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Author: rrjjgg Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 254191  
Subject: 2/24 Wave:DBA,GLD,EWZ Date: 2/24/2008 7:51 PM
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2/24/2008				
dba	 29.06	 58.83	 1.142950199	 1
epp	 -11.16	 -12.36	 -0.447487836	 10
ewj	 -9.73	 -14.15  -0.42554195	 9
ewm	 2.4	 27.51	 0.306268678	 4
gld	 18.46	 43.08	 0.809980835	 2
iev	 -13.15	 -2.23	 -0.398519587	 8
iwm	 -9.12	 -12.01	 -0.382960964	 7
ilf	 1.73	 50.65   0.455527903     3
spx	 -7.82	 -2.4	 -0.241431356	 6
bttrx	 -1.65	 4.88	 0.00327961	 5

  The rank is in the right column, the 50 day and 235 day returns 
are the first two 
numeric columns.  The formula is this version of Zee's formula
(8/3)*ln(1+50day returns/100)+ln(1+235dayreturns/100). 

 If the weights 185/21 for days 50 to 235 and 50/21 for 
the 50 day returns are used as in 
Mark's Wave machine, then factoring out the 185/21 term,  
and adjusting to 235 day  returns, the 
8/3 above becomes 
2.7=185/50-1.  Using this does not change the top 
ranks this week.
				
The Moose is still in GLD (DBA is not in his list, yet) 
and makes a case for being in a 
bear market with 
possible strength in gold, depending on what the Fed does.

If EWZ is added to the original list it would be third with 
numbers 4.35,81.31, 0.709.

rrjjgg
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Author: BBDok Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 207628 of 254191
Subject: Re: 2/24 Wave:DBA,GLD,EWZ Date: 2/24/2008 8:23 PM
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I think the 235d return for EPP should be positive and not negative (ie, 12.36 and not -12.36) giving a value of -0.20, not that this changes places of the top 3.
BBDok

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Author: Carchofa1 One star, 50 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 207632 of 254191
Subject: Re: 2/24 Wave:DBA,GLD,EWZ Date: 2/24/2008 9:49 PM
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The Moose is still in GLD (DBA is not in his list, yet)
and makes a case for being in a
bear market with
possible strength in gold, depending on what the Fed does.


Let's say for sake of argument that the Moose is correct and that we are going to see a drop in equities over the next month or so. I could see that there could still be a profit in GLD in that scenario (obviously). But what about DBA? If you were skittish about owning equities now, would you shy away from DBA also, or do you think DBA would be sufficiently uncorrelated (seems like it would be) to make it worthy of consideration.

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Author: TMT33 Two stars, 250 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 207633 of 254191
Subject: Re: 2/24 Wave:DBA,GLD,EWZ Date: 2/24/2008 9:58 PM
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There's no guarantees but the S & P 500 peaked on 10/9 at 1565. Since then DBA is up from 27.81 to 40.95 (up 46%). Not too shabby and a good argument for diversification with the Moose or Wave approach.

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Author: rrjjgg Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 207640 of 254191
Subject: Re: 2/24 Wave:DBA,GLD,EWZ Date: 2/25/2008 7:27 AM
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Hi BBDok,

Thanks, you're correct. EPP should have been -0.198 for new rank 7.

Carchofa 1,

As to DBA, I'm not into commodities trading, but I've read that grains, especially wheat, have been under supply pressure with low global wheat reserves. I've also read that Jim Rogers is making a case for sugar, cotton and, I think, cocoa. Since grains are necessary for many peoples survival, I don't think DBA will be stongly pressured by
what stock markets do.

rrjjgg

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