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The 10 Most Recent Messages By Rayvt

Take me back to where I was.
  • Date: 1/14/18 5:01 PM
  • Number: 269119
  • Recommendations: 8
I think i, ii, iii, covers all the conditions for BUY.
Do I understand your backtest rule correctly regarding "BUY"?


You are making it too complicated.

The buy rule is: "if Price >= 200SMA then
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  • Date: 1/14/18 4:28 PM
  • Number: 233911
  • Recommendations: 2
... short-term...no more predictable than any other stock's price.
But over a couple of years, it's like watching a glacier move. Slow, steady, and predictably farther along its path.
If you start with something very predictable,

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  • Date: 1/14/18 10:46 AM
  • Number: 269113
  • Recommendations: 2
Colloquially, the way to understand it is: you should be in stocks when anything is looking good, and you should be out of stocks when everything looks bad. It is not symmetric.

No, scratch that. I said it wrong. (Told you this is
(Continued...)
  • Date: 1/14/18 10:23 AM
  • Number: 269112
  • Recommendations: 4
In you rules, on the backtest, When is the buy signal, If (A=no) or (B=no)?

Well, it's one of those things where, once you understand it, it is perfectly clear. But until you do understand it, it's very unclear.

The
(Continued...)
  • Date: 1/13/18 11:25 PM
  • Number: 86821
  • Recommendations: 0
I remember sitting in a Kodak "town hall" meeting when your former boss, George Fisher, announced that everyone in the company would be getting 100 stock options.

Ha. Fisher was good at Motorola, but when it became evident
(Continued...)
  • Date: 1/13/18 12:16 PM
  • Number: 233893
  • Recommendations: 0
Most people haven't noticed that the new tax rates don't kick in for another year (Jan 2019)...

But people and businesses don't make plans based on the situation of today, they make plans and change behavior based on
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  • Date: 1/13/18 12:07 PM
  • Number: 233891
  • Recommendations: 0
but I think the bigger change to intrinsic value will be the drop in tax rate on ordinary operations.
Most people haven't noticed that the new tax rates don't kick in for another year (Jan 2018), and
then we need a full year

(Continued...)
  • Date: 1/13/18 11:56 AM
  • Number: 269103
  • Recommendations: 0
We've officially hit the point where the shoeshine boy is giving out stock tips.

Nah, that just geek fanboys who stumbled into a ponzi before it collapses. Same as Tesla millionaires.
  • Date: 1/13/18 11:53 AM
  • Number: 86808
  • Recommendations: 3
At a few more junctures, we received out-of-the-money options as bonuses or whatever.

A few years before I left Motorola they started giving out stock options to engineers & programmers as "rewards" for good kudos from
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  • Date: 1/12/18 4:48 PM
  • Number: 233874
  • Recommendations: 0
Huh. And here I was debating if I should make a post wondering how soon the S&P would hit 2800 and the Dow crossing 26000. Seems like just yesterday that the Dow crossing 25,000 was a big deal.
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Take me back to where I was.
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