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Recommendations: 13
Here's a quick example of how blending a Short & Long screen might work:
For the Long Screen, I used mrtoast's most recent screen:
All VL stocks Top-30 by RSW sort by High % EPS Change Last Quarter
The Top-5 picks using a monthly hold have these returns (annualized): geometric mean: 59.4% arithmetic mean: 67.4%
For the Short Screen, I used this:
Timeliness = 4 & 5 Sort by Low RS-52
The Top-3 picks using a monthly hold have these returns (remember, we're going short): geometric mean: 28.4% arithmetic mean: 52.8%
As you might expect, these screens are highly negatively correlated, with an r-value of -0.296
Now, here is a table that shows the returns if you blend them in a fixed percentage. This table shows the annualized return as you add more of the Short Screen:
% Short Return 0% 59.41% 5% 59.92% 10% 60.21% 15% 60.27% 20% 60.10% 25% 59.71% 30% 59.10% 35% 58.27% 40% 57.22% 45% 54.49% 50% 48.73% 55% 52.81% 60% 50.94% 65% 48.86% 70% 46.60% 75% 44.15% 80% 41.51% 85% 38.70% 90% 35.72% 95% 32.57% 100% 28.42%
As you can see, blending some of the short screen actually increases the overall CAGR (albeit modestly) despite having a lower return than the Long screen. This is due to the effect of blending negatively correlated screens, if I understand this correctly.
Furthermore, the blend decreases the volatility of compared to just using the Long Screen (no surprise there). Here is a table of the month-by-month return of the 2 screens so that you can do your own comparisons and manipulations. The returns for the Short Screen are as if you went short (did I need to say that??). Please excuse any rounding errors:
Date Long Short Jan-86 12.89% 11.11% Feb-86 13.38% 3.46% Mar-86 2.75% -13.73% Apr-86 5.16% -17.78% May-86 -0.44% 5.36% Jun-86 1.54% 13.61% Jul-86 -7.02% 14.82% Aug-86 -2.14% -16.41% Sep-86 -11.26% 3.03% Oct-86 13.72% 3.08% Nov-86 1.26% 10.40% Dec-86 -4.83% -46.11% Jan-87 9.59% -7.36% Feb-87 5.95% 7.29% Mar-87 -0.55% -2.58% Apr-87 9.37% -6.66% May-87 -1.96% 11.87% Jun-87 -4.96% -23.49% Jul-87 4.24% 2.83% Aug-87 5.52% 11.33% Sep-87 16.21% 10.60% Oct-87 -32.95% 39.10% Nov-87 1.10% 8.36% Dec-87 19.95% 15.74% Jan-88 -17.72% 5.29% Feb-88 12.99% -5.98% Mar-88 2.12% 0.73% Apr-88 9.38% 17.61% May-88 1.12% -0.82% Jun-88 17.66% -38.94% Jul-88 3.14% 36.65% Aug-88 -0.44% 8.99% Sep-88 9.89% -27.27% Oct-88 8.13% 16.16% Nov-88 -2.05% 26.90% Dec-88 -2.56% -2.22% Jan-89 11.97% 9.30% Feb-89 3.64% -1.76% Mar-89 5.79% 28.44% Apr-89 12.42% -16.01% May-89 18.41% -12.40% Jun-89 -0.29% 9.73% Jul-89 12.57% -2.44% Aug-89 4.06% 5.43% Sep-89 5.00% 8.86% Oct-89 -9.23% 28.59% Nov-89 -3.02% 13.33% Dec-89 1.37% 48.71% Jan-90 -6.61% 27.51% Feb-90 3.20% 29.80% Mar-90 0.85% 16.16% Apr-90 -1.25% 12.76% May-90 26.66% 8.89% Jun-90 2.30% 4.99% Jul-90 -9.02% 21.47% Aug-90 -9.12% 8.93% Sep-90 -3.92% 44.33% Oct-90 2.99% 17.86% Nov-90 14.84% 0.46% Dec-90 11.58% 33.80% Jan-91 20.93% 23.61% Feb-91 14.62% -19.15% Mar-91 19.61% 4.06% Apr-91 2.92% 7.59% May-91 9.38% 25.67% Jun-91 -11.67% 25.50% Jul-91 14.58% -14.07% Aug-91 12.90% 13.07% Sep-91 4.75% 23.89% Oct-91 8.40% -7.54% Nov-91 -7.72% 16.89% Dec-91 22.04% -1.80% Jan-92 4.10% 9.33% Feb-92 5.35% -3.36% Mar-92 -4.79% 32.13% Apr-92 -4.63% -4.05% May-92 3.38% -16.02% Jun-92 -5.65% -2.69% Jul-92 3.82% -0.70% Aug-92 -3.75% 21.14% Sep-92 4.13% 2.74% Oct-92 24.33% -16.61% Nov-92 8.77% -22.62% Dec-92 9.08% -16.04% Jan-93 25.30% -35.42% Feb-93 -3.63% -13.43% Mar-93 15.36% 7.56% Apr-93 3.69% 3.52% May-93 13.38% -10.45% Jun-93 3.48% 4.09% Jul-93 2.19% 13.16% Aug-93 14.28% -4.38% Sep-93 5.87% 3.56% Oct-93 -0.02% -25.90% Nov-93 -10.28% 2.31% Dec-93 9.84% 4.27% Jan-94 8.98% -2.34% Feb-94 11.06% 19.03% Mar-94 -5.31% 0.30% Apr-94 10.20% -10.45% May-94 -7.46% 11.76% Jun-94 -1.96% -4.62% Jul-94 -1.58% 1.35% Aug-94 0.99% -11.43% Sep-94 6.14% 15.00% Oct-94 -1.37% -1.20% Nov-94 -0.23% 29.39% Dec-94 1.48% 8.30% Jan-95 2.31% -6.35% Feb-95 16.03% 0.93% Mar-95 1.30% 13.52% Apr-95 2.58% -12.02% May-95 -2.59% -5.18% Jun-95 21.55% 4.77% Jul-95 12.98% -36.87% Aug-95 12.07% 7.58% Sep-95 -3.74% -9.72% Oct-95 1.59% 22.20% Nov-95 -0.05% 12.12% Dec-95 -4.55% 6.79% Jan-96 5.21% -7.01% Feb-96 11.66% 6.55% Mar-96 14.42% -11.85% Apr-96 13.95% -38.10% May-96 20.06% 3.85% Jun-96 -3.59% 8.94% Jul-96 -6.91% 14.87% Aug-96 6.89% 8.02% Sep-96 11.28% -16.47% Oct-96 0.34% 11.05% Nov-96 10.79% -1.30% Dec-96 6.60% -2.25% Jan-97 -3.98% -1.43% Feb-97 -6.38% -6.44% Mar-97 -12.76% 6.91% Apr-97 15.90% -3.48% May-97 3.69% -15.56% Jun-97 5.92% 12.70% Jul-97 16.42% -12.58% Aug-97 2.09% -32.29% Sep-97 -1.38% -4.19% Oct-97 -16.21% 20.53% Nov-97 7.53% 6.35% Dec-97 -7.69% 15.69% Jan-98 16.66% 44.05% Feb-98 6.44% 7.47% Mar-98 8.56% -2.71% Apr-98 -5.16% 3.54% May-98 -1.35% 31.93% Jun-98 43.55% -2.62% Jul-98 -8.91% 39.14% Aug-98 -16.08% 2.90% Sep-98 -0.77% 13.73% Oct-98 11.88% -34.41% Nov-98 17.31% -3.56% Dec-98 18.51% 2.12%
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