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Author: marsuculix One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 659  
Subject: 3Q2012 report - my take Date: 11/12/2012 4:51 AM
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hi fellow Fools,
Exelixis reported earnings last Wednesday:
Here is Seeking Alpha’s transcript of the conference call - thanks!
http://seekingalpha.com/article/989151-exelixis-ceo-discusse...

3Q12 Revenues: $13.3 million
3Q12 Operating expenses: $38.7
3Q12 GAAP loss: $32.8 million ($0.20/share)
3Q12 Cash Flow From Operations: ($34 million) this signifies an outflow!
Cash and investments: $674.7 million or roughly $4.06/share - roughly 87% of Fridays stock price.
2012 Guidance:
- Revenues are still expected to be $40-60 million for the year
- Operating expenses have been reduced to the $160-180 million range from $190-220 million.
- Exelixis expects to end the year with at least $600 million in cash and equivalents since equity and debt offerings are complete.

Clinical development plan:
I came to the conclusion that Exelixis' management team is not very shareholder friendly - numbers and time-lines are rather overestimated while management does usually deliver less than promised.
First of all I still hope that the PDUFA decision for cabo in MTC on 29th of November will be positive!
BUT: The COMET trials, especially COMET-1, will be extremely determining Exelixis’ future.

Collaboration with Roche/Genentech:
This partnership in the combo trial zelboraf & GDC-0973 is key. Roche is the ideal partner as this company is experienced and committed in the disease area and on top of this Roche' management IS focused and IS delivering (this is my impression after I talked to some Roche insiders...).
Study initiation/enrollment will be before the end of the year, I expect a very quick recruitment given Roche's experience and presence; top-line result are expected to be communicated in 4q 2014 (may be a bit earlier - at ESMO 2014?); Roche seems to be excited about GDC-0973 and highly committed to launch this medication in 2015 (first half?).

Questions:
1) What will exactly be the role of Exelixis marketing GDC-0973? What will be the costs to be paid by Exelixis?
2) Does this launch negatively influence the company's ability to drive cabo into the market?
3) Does Exelixis have a high quality sales force recruited, trained and ready to strike at the beginning of 2015? (Such a task absorbs a lot of money!) Will Exelixis again be forced to raise money at that time?
4) How would Roche/Genentech react when this sales force will be lacking performance? (I think this is a major concern of Roche...)
5) Is Exelixis' sales force able to co-promote GDC-0973 and simultaneously perform premarketing activities for cabo? How will this "cohabitation" go on?

To make it short, for me as a long-term investor in EXEL, these important questions have to be answered better sooner than later!

Fool on, marsuculix (still long and strong EXEL)
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