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The 10 Most Recent Messages By mungofitch

Take me back to where I was.
  • Date: 7/21/14 4:59 PM
  • Number: 211899
  • Recommendations: 5
I'm also bemused on the reasoning that the cash was otherwise needed, thereby "forcing" the sale of COP.
Perhaps there was something in the works then that we will never know about, but to my
recollection there was never a

(Continued...)
  • Date: 7/21/14 2:27 PM
  • Number: 251955
  • Recommendations: 3
As for Value Line, I have no idea how they came up with 4.81 for TTM EPS. ...

Well, recall that Value Line excludes extraordinary gains or losses.
They then mention these excluded things in the footnotes on the PDF
(Continued...)
  • Date: 7/20/14 3:36 PM
  • Number: 251943
  • Recommendations: 2
FWIW, an interesting stock for a test case is Goldman Sachs.
They were forced to change their year end from Nov 30 to Dec 31 when they registered as a bank during the crunch.
This left them with a one-month reporting period that was not in
(Continued...)
  • Date: 7/20/14 3:23 PM
  • Number: 211886
  • Recommendations: 22
Is the market overvalued?

It's likely a key issue is what exactly you mean by "overvalued".

One possible definition could be approached like this.
Long run typical real total return from US stocks has been
(Continued...)
  • Date: 7/18/14 6:10 PM
  • Number: 211862
  • Recommendations: 4
Who will remember a year from now that I said today that I expect a major breakout in oil prices?
...
Do you? Is it "peak oil" season already?


Nothing so deeply philosophical.
My reasoning is more of the
(Continued...)
  • Date: 7/18/14 6:06 PM
  • Number: 211861
  • Recommendations: 7
Has anyone done the math on how much Berkshire would be up had they not sold out of COP several years ago?
I did not sell and I believe this has been my best performing position.


The following figures include reinvested
(Continued...)
  • Date: 7/18/14 5:04 PM
  • Number: 211860
  • Recommendations: 2
You better consult with your trust and estate lawyer, because this could be very serious...

It could also be impossible.
There is the "prudent man of business" rule, which (by custom and in effect)
requires a
(Continued...)
  • Date: 7/18/14 4:18 PM
  • Number: 14323
  • Recommendations: 4
At $12.05, the price now, I'm edging more towards a recommendation.
...
Wow, $18.09.
Up just over 50% in just over two months. Not bad.


High today $19.57, closed at $19.27. Up 60% from that $12.05 level four months
(Continued...)
  • Date: 7/18/14 12:57 PM
  • Number: 211853
  • Recommendations: 2
It's generous of you to take the time to revisit this.

Not at all. It's purely for the Rasputin-like glow. I never revisit the stuff that worked out badly!
The secret to making accurate forecasts is to make LOTS of
(Continued...)
  • Date: 7/18/14 12:54 PM
  • Number: 211852
  • Recommendations: 11
... maybe also with the impression the transition isn't going well (I don't know that it is, particularly).

I see what you mean.
The quote “IBM didn’t show from this report that they are going to make it to the other side
(Continued...)
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Take me back to where I was.
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