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51 trades (25 round-trips) in 63 years isn't a lot of buying & selling.

Perhaps I don't understand the strategy, I count 3 dips of the S&P below the 200 day SMA in the last 2 years alone.

How does this backtest?

That's the problem, isn't it? You can't backtest this, so all you have is personal anecdotal data over a limited period of time in one phase of the market.


Why can't I back test it? The logic is simple to implement using historical data. In fact I did back test it and it did improve returns over a straight 60/40 balanced portfolio.

I merely brought it up for discussion and possible analysis as well as trying to understand the SMA strategy you've mentioned.

The major problem I see with this meta-statement is encapsulated in the concept of "Would you rather be right or rich?"

By almost any measure, I'd consider myself "rich" already. I'm not overly concerned with being "right", I don't even think there is a single "right", but I do want to continue to learn.

-murray
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