Investing/Strategies / Mechanical Investing Add This Board To Your Favorites
Message Font: Serif | Sans-Serif
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (7) | Ignore Thread «Thread | Prev | Next | Thread»
Author: alevine Big red star, 1000 posts Old School Fool Add to my Favorite Fools Ignore this person (you won't see their posts anymore)
Number: of 225983
Subject: Short & Long Screen Blend Date: 7/10/00 9:22 PM
Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Recommendations: 13
Here's a quick example of how blending a Short & Long screen might work:

For the Long Screen, I used mrtoast's most recent screen:

All VL stocks
Top-30 by RSW
sort by High % EPS Change Last Quarter

The Top-5 picks using a monthly hold have these returns (annualized):
geometric mean: 59.4%
arithmetic mean: 67.4%


For the Short Screen, I used this:

Timeliness = 4 & 5
Sort by Low RS-52

The Top-3 picks using a monthly hold have these returns (remember, we're going short):
geometric mean: 28.4%
arithmetic mean: 52.8%

As you might expect, these screens are highly negatively correlated, with an r-value of -0.296



Now, here is a table that shows the returns if you blend them in a fixed percentage. This table shows the annualized return as you add more of the Short Screen:

% Short Return
0% 59.41%
5% 59.92%
10% 60.21%
15% 60.27%
20% 60.10%
25% 59.71%
30% 59.10%
35% 58.27%
40% 57.22%
45% 54.49%
50% 48.73%
55% 52.81%
60% 50.94%
65% 48.86%
70% 46.60%
75% 44.15%
80% 41.51%
85% 38.70%
90% 35.72%
95% 32.57%
100% 28.42%

As you can see, blending some of the short screen actually increases the overall CAGR (albeit modestly) despite having a lower return than the Long screen. This is due to the effect of blending negatively correlated screens, if I understand this correctly.

Furthermore, the blend decreases the volatility of compared to just using the Long Screen (no surprise there). Here is a table of the month-by-month return of the 2 screens so that you can do your own comparisons and manipulations. The returns for the Short Screen are as if you went short (did I need to say that??). Please excuse any rounding errors:

Date Long Short
Jan-86 12.89% 11.11%
Feb-86 13.38% 3.46%
Mar-86 2.75% -13.73%
Apr-86 5.16% -17.78%
May-86 -0.44% 5.36%
Jun-86 1.54% 13.61%
Jul-86 -7.02% 14.82%
Aug-86 -2.14% -16.41%
Sep-86 -11.26% 3.03%
Oct-86 13.72% 3.08%
Nov-86 1.26% 10.40%
Dec-86 -4.83% -46.11%
Jan-87 9.59% -7.36%
Feb-87 5.95% 7.29%
Mar-87 -0.55% -2.58%
Apr-87 9.37% -6.66%
May-87 -1.96% 11.87%
Jun-87 -4.96% -23.49%
Jul-87 4.24% 2.83%
Aug-87 5.52% 11.33%
Sep-87 16.21% 10.60%
Oct-87 -32.95% 39.10%
Nov-87 1.10% 8.36%
Dec-87 19.95% 15.74%
Jan-88 -17.72% 5.29%
Feb-88 12.99% -5.98%
Mar-88 2.12% 0.73%
Apr-88 9.38% 17.61%
May-88 1.12% -0.82%
Jun-88 17.66% -38.94%
Jul-88 3.14% 36.65%
Aug-88 -0.44% 8.99%
Sep-88 9.89% -27.27%
Oct-88 8.13% 16.16%
Nov-88 -2.05% 26.90%
Dec-88 -2.56% -2.22%
Jan-89 11.97% 9.30%
Feb-89 3.64% -1.76%
Mar-89 5.79% 28.44%
Apr-89 12.42% -16.01%
May-89 18.41% -12.40%
Jun-89 -0.29% 9.73%
Jul-89 12.57% -2.44%
Aug-89 4.06% 5.43%
Sep-89 5.00% 8.86%
Oct-89 -9.23% 28.59%
Nov-89 -3.02% 13.33%
Dec-89 1.37% 48.71%
Jan-90 -6.61% 27.51%
Feb-90 3.20% 29.80%
Mar-90 0.85% 16.16%
Apr-90 -1.25% 12.76%
May-90 26.66% 8.89%
Jun-90 2.30% 4.99%
Jul-90 -9.02% 21.47%
Aug-90 -9.12% 8.93%
Sep-90 -3.92% 44.33%
Oct-90 2.99% 17.86%
Nov-90 14.84% 0.46%
Dec-90 11.58% 33.80%
Jan-91 20.93% 23.61%
Feb-91 14.62% -19.15%
Mar-91 19.61% 4.06%
Apr-91 2.92% 7.59%
May-91 9.38% 25.67%
Jun-91 -11.67% 25.50%
Jul-91 14.58% -14.07%
Aug-91 12.90% 13.07%
Sep-91 4.75% 23.89%
Oct-91 8.40% -7.54%
Nov-91 -7.72% 16.89%
Dec-91 22.04% -1.80%
Jan-92 4.10% 9.33%
Feb-92 5.35% -3.36%
Mar-92 -4.79% 32.13%
Apr-92 -4.63% -4.05%
May-92 3.38% -16.02%
Jun-92 -5.65% -2.69%
Jul-92 3.82% -0.70%
Aug-92 -3.75% 21.14%
Sep-92 4.13% 2.74%
Oct-92 24.33% -16.61%
Nov-92 8.77% -22.62%
Dec-92 9.08% -16.04%
Jan-93 25.30% -35.42%
Feb-93 -3.63% -13.43%
Mar-93 15.36% 7.56%
Apr-93 3.69% 3.52%
May-93 13.38% -10.45%
Jun-93 3.48% 4.09%
Jul-93 2.19% 13.16%
Aug-93 14.28% -4.38%
Sep-93 5.87% 3.56%
Oct-93 -0.02% -25.90%
Nov-93 -10.28% 2.31%
Dec-93 9.84% 4.27%
Jan-94 8.98% -2.34%
Feb-94 11.06% 19.03%
Mar-94 -5.31% 0.30%
Apr-94 10.20% -10.45%
May-94 -7.46% 11.76%
Jun-94 -1.96% -4.62%
Jul-94 -1.58% 1.35%
Aug-94 0.99% -11.43%
Sep-94 6.14% 15.00%
Oct-94 -1.37% -1.20%
Nov-94 -0.23% 29.39%
Dec-94 1.48% 8.30%
Jan-95 2.31% -6.35%
Feb-95 16.03% 0.93%
Mar-95 1.30% 13.52%
Apr-95 2.58% -12.02%
May-95 -2.59% -5.18%
Jun-95 21.55% 4.77%
Jul-95 12.98% -36.87%
Aug-95 12.07% 7.58%
Sep-95 -3.74% -9.72%
Oct-95 1.59% 22.20%
Nov-95 -0.05% 12.12%
Dec-95 -4.55% 6.79%
Jan-96 5.21% -7.01%
Feb-96 11.66% 6.55%
Mar-96 14.42% -11.85%
Apr-96 13.95% -38.10%
May-96 20.06% 3.85%
Jun-96 -3.59% 8.94%
Jul-96 -6.91% 14.87%
Aug-96 6.89% 8.02%
Sep-96 11.28% -16.47%
Oct-96 0.34% 11.05%
Nov-96 10.79% -1.30%
Dec-96 6.60% -2.25%
Jan-97 -3.98% -1.43%
Feb-97 -6.38% -6.44%
Mar-97 -12.76% 6.91%
Apr-97 15.90% -3.48%
May-97 3.69% -15.56%
Jun-97 5.92% 12.70%
Jul-97 16.42% -12.58%
Aug-97 2.09% -32.29%
Sep-97 -1.38% -4.19%
Oct-97 -16.21% 20.53%
Nov-97 7.53% 6.35%
Dec-97 -7.69% 15.69%
Jan-98 16.66% 44.05%
Feb-98 6.44% 7.47%
Mar-98 8.56% -2.71%
Apr-98 -5.16% 3.54%
May-98 -1.35% 31.93%
Jun-98 43.55% -2.62%
Jul-98 -8.91% 39.14%
Aug-98 -16.08% 2.90%
Sep-98 -0.77% 13.73%
Oct-98 11.88% -34.41%
Nov-98 17.31% -3.56%
Dec-98 18.51% 2.12%

Alan


Post New | Post Reply | Reply Later | Create Poll Report this Post | Recommend it!
Print the post    
UnThreaded | Threaded | Whole Thread (7) | Ignore Thread «Thread | Prev | Next | Thread»

Announcements

Foolish Workshop FAQ

What Is This Place?

Post of the Day: Apple
iPhone Circus isn't Slowing

Facebook Fool Fan Club
Be a fan of the Fool over on Facebook!

Community Home
Speak Your Mind, Start Your Blog, Rate Your Stocks

Community Team Fools - who are those TMF's?

Contact Us
Contact Customer Service and other Fool departments here.

What was Your Dumbest Investment?
Share it with us -- and learn from others' stories of flubs.

Work for Fools?
Winner of the Washingtonian great places to work! Have access to all of TMF's online and email products for FREE, and be paid for your contributions to TMF! Click the link and start your Fool career.

Stock Folders: A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z