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Author: JediGALT Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: of 748977  
Subject: $475 million lottery Date: 5/16/2013 9:35 PM
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Ok.

I'm not a regular lottery player.

But I admit....

I really, really, really wanna win that $475 million jackpot.

I've invested $50.00 to that end.

That would be just frigging sweet.

Already started planning for it.

JediG
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Author: CCinOC Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682229 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/16/2013 11:06 PM
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I've invested $50.00 to that end.

I bought one ticket because one's as good as a hundred. You don't increase your odds of winning by spending $49 more.

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Author: JediGALT Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682231 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/16/2013 11:22 PM
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If I win I'm going to buy The Motley Fool and give 2828 sole powers to moderate and censor all posts.

JediG

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Author: Art53 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682236 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/16/2013 11:37 PM
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"Ok. I'm not a regular lottery player.But I admit....I really, really, really wanna win that $475 million jackpot.I've invested $50.00 to that end.That would be just frigging sweet.Already started planning for it."
JediG

---------------


The Powerball annuity has now grown to $550 Million dollars. The cash option is ~ $350 Million. It is my understanding that the IRS will take 35% so after taxes the cash option will be $228 million? Hardly anyone takes the annuity when they win.

I went out and splurged today and spent $12.00 on lottery tickets. $4.00 for Megamillion tickets which is up to $190 Million and $8.00 for 4 Powerball tickets.

The annuity payout for Powerball is indexed for inflation for 30 years so you end up getting more at the end than at the beginning. Megamillions jackpot annuity is a simple 26 year pay-out where you get the same amount for 26 years.

But like I said, almost everyone who wins takes the cash option, even though it is significantly smaller.

Art

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Author: bighairymike Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682239 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/17/2013 12:01 AM
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I've invested $50.00 to that end.

I bought one ticket because one's as good as a hundred. You don't increase your odds of winning by spending $49 more.


-------------

Yes you do, assuming you select different numbers. Consider a lottery with only ten possible outcomes - a ticket has just one digit. You buy a ticket, say with the number 3, and I buy two tickets with say 5 and 7. Now we pull a random number out of the hat. Who has a better chance of winning?

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Author: CCinOC Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682241 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/17/2013 12:44 AM
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Yes you do, assuming you select different numbers. Consider a lottery with only ten possible outcomes - a ticket has just one digit. You buy a ticket, say with the number 3, and I buy two tickets with say 5 and 7. Now we pull a random number out of the hat. Who has a better chance of winning?

To a certain extent, you're right, but the odds are still so small that one ticket or a hundred, you're extremely, infinitesimally unlikely to win. This question was answered by none other than Marilyn Vos Savant, famous for having the Guinness Book of World Record highest IQ.

http://www.parade.com/askmarilyn/2010/12/Improving-Lottery-O....

Q: Say the chances of winning a lottery are 1 in 50 million. A friend claims that if you buy two tickets, your chances improve to 1 in 25 million. Likewise, if you buy ten tickets, your chances go up to 1 in 5 million. I think he must be wrong. While ten tickets would improve your chances, they wouldn't go as high as 1 in 5 million. Who is right?

Marilyn responds:

Your friend is correct. One ticket = 1/50 million; two tickets = 2/50 million; and ten tickets = 10/50 million.

***

In other words, 1 in 50 million or 10 in 50 million, your odds are still so slim that buying nine more tickets won't help much--if at all.

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Author: 2ndHalf One star, 50 posts Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682242 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/17/2013 12:55 AM
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But if you win it is cool.

I once won $100 in Vegas, and I had a good a time. Of course on other occasions I lost, but still had a good time! There is no free lunch, only attitude.

CN

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Author: CCinOC Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682245 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/17/2013 2:43 AM
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There is no free lunch, only attitude.

I once read a study that concluded that the crotchety-est cancer patients had the highest survival rate. Apparently, the nastiest, most cantankerous people tend to do the best, presumably because they’re fighters and just too ornery to die, and that “nice” people tend to do worse and die like dogs.

I suspect that one reason why people are encouraged to buck up and put on a brave face is that a patient with a positive attitude is a lot easier on the people around them than one who keeps breaking down and weeping.

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Author: JediGALT Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Favorite Fools Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682293 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/17/2013 11:07 AM
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Last night I reached a tentative plan for the first $46 million.

More planning needed.

It was fun.

JediG

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Author: mbarr Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682295 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/17/2013 12:59 PM
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I bought one ticket because one's as good as a hundred. You don't increase your odds of winning by spending $49 more.

Tickets are $2 each.

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Author: warrl Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682316 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/17/2013 4:21 PM
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Q: Say the chances of winning a lottery are 1 in 50 million. A friend claims that if you buy two tickets, your chances improve to 1 in 25 million. Likewise, if you buy ten tickets, your chances go up to 1 in 5 million. I think he must be wrong. While ten tickets would improve your chances, they wouldn't go as high as 1 in 5 million. Who is right?

Marilyn responds:

Your friend is correct. One ticket = 1/50 million; two tickets = 2/50 million; and ten tickets = 10/50 million.

***

In other words, 1 in 50 million or 10 in 50 million, your odds are still so slim that buying nine more tickets won't help much--if at all.


Marilyn is incorrect on this, twice over.

If your chance of winning by buying one ticket in one drawing is 1 in 50 million, your chance of winning by buying one ticket in each of 10 consecutive drawings is indeed 1 in 5 million.

But your chance of winning by buying 10 *different* tickets in *one* drawing is actually very-very-very-slightly better than that. (According to Excel, it's 0.000000200000000116773
where a 1-in-5-million chance would terminate just after the 2.) That's because if ticket #1 doesn't happen to have the one winning combination out of the 50 million possibilities, there are only 49,999,999 remaining combinations. And if none of the first 9 tickets win, the tenth ticket has one chance in 49,999,991.

There have actually been lottery drawings where the cash-out value of the grand prize exceeded the cost of buying a ticket for every possible combination. If you did buy one ticket for every combination, you would be guaranteed to win. You would not be guaranteed to make a profit, though, because of the risk that you might hold one of several winning tickets, and thus not get the full prize to yourself.

Now in my opinion, the main value of a lottery ticket is not in the real-world chance of winning. Instead it's in the fact that it puts some pretty neat imaginings and daydreams into the realm of possibility. A second ticket in the same drawing doesn't add to THAT at ALL. (It improves probability - but possibility is binary.) In fact, if you carefully avoid any news about whether there was a winner, a single ticket is good for at least a couple months.

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Author: LordFoolman Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682331 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/17/2013 6:22 PM
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Remember even if you win the lottery, at the end everyone dies.

I know Art likes to say this. But in about 20-30 years, if you are fairly healthy, there will be big changes in life extension programs. Those currently below 50-55 years old have good chance of extending their lives to 150-200 years old. Those babies born today have a chance to live to 1000 years old (not a typo) or indefinitely. Yes it seems crazy, but progress in the technological and genomics areas will be permitting stuff like this soon.

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Author: Art53 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682342 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/17/2013 7:32 PM
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"In fact, if you carefully avoid any news about whether there was a winner, a single ticket is good for at least a couple months." - warrl

from the frequently asked questions on the Powerball site:

DO POWERBALL TICKETS EXPIRE?

"Yes. The Universe is decaying and nothing lasts forever. Ticket expiration periods vary from state to state - from 90 days to one year. They may also change from time to time. The back of your ticket will often give the expiration period for your state. If it is not on the back of your ticket, you might check with your state lottery by using the map. For obvious reasons, we don't want to give you wrong information about the time frame for cashing tickets with your lottery. In rare cases, your elected officials will change the expiration period (sometimes they run out of other stuff to vote on). They may shorten it even though you may find an old brochure or old ticket stock with a longer claim period. Often the lottery will honor your ticket in such a case, but if you plan to wait longer than 90 days to claim a big prize, you might just call up the lottery or go to the online site and double check on the expiration period."


http://www.powerball.com/pb_contact.asp


Art

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Author: Art53 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682345 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/17/2013 7:46 PM
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"I know Art likes to say this. But in about 20-30 years, if you are fairly healthy, there will be big changes in life extension programs. Those currently below 50-55 years old have good chance of extending their lives to 150-200 years old. Those babies born today have a chance to live to 1000 years old (not a typo) or indefinitely. Yes it seems crazy, but progress in the technological and genomics areas will be permitting stuff like this soon." - LordFoolman


I would only be interested in extending my life if they could completely get rid of the pain and take me back to the way I was when I was in 20's and early 30's.

Otherwise I'll just stay with the current plan and see what's on the other side.

Art

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Author: CCinOC Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682361 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/17/2013 10:30 PM
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[Powerball] Ticket expiration periods vary from state to state - from 90 days to one year.

Oh! I didn't know this. I've been throwing them away.

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Author: CCinOC Big funky green star, 20000 posts Top Recommended Fools Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682362 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/17/2013 10:32 PM
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Those babies born today have a chance to live to 1000 years old (not a typo) or indefinitely.

I don't believe this for a single minute.

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Author: Art53 Big funky green star, 20000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682373 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/17/2013 11:57 PM
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"Those babies born today have a chance to live to 1000 years old (not a typo) or indefinitely." - Foolman
------------------------------------
"I don't believe this for a single minute." - Catherine

--------------------------------


Neither did I but I didn't want to get in an argument so I just ignored it. I worked in biomedical research for 20 years. I've heard and seen many a researcher "toot their own horn" to drum up support for their research so they could continue to live in the manner to which they'd grown accustomed...

but, (big butt), the complexity of the body is so complex that there is no way that we will ever be able to control it to the point where we can prolong life for a thousand years. I'm not even sure that 200 years is possible? Maybe 120 years? I don't know.

Chemicals that turn on one group of cells oftentimes turn off the growth receptors of another type of cell, everything is in a very complex balance, like a ballet going on inside our bodies, if it gets off kilter by even a little bit everything goes haywire. That is why the old adage about "if a little bit is good more is even better" is completely wrong.

In the olden days if you lived past childhood you had a good chance of living to your late 60's or 70's but it was the childhood diseases that killed a lot of children.

We've learned how to keep kids alive but old folks keep dying. Heck, they don't even have to necessarily be all that old. When it's your time, it's your time.

Art

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Author: BGinNJ Big gold star, 5000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore) Number: 682434 of 748977
Subject: Re: $475 million lottery Date: 5/18/2013 5:55 PM
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<We've learned how to keep kids alive but old folks keep dying.>


I agree that the human body is a very complex machine. I also do not see 200 year old people, let alone 1000 year old ones.

Yet I can clearly see a huge difference in people in general that has taken place during my lifetime. An awful lot of people in their 50's looked real old when I was a kid and a teenager. Many of them made social security a solvent program because they did not live to collect a single SS payment. Today, many people in their 80's look very healthy and vigorous. We always had people live in to their 80's and 90's. It just seems that we have a lot more of them today and that a much larger percentage of them look significantly better than those people in their 50's that I remember as a kid.

I had one grandmother live to 87 (the other 3 died much, much younger). She was born in the mid 1880's. She had to endure the deaths of her two siblings before they were 5, her father before she was 7 and her mother when she was around 15. So while she lived a long life everyone around her did not. She lost two of her 5 children to illnesses in the 1920's. She lost her husband when he was 50 in the 1930's. None of that was at all unusual. Two of her surviving children didn't make it to 60. The one that lived to her mid 60's spent the last 6 years of her life in a nursing home after not following her doctors advice for years.

It is hard to quantify just where genes leave off and your environment and personal habits dominate. My mom died from colon cancer in the 1970's. They operated on her and removed dozens of polyps. Unfortunately there were many more that they were not able to remove that had already spread to other areas. If you were to chart the lives of my mother and father, my father would score much lower on the health scale. He smoked much more than my mom did, his diet was not very good and his exercising pretty much ended when his stint in WWII was over. Yet he lived for almost 20 more years than my mom did. Go figure.

With both of them and other family members as a guidline, I have made multiple choices on the things that I do have some control over. I don't smoke. I have usually exercised a fair amount. I have a somewhat reasonable diet. I try to keep my mind and body active. When there is an issue healthwise, I tend to address it rather than ignore it. I look at it all as improving the odds, not rigging the game.

Anyway, we often forget that things like vaccines, screenings, medications and just general awareness have all contributed to longer lifespans for those who choose to pay attention to them. How far one can push the limits of those lifespans is something that will be played out in the decades ahead. I suspect that we will see some who make it to 125-150.

Of course this assumes that our culture does not backslide significantly. IOW, if educating your daughters results in bottles of acid being tossed in your face or a sentence of lopping off your arm, tongue or your entire head, than a healthy lifestyle won't make a bit of difference to your lifespan.

Then again Tom Cruise and many members of his Scientology tribe have signed million or billion year contracts. That is beyond bizarre to me. Maybe they know something that the rest of us don't. Call me a skeptic, but I have my doubts about them. I think that line of thinking more resembles the Kool Aid drinkers of Jonestown than anything else. As they say to each their own.


BG

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