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The 10 Most Recent Messages By mungofitch

Take me back to where I was.
  • Date: 8/19/17 11:01 AM
  • Number: 231283
  • Recommendations: 4
If Amazon can make the bulk of its money from AWS...

Certainly possible.
In fact, I rather wish they would spin off AWS.

I think that AWS can itself be broken down into compute services with entirely uninteresting
(Continued...)
  • Date: 8/19/17 10:27 AM
  • Number: 231281
  • Recommendations: 15
Comparing an absolute bubble with Amazon stock price which had a sustained run for 20 years shows
a lack of understanding, just like you are anchoring on that $2.7B net income.
...
The comparison is apt in one sense - Jim

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  • Date: 8/18/17 4:17 PM
  • Number: 267385
  • Recommendations: 3
A *good* signal should have a clearly negative return during bearish periods for any statistically long-enough use interval.
They all backtest like that, so it's all about how much the model is predictive after it's tuned.
Are

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  • Date: 8/18/17 4:01 PM
  • Number: 267384
  • Recommendations: 5
Viewing the above statistics in that light, it implies that the standard timing methods take you OUT when you should be IN. IOW, they take you out too early.

Well, certainly true of so-so and bad timing signals.

A lot of
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  • Date: 8/18/17 1:26 PM
  • Number: 267382
  • Recommendations: 12
If the signal triggers, I'll try to remember to post. It's not great, but it's better than random.

FWIW, my top detector signal triggered on Wednesday.
S&P was at about 2461-2468.

That was only the 25th
(Continued...)
  • Date: 8/18/17 9:57 AM
  • Number: 267379
  • Recommendations: 2
The conclusion, FWIW, is that puts bought at very low VIX, i.e. below 15, tend not to do much good because they tend not to pay off.

I came at a somewhat similar analysis in a different way, done some years ago.
I looked at the
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  • Date: 8/18/17 9:53 AM
  • Number: 267378
  • Recommendations: 1
Well today it was LAKE that took a hit, they're doing a public offering of more shares.

Another factor is that breadth is getting quite weak.
This means that any randomly picked stock is likely to underperform the
(Continued...)
  • Date: 8/17/17 3:59 PM
  • Number: 231269
  • Recommendations: 6
"Incidentally, on a pullback I might get a nibble of Tencent.
WeChat is a pretty remarkable phenomenon, to an extent that I think is not generally appreciated."
Jim, what do you think of his assessment?


I have had
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  • Date: 8/17/17 1:36 PM
  • Number: 231267
  • Recommendations: 3
That being said, I never really liked retail in general, as retailers so rarely has interesting returns that last past their turbo-growth phase.
And the current "extra" headwinds are intriguing, to say the least.


In the
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  • Date: 8/17/17 1:30 PM
  • Number: 231266
  • Recommendations: 4
The price was $64.63 for that Friday close, $67.23 now. Mark your calendars.

Another follow up.
At $168, the price has just cracked 2.5 times what it was then (just under two years ago).

I have to say, maybe there is
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Take me back to where I was.
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