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The 10 Most Recent Messages By mungofitch

Take me back to where I was.
  • Date: 6/22/18 9:07 PM
  • Number: 236856
  • Recommendations: 1
S&P 500: 5-6% EPS growth, 2% dividend yield, (15/24)^(1/10)= -4%/yr multiple change, 3-4% total return
BRK: 8-9% BV/share growth, 0% dividend, (1.2/1.36)^(1/10) = -1%/yr multiple change, 7-8% total return

Not a bad general
  • Date: 6/22/18 8:58 PM
  • Number: 236855
  • Recommendations: 3
What do you think the P/B or P/IV will be for BRK stock in 5-10 years, or whatever your expected holding time is?
I ask because increasingly I am thinking that the P/B will be lower, not higher, than it is today, even though BRK stock is

  • Date: 6/22/18 4:37 PM
  • Number: 236848
  • Recommendations: 20
- Why a company that declares GAAP profit and pays tax is preferable?
These questions were never answered.

OK, here's an answer.

Paying tax isn't really anybody's goal, but it's a normal cost of doing
  • Date: 6/22/18 10:43 AM
  • Number: 236840
  • Recommendations: 8
Forecasts for FY Feb 2019 are around $5 a share *excluding* the one time hit to deferred tax assets, and the current price of around $61 is 12.2 times that.

Carmax having a nice day.
Good first quarter versus prior year. Net
  • Date: 6/21/18 10:09 PM
  • Number: 271073
  • Recommendations: 14
In fact, every time a person in any given country imports something at a cost of (say) $100 an item
which could have been purchased from a local supplier for $120, the importing country as a whole
becomes richer. Certainly there are

  • Date: 6/21/18 9:04 PM
  • Number: 236837
  • Recommendations: 13
You are right. It has been constantly morphing and will continue morphing in the future, but some multiple of book can still be used as a decent proxy.
Median P/B fell from roughly 2.0x in 1996 to 1.61x in Sept 2011 when the 1.1x buy back

  • Date: 6/21/18 6:05 PM
  • Number: 271068
  • Recommendations: 2
How does this work at, say, IB?
Say I deposit $10,000 and buy $13K of IWM and sell (short) $3K of IJR. Are these treated separately,
so they charge me for $3K of margin and mention that, oh BTW, you also have a $3K short position?

  • Date: 6/21/18 5:54 PM
  • Number: 236833
  • Recommendations: 9
So, if book value per share still means roughly what it has in the past as a crude proxy for value per share,
But does it? I'd argue probably not.
Berkshire has morphed a little since Buffett announced his 1.2 x BV buyback

  • Date: 6/21/18 4:14 PM
  • Number: 236832
  • Recommendations: 22
It's a well known rule of thumb that the Berkshire B holders are the relatively weak hands, and the A holders are by comparison calm and sanguine.
For one thing, I don't imagine many ETFs hold A shares, and many weak hands hold
  • Date: 6/21/18 3:49 PM
  • Number: 271063
  • Recommendations: 8
Sorry to hijack the thread, but I thought I'd pass on one of my favourite small cap strategies.

130% long S&P 600 small cap, 30% short Russell 2000 small cap.

The inclusion criteria for the 600 seem to be stringent enough
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Take me back to where I was.
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