UStreasuries 6s of 20something are 116 down from 123 in 11 days,do you know where your children are ? MAJOR NOTE- my "forgive them they know not"post got 0 recommendations ----why ? it speaks volumes.because what it portends, isnt't a suitable thought for99% of tehworld which is long fixed income.what we would like to think doesn't bring us to the mountain, economic reality is economic reality. Good retruns go to good capitalists. Do we remember that as we allocate capital to worthy risks?
MAJOR NOTE- my "forgive them they know not"post got 0 recommendations ----why ? it speaks volumes.Did you post it to try and get recs? If so, that is enough reason for me to not rec it. If not, why do you care?ACME
re ""Did you post it to try and get recs? If so, that is enough reason for me to not rec it. If not, why do you care?""1.I never post to get recommendations2.I don't care.Again, trying to say it better,the post is not congenial to where minds would like to be. being LONG fixed income is very comfortable to the mind,just as being long INTC CSCO SUNW WCOM was very comfortable in 99 00.late Dec 99 I posted about bubble psyche in QCOM n their board, Pained Webbster anaylst saw1000$ !!!they wanted my hide nailed up, there was NO way QCOM was going down !!I don't want to suggest I am never wrong!!I can beVERY wrong ..
You're upset because your post got zero recs?What is this? The Pulitzer Prize for literature contest?Maybe if you tried conventional punctuation and capitalization, and organized your thoughts into sentences, your message would come across as slightly more coherent.And if you really believe that the market enforces economic morality, what does that say about trafficing in illegal drugs today, or slaves 150 years ago? My point is that markets need laws and regulations, because their participants are often immoral or amoral.
Sorry, you can only recommend a post to the Best of once. ACME
"UStreasuries 6s of 20something are 116 down from 123 in 11 days,"Yup. A bunch of the traders who expected a 50 basis point cut from friend Alan didn't get it and are running for the exits. That doesn't mean a wholesale sell-off, with all those folks who fled stocks for bonds in their IRAs now panicking about bonds. And, friend Alan has said he will buy long term treasuries to keep interest rates down if necessary to prevent deflation (whether it works is a different question).Some bond fund NAVs have dropped about 1% over the last few days. Stock funds sometimes do that in an hour. We don't need to blow this interest rate risk thing out of proportion, at least if you're buying bonds or bond funds to hold onto, not for short term trading. The risks are moderate: over the long haul, even in the worst case scenario, your total return will be zero. In reality, we're talking about rising interest rates reducing total returns or locking you in, with individual bonds, to low interest rates for extended periods. I think the chances are there are better choices, even within fixed income, but the bottom isn't going to fall out.
morality meaning economic morality.we are by what we do, our capital is, by where we place it . economically worthwhile, aiding economically, a good place for capital. capital placed in dotcom mania, went to 0.supplying capital to the US govt @3% for 10 yrs, I think is economically wrong and there will be a penalty to pay.
proportion?if 10 yr rates rise 1.5%, ( lacking a table here ), my rough guess would be that 10 yr instruments in genaral would be down 12%.the investor in Tbills can then buy a 4.5% 10 yr and ear it. if rates turn, yes the degree matters, but total returns will go negative, all the while earnings on MM funds will be rising and rising , with an unch NAV. People won Tbills for purpose!In 1981 somebodies owned 14% tbonds instead of 3month 19% CDs,and that even after a few yrs of negative Total returns on bonds.Why ?
morality meaning economic morality.we are by what we do, our capital is, by where we place it . economically worthwhile, aiding economically, a good place for capital. capital placed in dotcom mania, went to 0.supplying capital to the US govt @3% for 10 yrs, I think is economically wrong and there will be a penalty to pay.By your usage you are equating "economic success" with "economic morality". In my opinion this is incorrect. Morality is a philosophical term, having to do with right and wrong, not whether something makes financial sense or is successful. You're confusing people by inserting philosophical language into a discussion on investing. There's nothing moral about markets - one party will take advantage of another if they can get away with it.-J8
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