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The 10 Most Recent Messages By mungofitch

Take me back to where I was.
  • Date: 10/17/17 3:56 PM
  • Number: 232221
  • Recommendations: 1
This is a different case. It includes two components, investment and labor.

Well, two comments

* It's the same thing.
No particular labour is required beyond evaluating the opportunity, largely the same as with any
(Continued...)
  • Date: 10/17/17 1:35 PM
  • Number: 232219
  • Recommendations: 2
It would be a very new thing in the history of the world.
...
New thing ... like short-term fixed income holdings having a real negative yield for years and years on end? Heh heh.


I'm not saying new things can't
(Continued...)
  • Date: 10/17/17 1:30 PM
  • Number: 232218
  • Recommendations: 2
Are you able to suggest a probable return for a basket of the top 5, 10 or 20 constituents in the S&P500?
...
Or, let's cherry pick the top 5 income producers. 1) Apple 2) JP Morgan Chase 3) Wells Fargo
4) Berkshire Hathaway

(Continued...)
  • Date: 10/17/17 1:08 PM
  • Number: 826
  • Recommendations: 1
For whatever it's worth, I sold my block of TSU.

I don't know enough about it to know that it's worth more than C$25, so C$27.80 seems reasonable.
There just isn't enough information out there yet to figure out the
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  • Date: 10/17/17 12:58 PM
  • Number: 232215
  • Recommendations: 2
Your results seem reasonable to me, although I don't fully understand the methods you have used;
for instance, are you doing a linear regression on those inputs? And why do you use the 90th percentile?


Yes, in this case I
(Continued...)
  • Date: 10/17/17 11:53 AM
  • Number: 232212
  • Recommendations: 1
stocks, including dividends, are about -2% to 2%, over the next 10-12 years...
All nominal.


Oooh, you're more bearish than I am. Chapeau!
If one assumes (say) 2% inflation, your figure means -4% to 0% real total
(Continued...)
  • Date: 10/17/17 10:57 AM
  • Number: 232210
  • Recommendations: 17
Conversion #1?

Bill McNabb, chairman of Vanguard, told the BBC the markets could be on course for a "decent-sized correction at some point".
In an interview with BBC Radio 4's Today Programme, Mr McNabb said stock

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  • Date: 10/16/17 3:55 PM
  • Number: 232193
  • Recommendations: 13
I have done a fair bit of shorting over the years.
I believe the only viable way is with a larger number of small (low conviction, good statistical support) positions.
Never more than 1% of your portfolio in any given one, and never more
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  • Date: 10/16/17 3:45 PM
  • Number: 232191
  • Recommendations: 0
stocks, including dividends, are about -2% to 2%, over the next 10-12 years. On cash, slightly over 0%, and in bonds, it is about 2.3%;

Are you perhaps mixing nominal and real returns?
I can believe -2% to 2% as a sane estimate
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  • Date: 10/16/17 3:00 PM
  • Number: 232186
  • Recommendations: 1
Just wondering...in your own opinion, what's the most overvalued security you own a reasonable amount of?

Note, this isn't a fruitless discussion about how to value that security. Each stock has its own board for that,
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Take me back to where I was.
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