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The 10 Most Recent Messages By mungofitch

Take me back to where I was.
  • Date: 6/30/16 1:34 PM
  • Number: 224539
  • Recommendations: 0
Yes, it's possible. Cheap capital causing businesses to do funny things.

Financially, sure.
But Hershey's governance is in effect designed to prevent this. I had always assumed that was working.

I guess the
  • Date: 6/30/16 1:32 PM
  • Number: 224538
  • Recommendations: 3
A foregone opportunity for a big gain is not all all the same as a big loss.
Really? That's clearly not the kool-aid talking.

I would suggest that someone who doesn't appreciate the huge gulf between
the two
  • Date: 6/30/16 12:59 PM
  • Number: 224535
  • Recommendations: 2
But the idea that IBM is a successful mistake is a myth I just cannot subscribe to.

I dunno. Everybody makes mistakes. What would a successful mistake look like?
I currently expect that Mr Buffett's record of never
  • Date: 6/30/16 12:01 PM
  • Number: 224532
  • Recommendations: 3
Is that even possible?

Hershey stock soars after report of Mondelez takeover bid
up 18 percent at $114.63.

  • Date: 6/30/16 11:30 AM
  • Number: 224531
  • Recommendations: 7
Good post, but this is a little too deferential to ole BRK, don't you think? Lots of things meet that standard.

Obviously there are things that would have offered this benefit and ALSO presumably appreciated in value a lot more
  • Date: 6/29/16 9:56 PM
  • Number: 544
  • Recommendations: 0
FWIW, currently BAM is roughly 7% and WFC 3.5% in my world.

FWIW my allocations for those two are both a bit bigger, and reversed.
Again, that doesn't mean I'm right.
I lightened up on WFC a while back when it was up
  • Date: 6/29/16 9:55 PM
  • Number: 224527
  • Recommendations: 27
Sometimes it's good to be lucky. Even a little good luck is nice after a lot of bad luck.

I closed about 12% of my IBM position last Thursday while the Brits were still voting and everybody was still happy.
(breakeven on the sales
  • Date: 6/29/16 9:17 PM
  • Number: 543
  • Recommendations: 2
Having said that, Jim would you mind elaborating this if you have a spare moment and can indulge: "but WFC the higher near-worst-case return."

I said only that it's possible. This isn't necessarily something I
  • Date: 6/29/16 9:01 PM
  • Number: 224526
  • Recommendations: 0
Why is 2008 repeated?

Because it was so much fun, of course.


(quirk of the Excel graph, I used a 365 day horizontal scale instead of one year horizontal scale, sorry)
  • Date: 6/29/16 6:01 PM
  • Number: 224522
  • Recommendations: 14
For fun, here's a graph of real S&P 500 earnings and my estimates of the trend.
All the figures are expressed in today's dollars
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Take me back to where I was.
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