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The 10 Most Recent Messages By mungofitch

Take me back to where I was.
  • Date: 5/3/15 3:44 PM
  • Number: 256287
  • Recommendations: 3
Numbers are great and everything but.... wasn't there a book titled "how to lie with statistics"? or something like that anyway.

Actually, 2.2% of all non fiction books are about that.

  • Date: 5/3/15 2:24 PM
  • Number: 256282
  • Recommendations: 2
So according to VL, CBI's present price is 42% below present fair value, and 53% below fair value 3-5 years out...

Though my reasoning might be a bit different from theirs, the conclusion isn't so different.
Which is why I'm
  • Date: 5/3/15 2:07 PM
  • Number: 256281
  • Recommendations: 7
The gist of the conclusion isn't entirely wrong, though it would be more
compelling if they used the figures for real total return all time high.

In principle an index that drops 50% can be at fresh 52 week highs
  • Date: 5/3/15 1:58 PM
  • Number: 216733
  • Recommendations: 1
It's badly abusing the math, but a starting guess might be that a 4%
withdrawal rate back then might equate to a 4*3.81/5.38 = 2.8% withdrawal rate now.

It occurs to me that the way I phrased that could be
  • Date: 5/3/15 1:54 PM
  • Number: 216732
  • Recommendations: 5
What matters most is whether IBM can sustain, and hopefully grow, its earnings and free cash flow.

I'd have to agree that this is the only relevant question.
Adding "per share" on the end, of course.

  • Date: 5/3/15 1:28 PM
  • Number: 216730
  • Recommendations: 8
It seems like the story of the quarter and year is the growth in operating earnings.

But things have been rising quite rapidly just lately.
With all my adjustments my pretax non-investment earnings come out
  • Date: 5/2/15 2:04 PM
  • Number: 256254
  • Recommendations: 0
There is a big difference between categories of cruises -- and passengers. The typical cruise is 7 days...
The other category is longer cruises - several weeks long - and these have mostly passengers who have cruised a lot.

  • Date: 5/2/15 1:14 PM
  • Number: 216719
  • Recommendations: 23
I created trailing 12 month figures from the Q1 statements, 2014 statements, and Q1/2014 statements.

My March 31 "adjusted" value calculation is up 4.4% year to date (one quarter) and 19% since end 2013 (five quarters).
  • Date: 5/1/15 12:50 PM
  • Number: 256233
  • Recommendations: 16
With longer term holds, the fundamental quality of selections becomes far more important.
Deep value guys help me understand this.

I have never once bought a stock just to get a warm fuzzy feeling.
I buy tickers to get returns

  • Date: 5/1/15 11:18 AM
  • Number: 216704
  • Recommendations: 31
Nice summary.

That's the past, of course. Starting points matter, so the look ahead will be different.

I estimate trend earnings yield of the S&P 500 on his end-1994 start date at 5.38%.
(same method as the 10 year average
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Take me back to where I was.
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