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 6/1/2007 8:18 AM
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Recommendations: 5
A strong move by the holders of Elan (missah, vision, patelk), which announced it would move forward with Wyeth into Phase III with it's investigational drug for Alzheimer's.

Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 1 joseph714 77.69% CRIS $1.41 $1.39 -1.4% CYTR $1.62 $4.16 156.8%
2 2 HelicalZz 50.53% CPHD $7.20 $11.70 62.5% VTIV $27.18 $37.66 38.6%
3 3 rhaaby 34.66% MSHL $3.07 $3.14 2.3% TELK(S) $18.20 $6.00 67.0%
4 4 Hallucigenia 15.03% PYM.L 55.00 52.04 -5.38% BTA.AX 1.27 1.72 35.4%
5 5 Index 7.39% PBE $17.99 $19.32 7.4%
6 10 missash 4.77% ELN $15.59 $19.72 26.5% VRTX $36.00 $29.90 -16.9%
7 17 vision1220 3.31% ELN $15.59 $19.72 26.5% ACOR(S) $16.60 $19.90 -19.9%
8 14 patelk10 0.14% NKTR $15.37 $11.34 -26.2% ELN $15.59 $19.72 26.5%
9 12 drPraveen -2.24% EXEL $9.87 $11.08 12.3% MNTA $15.71 $13.08 -16.7%
10 7 wadigo -3.31% ISIS $8.39 $10.06 19.9% NGEN $1.81 $1.33 -26.5%
11 6 stratton6 -3.52% SNSS $4.92 $4.30 -12.6% BMRN $16.90 $17.84 5.6%
12 11 TurkeyBreath -4.32% UGNE $2.38 $2.40 0.8% LIFC $31.10 $28.15 -9.5%
13 9 applefoot -4.38% NVGN $10.60 $9.43 -11.0% MSHL $3.07 $3.14 2.3%
14 8 otter6 -5.45% LIFC $31.10 $28.15 -9.5% CRIS $1.41 $1.39 -1.4%
15 15 sano -6.98% GTOP $3.71 $3.57 -3.8% ZGEN $18.25 $16.39 -10.2%
16 13 CSOakes -9.53% MNTA $15.71 $13.08 -16.7% ALKS $16.44 $16.06 -2.3%
17 19 AlohaDan100 -13.46% COR $3.28 $2.97 -9.5% ACUS $3.49 $2.88 -17.5%
18 16 JPG101 -13.69% GNBT $2.35 $1.40 -40.4% RNVO.L 163.00 184.25 13.0%
19 18 hiddenflem -18.32% TELK $18.20 $6.00 -67.0% DSCO $2.60 $3.39 30.4%
20 20 noptov52 -53.35% NFLD $14.38 $1.55 -89.2% ACUS $3.49 $2.88 -17.5%
21 21 cliff -61.48% AGIX $13.69 $2.39 -82.5% GNBT $2.35 $1.40 -40.4%

Zz

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Author: alcear Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21572 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 6/1/2007 1:17 PM
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since i missed the boat on the 06/07 contest are you going to have an 08 version?

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21574 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 6/1/2007 5:11 PM
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alcear,

I think so. This one runs into October. I can see a contest kicking off again in 2008. It really hasn't been burdensome to do updates, and it gets me to check on occasional news from companies I wasn't otherwise following - so I've enjoyed running it.

I know TMF is looking to have contests run off the CAPS platform. This one isn't run off CAPS, but I do use the CAPS avatar I set up for the contest (BioZZF) to do the updates (most of them).

I think a message board format has more to offer, putting down occasional corporate updates and such, but simplicity favors CAPS. I also like getting the eclectic picks that may not be CAPS eligible, such as those on foreign exchanges.

Zz

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Author: TMFBreakerRob Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Home Fool Supernova Phoenix 1
Mission Team Member CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21576 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 6/2/2007 2:43 PM
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"I know TMF is looking to have contests run off the CAPS platform. This one isn't run off CAPS, but I do use the CAPS avatar I set up for the contest (BioZZF) to do the updates (most of them).

I think a message board format has more to offer, putting down occasional corporate updates and such, but simplicity favors CAPS. I also like getting the eclectic picks that may not be CAPS eligible, such as those on foreign exchanges."

Whatever you prefer, Zz.

The Fool is here to be a service to subscribers, not to force folks into a mold. I think we're all here to learn in a friendly and decent environment, which are about the only constraints that come to mind <oh yeah, respecting copyrights!>.

I'll hope to hop on for a 2008 contest as well. A bad pick in a contest is not as painful as my biotech picks that are backed up by diminished funds from even earlier picks. I can at least serve as a bad example. ;)

Rob


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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21647 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 6/20/2007 9:28 AM
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Recommendations: 6
Busy half month in biotech, but first the trash talk. One could argue that I held off on the update just long enough for Curis to sink a bit more and boost me ahead of of Joseph by a sliver. Purely coincidental .. heh, heh, heh.

Elan continues to be a strong stock on bapineuzumab trials initiating and potential expanded use for tysabri in Crohn's. News from Telik continues to be bad (insanely bad?)
http://www.fool.com/investing/high-growth/2007/06/06/is-telik-insane.aspx

The biggest move was by JPG101. Recent strength from drug delivery firm Generex Biotech and Renovo group (what do they do again?) caused a jump from 18 to 9.

Here are the results to date.

Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 2 HelicalZz 58.56% CPHD $7.20 $13.06 81.4% VTIV $27.18 $36.89 35.7%
2 1 joseph714 58.17% CRIS $1.41 $1.24 -12.1% CYTR $1.62 $3.70 128.4%
3 3 rhaaby 43.89% MSHL $3.07 $3.28 6.8% TELK(S) $18.20 $3.47 80.9%
4 4 Hallucigenia 21.10% PYM.L 55.00 55.69 1.25% BTA.AX 1.27 1.79 40.9%
5 7 vision1220 13.83% ELN $15.59 $21.80 39.8% ACOR(S) $16.60 $18.62 -12.2%
6 6 missash 7.79% ELN $15.59 $21.80 39.8% VRTX $36.00 $27.27 -24.3%
7 5 Index 4.61% PBE $17.99 $18.82 4.6%
8 8 patelk10 4.46% NKTR $15.37 $10.62 -30.9% ELN $15.59 $21.80 39.8%
9 18 JPG101 2.15% GNBT $2.35 $1.73 -26.4% RNVO.L 163.00 213.00 30.7%
10 9 drPraveen -3.93% EXEL $9.87 $11.67 18.2% MNTA $15.71 $11.61 -26.1%
11 11 stratton6 -4.33% SNSS $4.92 $4.20 -14.6% BMRN $16.90 $17.91 6.0%
12 12 TurkeyBreath -5.03% UGNE $2.38 $2.10 -11.8% LIFC $31.10 $31.63 1.7%
13 14 otter6 -5.18% LIFC $31.10 $31.63 1.7% CRIS $1.41 $1.24 -12.1%
14 10 wadigo -6.64% ISIS $8.39 $9.13 8.8% NGEN $1.81 $1.41 -22.1%
15 13 applefoot -7.05% NVGN $10.60 $8.38 -20.9% MSHL $3.07 $3.28 6.8%
16 15 sano -7.62% GTOP $3.71 $3.74 0.8% ZGEN $18.25 $15.32 -16.1%
17 16 CSOakes -17.22% MNTA $15.71 $11.61 -26.1% ALKS $16.44 $15.07 -8.3%
18 19 hiddenflem -22.97% TELK $18.20 $3.47 -80.9% DSCO $2.60 $3.51 35.0%
19 17 AlohaDan100 -24.17% COR $3.28 $2.86 -12.8% ACUS $3.49 $2.25 -35.5%
20 21 cliff -54.39% AGIX $13.69 $2.41 -82.4% GNBT $2.35 $1.73 -26.4%
21 20 noptov52 -62.65% NFLD $14.38 $1.47 -89.8% ACUS $3.49 $2.25 -35.5%

Zz - ducking and covering from Jospeh.

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21648 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 6/20/2007 9:38 AM
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Recommendations: 3
ZZ - I'm going to give you such a pinch!

(borrowing a phrase from waffle of social board chit chatters)

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Author: JPG101 Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21667 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 6/30/2007 4:07 AM
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Recommendations: 0
Thanks to the organisers of the contest. Is there another one for the next year?

Renovo makes anti scaring medication. UK company not really followed in the US from what I can tell. That might be an advantage (less price volatility)? They base their research on pylogenetics (for those of us who believe in Darwin!). Interesting stuff. Well capitalised company.
Their technology could have far reaching implications well beyond the scar market.

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Author: Hallucigenia Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21668 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 6/30/2007 8:35 AM
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UK company not really followed in the US from what I can tell. That might be an advantage (less price volatility)?

Heh heh - dream on, you mean people in the UK don't follow shares? OK, AIM isn't as bad as the Toronto Venture, but it has its moments....

There's been a bit about Renovo on the UK Fool - this thread has links back to some of the threads :

http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=10587129&sort=whole

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Author: JPG101 Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21670 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 7/1/2007 11:48 AM
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UK company not really followed in the US from what I can tell. That might be an advantage (less price volatility)? (from JPG101)

Heh heh - dream on, you mean people in the UK don't follow shares? OK, AIM isn't as bad as the Toronto Venture, but it has its moments....
(from Hallucigenia)

My reflection or question... is maybe more in the observation that the biotech companies I follow that aren t traded in the US (or widely followed by US investors) seem to be less volatile and maybe cheaper. Obviously not very scientific as an observation but could differences in who follows the shares make a difference in price volatility and valuation of companies? Some very interesting and cheap companies on Toronto, London and Europe... I wonder if the same companies were they listed in the US instead of in Canada or Europe wouldn t be much more expensive (and more volatile)? This could possibly be an advantage for long term buyers? Cytori Therapeutics (CYTX) 'left' Europe to trade in the US I presume because they saw a valuation advantage. There can maybe be significant arbritage advantages for long term buyers?


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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21672 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 7/1/2007 1:05 PM
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JPG101,

You mention Cytori as a company that decided to trade predominantly on US exchanges.

Interestingly, I've read a couple of articles in the past few months that have said the trend for startup biotechs and other 'small' companies is opposite. That IPOs of small US biotechs on the London exchange are increasing largely due to cost issues i.e. SorbOx compliance issues. Cash burning microcaps simply can't justify the cost of trading on a US exchange.

There were a couple of articles in Nature on this, but they are not free (so no link).

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21721 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 7/19/2007 8:12 AM
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Had the spreadsheet on a thumb drive which got misplaced (temporarily). Nearly a big oops.

Here is where we stand now.


Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 1 HelicalZz 80.75% CPHD $7.20 $16.10 123.6% VTIV $27.18 $37.48 37.9%
2 2 joseph714 65.67% CRIS $1.41 $1.26 -10.6% CYTR $1.62 $3.92 142.0%
3 3 rhaaby 40.55% MSHL $3.07 $3.06 -0.3% TELK(S) $18.20 $3.38 81.4%
4 4 Hallucigenia 15.91% PYM.L 55.00 47.38 -13.85% BTA.AX 1.27 1.85 45.7%
5 6 missash 10.79% ELN $15.59 $21.92 40.6% VRTX $36.00 $29.15 -19.0%
6 5 vision1220 7.53% ELN $15.59 $21.92 40.6% ACOR(S) $16.60 $20.84 -25.5%
7 14 wadigo 4.70% ISIS $8.39 $10.94 30.4% NGEN $1.81 $1.43 -21.0%
8 7 Index 3.45% PBE $17.99 $18.61 3.4%
9 8 patelk10 -0.10% NKTR $15.37 $9.10 -40.8% ELN $15.59 $21.92 40.6%
10 12 TurkeyBreath -0.52% UGNE $2.38 $2.29 -3.8% LIFC $31.10 $31.95 2.7%
11 13 otter6 -3.95% LIFC $31.10 $31.95 2.7% CRIS $1.41 $1.26 -10.6%
12 9 JPG101 -4.63% GNBT $2.35 $1.70 -27.7% RNVO.L 163.00 193.00 18.4%
13 10 drPraveen -8.59% EXEL $9.87 $11.31 14.6% MNTA $15.71 $10.72 -31.8%
14 15 applefoot -9.03% NVGN $10.60 $8.72 -17.7% MSHL $3.07 $3.06 -0.3%
15 11 stratton6 -9.93% SNSS $4.92 $3.48 -29.3% BMRN $16.90 $18.49 9.4%
16 16 sano -10.27% GTOP $3.71 $3.83 3.2% ZGEN $18.25 $13.91 -23.8%
17 17 CSOakes -21.84% MNTA $15.71 $10.72 -31.8% ALKS $16.44 $14.48 -11.9%
18 19 AlohaDan100 -29.83% COR $3.28 $2.93 -10.7% ACUS $3.49 $1.78 -49.0%
19 18 hiddenflem -43.79% TELK $18.20 $3.38 -81.4% DSCO $2.60 $2.44 -6.2%
20 20 cliff -56.60% AGIX $13.69 $1.98 -85.5% GNBT $2.35 $1.70 -27.7%
21 21 noptov52 -69.74% NFLD $14.38 $1.37 -90.5% ACUS $3.49 $1.78 -49.0%


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Author: wadigo Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21726 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 7/24/2007 1:39 AM
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Whoo Hoo! or is it Hoo Whoo!
...

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21740 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 8/1/2007 8:20 AM
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Standings. The market of late has not been kind to most speculative investments. Good thing this isn't a 'best mortgage initiator' contest. Ouch.


Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 1 HelicalZz 67.70% CPHD $7.20 $14.75 104.9% VTIV $27.18 $35.48 30.5%
2 3 rhaaby 40.55% MSHL $3.07 $2.95 -3.9% TELK(S) $18.20 $2.73 85.0%
3 2 joseph714 35.36% CRIS $1.41 $1.18 -16.3% CYTR $1.62 $3.03 87.0%
4 6 vision1220 9.53% ELN $15.59 $18.73 20.1% ACOR(S) $16.60 $16.78 -1.1%
5 4 Hallucigenia 8.40% PYM.L 55.00 44.75 -18.64% BTA.AX 1.27 1.72 35.4%
6 5 missash 4.93% ELN $15.59 $18.73 20.1% VRTX $36.00 $32.30 -10.3%
7 7 wadigo 1.54% ISIS $8.39 $10.41 24.1% NGEN $1.81 $1.43 -21.0%
8 8 Index -0.17% PBE $17.99 $17.96 -0.2%
9 10 TurkeyBreath -6.33% UGNE $2.38 $2.11 -11.3% LIFC $31.10 $30.69 -1.3%
10 11 otter6 -8.82% LIFC $31.10 $30.69 -1.3% CRIS $1.41 $1.18 -16.3%
11 12 JPG101 -10.97% GNBT $2.35 $1.60 -31.9% RNVO.L 163.00 179.25 10.0%
12 14 applefoot -12.00% NVGN $10.60 $8.47 -20.1% MSHL $3.07 $2.95 -3.9%
13 9 patelk10 -15.11% NKTR $15.37 $7.63 -50.4% ELN $15.59 $18.73 20.1%
14 15 stratton6 -15.57% SNSS $4.92 $3.05 -38.0% BMRN $16.90 $18.06 6.9%
15 13 drPraveen -19.79% EXEL $9.87 $9.69 -1.8% MNTA $15.71 $9.78 -37.7%
16 16 sano -19.81% GTOP $3.71 $3.60 -3.0% ZGEN $18.25 $11.56 -36.7%
17 17 CSOakes -25.56% MNTA $15.71 $9.78 -37.7% ALKS $16.44 $14.24 -13.4%
18 18 AlohaDan100 -35.96% COR $3.28 $2.66 -18.9% ACUS $3.49 $1.64 -53.0%
19 19 hiddenflem -51.73% TELK $18.20 $2.73 -85.0% DSCO $2.60 $2.12 -18.5%
20 20 cliff -60.66% AGIX $13.69 $1.45 -89.4% GNBT $2.35 $1.60 -31.9%
21 21 noptov52 -72.05% NFLD $14.38 $1.28 -91.1% ACUS $3.49 $1.64 -53.0%


Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21753 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 8/8/2007 10:17 AM
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Cepheid reported Q2 results today.

The market liked it.

http://www.lastnightdiy.org/gallery/images/04%20-%20fat%20lady%20sings.jpg

While she warms up, you can read the Q2 press release here:

http://biz.yahoo.com/prnews/070807/latu171.html

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21776 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 8/16/2007 8:19 AM
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Market volatility has been the issue since the last update. Plenty of people giving money back to Mr. Market.

On a purely anecdotal basis, my sense of biotech has done well. My CAPs (mine, not the contest one) portfolio has gone from a score of teens-to-20s to All Star status. I 'play' a healthcare portfolio in CAPs with emphasis on biotechnology support companies (WAT, TMO, ect.). To see your CAPS port skyrocket (in score) while your real port slowly bleeds is quite ironic.



Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 1 HelicalZz 90.28% CPHD $7.20 $16.86 134.2% VTIV $27.18 $39.79 46.4%
2 3 joseph714 41.37% CRIS $1.41 $1.01 -28.4% CYTR $1.62 $3.42 111.1%
3 2 rhaaby 33.24% MSHL $3.07 $2.50 -18.6% TELK(S) $18.20 $2.72 85.1%
4 4 vision1220 9.53% ELN $15.59 $18.90 21.2% ACOR(S) $16.60 $16.96 -2.2%
5 6 missash 9.09% ELN $15.59 $18.90 21.2% VRTX $36.00 $34.90 -3.1%
6 5 Hallucigenia 5.95% PYM.L 55.00 44.66 -18.80% BTA.AX 1.27 1.66 30.7%
7 8 Index -0.22% PBE $17.99 $17.95 -0.2%
8 7 wadigo -1.42% ISIS $8.39 $11.35 35.3% NGEN $1.81 $1.12 -38.1%
9 9 TurkeyBreath -2.95% UGNE $2.38 $2.14 -10.1% LIFC $31.10 $32.40 4.2%
10 14 stratton6 -10.26% SNSS $4.92 $3.06 -37.8% BMRN $16.90 $19.82 17.3%
11 13 patelk10 -11.90% NKTR $15.37 $8.45 -45.0% ELN $15.59 $18.90 21.2%
12 10 otter6 -12.09% LIFC $31.10 $32.40 4.2% CRIS $1.41 $1.01 -28.4%
13 16 sano -14.05% GTOP $3.71 $3.81 2.7% ZGEN $18.25 $12.63 -30.8%
14 11 JPG101 -15.53% GNBT $2.35 $1.53 -34.9% RNVO.L 163.00 169.25 3.8%
15 15 drPraveen -15.55% EXEL $9.87 $10.13 2.6% MNTA $15.71 $10.41 -33.7%
16 17 CSOakes -16.50% MNTA $15.71 $10.41 -33.7% ALKS $16.44 $16.56 0.7%
17 12 applefoot -24.80% NVGN $10.60 $7.31 -31.0% MSHL $3.07 $2.50 -18.6%
18 18 AlohaDan100 -35.90% COR $3.28 $2.56 -22.0% ACUS $3.49 $1.75 -49.9%
19 19 hiddenflem -50.99% TELK $18.20 $2.72 -85.1% DSCO $2.60 $2.16 -16.9%
20 20 cliff -62.88% AGIX $13.69 $1.25 -90.9% GNBT $2.35 $1.53 -34.9%
21 21 noptov52 -70.58% NFLD $14.38 $1.25 -91.3% ACUS $3.49 $1.75 -49.9%


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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21801 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 8/31/2007 11:02 PM
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Well, we're coming around the backturn and ready for the stretch run. I've got a healthy lead, but....well, we'll see. All it takes is a positive phase II trial or an approval to bounce many of these selections.

I checked in with the CAPS port built on this - we are no longer in the bottom 10 of all players. Now a whole 250 or so are worse (35003 out of 35254) for a rating of 0.65. It is always good for a chuckle, but such is life in a contest built to swing for the fences.

As for CAPS, I've been getting active on my Blog again (HelicalZz not BioZZF). I really, really like the CAPS blog feature. Plan on commenting later tonight about a microcap biotech support company I like (teaser).

Anyway to the standings.


Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 1 HelicalZz 102.68% CPHD $7.20 $18.68 159.4% VTIV $27.18 $39.66 45.9%
2 3 joseph714 47.19% CRIS $1.41 $1.00 -29.1% CYTR $1.62 $3.62 123.5%
3 2 rhaaby 37.69% MSHL $3.07 $2.80 -8.8% TELK(S) $18.20 $2.88 84.2%
4 6 missash 16.27% ELN $15.59 $19.38 24.3% VRTX $36.00 $38.96 8.2%
5 5 Hallucigenia 9.85% PYM.L 55.00 43.75 -20.45% BTA.AX 1.27 1.78 40.2%
6 4 vision1220 7.97% ELN $15.59 $19.38 24.3% ACOR(S) $16.60 $17.99 -8.4%
7 8 Index 3.67% PBE $17.99 $18.65 3.7%
8 7 wadigo 1.16% ISIS $8.39 $12.34 47.1% NGEN $1.81 $1.00 -44.8%
9 9 TurkeyBreath -2.94% UGNE $2.38 $2.09 -12.2% LIFC $31.10 $33.06 6.3%
10 14 stratton6 -8.81% SNSS $4.92 $2.72 -44.7% BMRN $16.90 $21.48 27.1%
11 15 drPraveen -9.27% EXEL $9.87 $11.25 14.0% MNTA $15.71 $10.60 -32.5%
12 13 patelk10 -10.97% NKTR $15.37 $8.26 -46.3% ELN $15.59 $19.38 24.3%
13 10 otter6 -11.39% LIFC $31.10 $33.06 6.3% CRIS $1.41 $1.00 -29.1%
14 17 CSOakes -15.02% MNTA $15.71 $10.60 -32.5% ALKS $16.44 $16.85 2.5%
15 11 JPG101 -16.06% GNBT $2.35 $1.48 -37.0% RNVO.L 163.00 171.00 4.9%
16 12 applefoot -16.94% NVGN $10.60 $7.94 -25.1% MSHL $3.07 $2.80 -8.8%
17 16 sano -19.87% GTOP $3.71 $3.49 -5.9% ZGEN $18.25 $12.08 -33.8%
18 19 hiddenflem -47.66% TELK $18.20 $2.88 -84.2% DSCO $2.60 $2.31 -11.2%
19 18 AlohaDan100 -52.41% COR $3.28 $1.90 -42.1% ACUS $3.49 $1.30 -62.8%
20 20 cliff -58.50% AGIX $13.69 $2.74 -80.0% GNBT $2.35 $1.48 -37.0%
21 21 noptov52 -75.60% NFLD $14.38 $1.66 -88.5% ACUS $3.49 $1.30 -62.8%


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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21803 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 8/31/2007 11:55 PM
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Blogs up

http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewBlog.aspx?t=01004587832930584449

Zz

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21804 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 9/1/2007 10:45 AM
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Ain't over till it's over there ZZ.

On the upside, Cliff remains NOT in the basement, & in a curious note I do believe with all our contests, I have placed 2nd at the finish line in each.

Looks at this point that may repeat, we shall see.

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21827 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 9/17/2007 8:34 AM
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Not much commentary today. Second place is tight with 1 month to go.


Rank LW Contestant Avg.G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L Comp. St.Pr. Cur.Pr. % G/L

1 1 HelicalZz 114.04% CPHD $7.20 $20.21 180.7% VTIV $27.18 $40.06 47.4%
2 3 rhaaby 43.89% MSHL $3.07 $3.21 4.7% TELK(S) $18.20 $3.07 83.1%
3 2 joseph714 43.85% CRIS $1.41 $1.08 -23.4% CYTR $1.62 $3.42 111.1%
4 4 missash 17.56% ELN $15.59 $19.16 22.9% VRTX $36.00 $40.40 12.2%
5 8 wadigo 12.66% ISIS $8.39 $14.13 68.4% NGEN $1.81 $1.03 -43.1%
6 6 vision1220 9.34% ELN $15.59 $19.16 22.9% ACOR(S) $16.60 $17.30 -4.2%
7 7 Index 5.00% PBE $17.99 $18.89 5.0%
8 5 Hallucigenia -0.89% PYM.L 55.00 38.00 -30.91% BTA.AX 1.27 1.64 29.1%
9 9 TurkeyBreath -1.29% UGNE $2.38 $2.02 -15.1% LIFC $31.10 $35.00 12.5%
10 10 stratton6 -4.54% SNSS $4.92 $2.77 -43.7% BMRN $16.90 $22.75 34.6%
11 13 otter6 -5.43% LIFC $31.10 $35.00 12.5% CRIS $1.41 $1.08 -23.4%
12 16 applefoot -7.30% NVGN $10.60 $8.57 -19.2% MSHL $3.07 $3.21 4.6%
13 11 drPraveen -10.39% EXEL $9.87 $10.47 6.1% MNTA $15.71 $11.49 -26.9%
14 12 patelk10 -11.03% NKTR $15.37 $8.46 -45.0% ELN $15.59 $19.16 22.9%
15 15 JPG101 -11.47% GNBT $2.35 $1.62 -31.1% RNVO.L 163.00 176.25 8.1%
16 14 CSOakes -14.28% MNTA $15.71 $11.49 -26.9% ALKS $16.44 $16.16 -1.7%
17 17 sano -17.61% GTOP $3.71 $3.57 -3.8% ZGEN $18.25 $12.51 -31.5%
18 18 hiddenflem -39.07% TELK $18.20 $3.07 -83.1% DSCO $2.60 $2.73 5.0%
19 19 AlohaDan100 -50.84% COR $3.28 $1.90 -42.1% ACUS $3.49 $1.41 -59.6%
20 20 cliff -59.29% AGIX $13.69 $1.71 -87.5% GNBT $2.35 $1.62 -31.1%
21 21 noptov52 -72.25% NFLD $14.38 $2.17 -84.9% ACUS $3.49 $1.41 -59.6%


Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21850 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 9/26/2007 11:17 PM
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I am so not looking forward to posting the table this weekend.  I like the updated board format and embedded functionality - just expect it will be tough on me pasting out of Excel.  It took a good bit to get it right initially, and that was working with wadigo's template.

Zz

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Author: wadigo Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21856 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 9/27/2007 2:03 PM
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Sure wish the contest would end, so that the short pressure will relax on my second pick. (kidding of course) ...bg

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21858 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 9/27/2007 4:14 PM
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It ends soon - 10/15.

I was writing when I started it and had intended to form some articles around it.  I never did use it.  Still - it wasn't too much work, and no one griped when I was a day or two behind on an update, so I'm content to do it again.  I figure a new contest will start ~ 12/15 or so with similar rules (we can debate these later).

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21870 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/3/2007 8:04 AM
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                             Rank   LW   Contestant   Avg.G/L   Comp.   Price   Cap   St.Pr.   Cur.Pr.   % G/L   Comp.   Price   Cap   St.Pr.    Cur.Pr.   % G/L       1   1   HelicalZz   150.71%   CPHD   $6.75   3699M   $7.20    $24.10    234.7%   VTIV   $57.74   135B   $27.18    $45.31    66.7%       2   3   joseph714   42.39%   CRIS   $1.52   274M   $1.41    $1.03    -27.0%   CYTR   $1.26   89M   $1.62    $3.43    111.7%       3   2   rhaaby         39.78%   MSHL   
   
   $3.07    $2.94    -4.2%   TELK(S)   
   
   $18.20    $2.95    83.8%       4   4   missash         20.73%   ELN   $15.62   6.7B   $15.59    $21.42    37.4%   VRTX   $46.11   4.04B   $36.00    $37.46    4.1%       5   5   wadigo          14.69%   ISIS   $8.25   624M   $8.39    $15.49    84.6%   NGEN   $1.19   144M   $1.81    $0.81    -55.2%       6   6   vision1220   8.79%   ELN   $15.62   6.7B   $15.59    $21.42    37.4%   ACOR(S)   $4.52   324M   $16.60    $19.89    -19.8%       7   7   Index         7.73%   PBE   
   
   $17.99    $19.38    7.7%   
   
   
   
   
   
       8   9   TurkeyBreath   1.47%   UGNE   $2.35   236M   $2.38    $1.87    -21.4%   LIFC   
   
   $31.10    $38.68    24.4%       9   8   Hallucigenia   -0.49%   PYM.L   
   
   55.00    38.00    -30.91%   BTA.AX   
   
   1.27    1.65    29.9%       10   11   otter6         -1.29%   LIFC   $30.44   1.02B   $31.10    $38.68    24.4%   CRIS   $1.52   274M   $1.41    $1.03    -27.0%       11   14   patelk10   -2.45%   NKTR   $14.50   1.3B   $15.37    $8.87    -42.3%   ELN   $15.62   6.7B   $15.59    $21.42    37.4%       12   10   stratton6   -2.59%   SNSS   
   
   $4.92    $2.17    -55.9%   BMRN   
   
   $16.90    $25.47    50.7%       13   17   sano            -6.11%   GTOP   $3.18   114M   $3.71    $4.32    16.4%   ZGEN   18..09   1.21B   $18.25    $13.02    -28.7%       14   15   JPG101         -7.27%   GNBT   
   
   $2.35    $1.50    -36.2%   RNVO.L   
   
   163.00    198.25    21.6%       15   16   CSOakes        -7.33%   MNTA   $14.87   464M   $15.71    $11.59    -26.2%   ALKS   $15.65   1.59B   $16.44    $18.34    11.6%       16   13   drPraveen   -8.35%   EXEL   
   
   $9.87    $10.81    9.5%   MNTA   
   
   $15.71    $11.59    -26.2%       17   12   applefoot   -13.39%   NVGN   $10.45   204M   $10.60    $8.21    -22.5%   MSHL   $3.19   202M   $3.07    $2.94    -4.2%       18   18   hiddenflem   -31.51%   TELK   $17.62   921M   $18.20    $2.95    -83.8%   DSCO   $2.21   137M   $2.60    $3.14    20.8%       19   19   AlohaDan100   -48.75%   COR   $3.40   118M   $3.28    $1.83    -44.2%   ACUS   $3.58   103M   $3.49    $1.63    -53.3%       20   20   cliff           -61.95%   AGIX   $13.50   533M   $13.69    $1.68    -87.7%   GNBT   $0.66   60M   $2.35    $1.50    -36.2%       21   21   noptov52   -69.76%   NFLD   
   
   $14.38    $1.98    -86.2%   ACUS   
   
   $3.49    $1.63    -53.3%

Working on this, Ill post it later.

Zz
   


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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21872 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/3/2007 8:23 AM
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Recommendations: 1
oh-oh.

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21873 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/3/2007 9:48 AM
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Rank  LW   Contestant   Avg.G/L   Comp.      St.Pr.     Cur.Pr.  % G/L       Comp.         St.Pr.     Cur.Pr.     % G/L
1    1    HelicalZz        150.71%  CPHD       $7.20     $24.10   234.7%     VTIV             $27.18   $45.31             66.7%
2    3    joseph714      42.39%    CRIS         $1.41     $1.03     -27.0%      CYTR           $1.62     $3.43             111.7%
3          2       rhaaby            39.78%    MSHL       $3.07     $2.94     -4.2%        TELK(S)      $18.20   $2.95             83.8%4          4       missash          20.73%    ELN          $15.59   $21.42   37.4%       VRTX           $36.00   $37.46             4.1%
5          5       wadigo           14.69%    ISIS           $8.39     $15.49   84.6%       NGEN          $1.81     $0.81        -55.2%
6          6       vision1220     8.79%      ELN          $15.59   $21.42   37.4%       ACOR(S)    $16.60   $19.89      -19.8%
7          7       Index               7.73%      PBE          $17.99   $19.38   7.7%                                                   8          9       TurkeyBreath1.47%       UGNE       $2.38     $1.87     -21.4%      LIFC             $31.10   $38.68             24.4%9          8       Hallucigenia   -0.49%     PYM.L       55.00     38.00     -30.91%   BTA.AX       1.27       1.65             29.9%10        11     otter6              -1.29%     LIFC          $31.10   $38.68   24.4%       CRIS            $1.41     $1.03        -27.0%11        14     patelk10         -2.45%     NKTR        $15.37   $8.87     -42.3%      ELN             $15.59   $21.42             37.4%12        10     stratton6         -2.59%     SNSS       $4.92     $2.17     -55.9%      BMRN          $16.90   $25.47             50.7%13        17     sano                -6.11%     GTOP       $3.71     $4.32     16.4%       ZGEN          $18.25   $13.02      -28.7%14        15     JPG101          -7.27%     GNBT       $2.35     $1.50     -36.2%      RNVO.L       163.00   198.25             21.6%15        16     CSOakes       -7.33%     MNTA       $15.71   $11.59   -26.2%      ALKS           $16.44   $18.34             11.6%16        13     drPraveen      -8.35%     EXEL        $9.87     $10.81   9.5%         MNTA          $15.71   $11.59      -26.2%17        12     applefoot        -13.39%   NVGN       $10.60   $8.21     -22.5%      MSHL          $3.07     $2.94        -4.2%18        18     hiddenflem     -31.51%   TELK        $18.20   $2.95     -83.8%      DSCO         $2.60     $3.14             20.8%19        19     AlohaDan100-48.75%   COR         $3.28     $1.83     -44.2%      ACUS          $3.49     $1.63        -53.3%20        20     cliff                  -61.95%   AGIX         $13.69   $1.68     -87.7%      GNBT          $2.35     $1.50        -36.2%21        21     noptov52        -69.76%   NFLD        $14.38   $1.98     -86.2%      ACUS          $3.49     $1.63        -53.3% 


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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21874 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/3/2007 9:49 AM
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Hit submit by mistake - this is really painful

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21875 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/3/2007 10:24 AM
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Rank  LW   Contestant   Avg.G/L   Comp.    St.Pr.   Cur.Pr.  % G/L    Comp.    St.Pr.   Cur.Pr.  % G/L
1    1    HelicalZz     150.71%  CPHD      $7.20    $24.10   234.7%   VTIV      $27.18   $45.31             66.7%
2    3    joseph714     42.39%   CRIS      $1.41    $1.03    -27.0%   CYTR      $1.62     $3.43             111.7%
3    2    rhaaby        39.78%   MSHL      $3.07    $2.94    -4.2%   TELK(S)   $18.20   $2.95             83.8%
4    4    missash       20.73%   ELN       $15.59   $21.42   37.4%   VRTX      $36.00   $37.46             4.1%
5    5    wadigo        14.69%   ISIS      $8.39    $15.49   84.6%   NGEN      $1.81     $0.81        -55.2%
6    6    vision1220     8.79%   ELN       $15.59   $21.42   37.4%   ACOR(S)   $16.60   $19.89      -19.8%
7    7    Index          7.73%   PBE       $17.99   $19.38   7.7%                                                   
8    9   TurkeyBreath    1.47%   UGNE      $2.38    $1.87    -21.4%   LIFC      $31.10   $38.68             24.4%
9    8   Hallucigenia   -0.49%   PYM.L     55.00    38.00    -30.91%   BTA.AX    1.27       1.65             29.9%
10   11  otter6         -1.29%   LIFC      $31.10   $38.68   24.4%   CRIS      $1.41     $1.03        -27.0%
11   14  patelk10       -2.45%   NKTR      $15.37   $8.87    -42.3%   ELN       $15.59   $21.42             37.4%
12   10  stratton6      -2.59%   SNSS      $4.92    $2.17    -55.9%   BMRN      $16.90   $25.47             50.7%
13   17  sano           -6.11%   GTOP      $3.71    $4.32    16.4%   ZGEN      $18.25   $13.02      -28.7%
14   15  JPG101         -7.27%   GNBT      $2.35    $1.50    -36.2%   RNVO.L    163.00   198.25             21.6%
15   16  CSOakes       -7.33%    MNTA      $15.71   $11.59   -26.2%   ALKS      $16.44   $18.34             11.6%
16   13  drPraveen     -8.35%    EXEL      $9.87    $10.81   9.5%   MNTA      $15.71   $11.59      -26.2%
17   12  applefoot    -13.39%    NVGN      $10.60   $8.21    -22.5%   MSHL      $3.07     $2.94        -4.2%
18   18  hiddenflem   -31.51%    TELK      $18.20   $2.95    -83.8%   DSCO      $2.60     $3.14             20.8%
19   19  AlohaDan100  -48.75%   COR        $3.28    $1.83    -44.2%   ACUS      $3.49     $1.63        -53.3%
20   20  cliff        -61.95%   AGIX       $13.69   $1.68    -87.7%   GNBT      $2.35     $1.50        -36.2%
21   21  noptov52     -69.76%   NFLD       $14.38   $1.98    -86.2%      ACUS         $3.49     $1.63        -53.3%

Becuase this is killing me - I'm going to live with it like this.  I really enjoyed it when it was just one long line.

Anyway - only one update left, contest ends on 10/15 (Monday).  As I mentioned I will cue this up again in mid-December, so look for some rules discussion in Mid-November and be ready with picks in early Dec.

Zz


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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21876 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/3/2007 10:41 AM
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Good job, Zz.

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21878 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/4/2007 10:06 AM
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So today they go back to the older board formatting, where I would have no trouble with importing the table using the < pre > tags.

LOL

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21892 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/11/2007 10:48 AM
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Three trading days left to the end of the contest.

Isis is showing some closing speed down the homestretch and should move wadigo up the list. But...it looks like it may well be Aloha for Dan. Cortex Pharmaceuticals, already a weak pick, is getting hammered down another 50% today based on an FDA denial of a proposed clinical trial due to animal toxicity. Ouch.

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21897 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/15/2007 10:39 AM
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Some good movement today - my Cepheid pick is tanking a bit and Elan is showing a lot of upside movement thanks to Icahn's interest in Biogen.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071015/elan_biogen_tysabri_buyout.html

Final chart should be up tonight (unless TMF goes back to WISYWIG boards).

Zz

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Author: TurkeyBreath Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21898 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/15/2007 3:16 PM
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...Elan is showing a lot of upside movement thanks to Icahn's interest in Biogen.

Biogen [BIIB] is up about 20%. So who is this Carl Icahn? Better still, what company may I look up to try and determine if I want to own Icahn or sell my Biogen [BIIB]?

My BIIB is up ~100% since I bought it just after its dip in April 2005.

Thanks,

TB

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21899 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/15/2007 5:12 PM
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At least no one in the contest was waiting on the Memory Pharmaceutical (MEMY) clinical update - it was not good.

I see TELK had some positive news in the form of a clinical hold being removed - too little too late for hiddenfield (TELK bull), but a late contest kick in the pants for baby (TELK bear).

I just closed out the CAPS port of BioZZF, though the picks don't officially end until opening bell.

http://caps.fool.com/ViewPlayer.aspx?t=01004413597707936679

CAPS score 0.56 - 37243 out of 37479
Score: -411.32 - Accuracy: 28.57%

Not the final numbers, but close enough.

I'll have final results up ~ 6:30 or so.

Zz

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21900 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/15/2007 5:45 PM
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Final results!

I held on to win despite some late weakness in my picks. Isis had a stronger kick than Elan, so wadigo was able to finish up in 4th place inching out missash.

Rank	LW	Contestant	Avg.G/L	Comp.	St.Pr.	Cur.Pr.	% G/L	Comp.	St.Pr. 	Cur.Pr.	% G/L
1 1 HelicalZz 123.63% CPHD $7.20 $21.21 194.6% VTIV $27.18 $41.50 52.7%
2 2 joseph714 46.55% CRIS $1.41 $1.13 -19.9% CYTR $1.62 $3.45 113.0%
3 3 rhaaby 35.76% MSHL $3.07 $2.86 -6.8% TELK(S) $18.20 $3.94 78.4%
4 5 wadigo 29.48% ISIS $8.39 $17.37 107.0% NGEN $1.81 $0.94 -48.1%
5 4 missash 27.63% ELN $15.59 $24.17 55.0% VRTX $36.00 $36.08 0.2%
6 6 vision1220 17.52% ELN $15.59 $24.17 55.0% ACOR(S) $16.60 $19.92 -20.0%
7 7 Index 12.90% PBE $17.99 $20.31 12.9%
8 10 otter6 8.59% LIFC $31.10 $42.62 37.0% CRIS $1.41 $1.13 -19.9%
9 8 TurkeyBreath 6.34% UGNE $2.38 $1.80 -24.4% LIFC $31.10 $42.62 37.0%
10 11 patelk10 3.64% NKTR $15.37 $8.03 -47.8% ELN $15.59 $24.17 55.0%
11 16 drPraveen -0.06% EXEL $9.87 $11.97 21.3% MNTA $15.71 $12.35 -21.4%
12 12 stratton6 -1.66% SNSS $4.92 $2.00 -59.3% BMRN $16.90 $26.37 56.0%
13 9 Hallucigenia -3.37% PYM.L 55.00 37.00 -32.73% BTA.AX 1.27 1.60 26.0%
14 15 CSOakes -7.56% MNTA $15.71 $12.35 -21.4% ALKS $16.44 $17.47 6.3%
15 14 JPG101 -7.61% GNBT $2.35 $1.56 -33.6% RNVO.L 163.00 193.00 18.4%
16 17 applefoot -17.90% NVGN $10.60 $7.53 -29.0% MSHL $3.07 $2.86 -6.8%
17 13 sano -19.07% GTOP $3.71 $3.35 -9.7% ZGEN $18.25 $13.06 -28.4%
18 18 hiddenflem -40.52% TELK $18.20 $3.94 -78.4% DSCO $2.60 $2.53 -2.7%
19 20 cliff -60.02% AGIX $13.69 $1.86 -86.4% GNBT $2.35 $1.56 -33.6%
20 19 AlohaDan100 -68.55% COR $3.28 $0.71 -78.4% ACUS $3.49 $1.44 -58.7%
21 21 noptov52 -73.01% NFLD $14.38 $1.83 -87.3% ACUS $3.49 $1.44 -58.7%


Suspect I'll blog on this later tonight, and look for a discussion of rules for next years run ~ mid November (maybe with some polling).

Zz

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Author: joseph714 Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21901 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 10/15/2007 6:30 PM
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Much thanks Zz.

I would like to note that Cliff Did NOT end in last place - Yey Cliff.

I also knew, just knew, I would finish as I had in every contest we have had over the years, in 2nd place.

Somehow that actually feels appropriate & matches my demeanor rather well.

I have my list pretty much firmed up for our next endeavor, with about 10 companies to be whittled down.

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Author: Fuma102 Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21995 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 11/3/2007 11:11 PM
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Zz -

can I hop in on the 07-08 contest? when are write ups due - im working on mine now!

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Author: HelicalZz Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Coverage Fool CAPS All Star Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 21996 of 24974
Subject: Re: 2006-7 contest Date: 11/4/2007 12:09 AM
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Fuma,

Sure. I'll be looking for writeups in early December. Try to get it off by Dec 15.

Zz

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