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Subject:  Re: The Anti-Motley Fool viewpoint Date:  2/18/1998  1:53 PM
Author:  galtsgulch Number:  1844 of 88059

<< Huh? I said it has been through strong and weak cycles. Does the Great Depression mean anything
to you?>>

While both market investors and DOGS need a strong economy, DOGS claim to have the ability to cherry pick the market. Historically, in a bull market DOGS go UP MORE than the market and go DOWN LESS in a bear market. I claim that DOGS will not automatically go up in a bear market (in the future) -- they are indeed sensitive to the strength of the economy. If you try to implement DOGS in Zambia you will find the strategy fails. Or do you think that DOGS are immune to the strength of the economy? If not, then you admit that you need both a strong economy and the ability to cherry-pick the winners. QED

<< First, many scientifically literate people also believe this [environmentalism]. (There is valid reasoning on both sides of this argument.)>>

This answer does not surprise me given your willingness to trust correlation without ESTABLISHING cause.

<<Second, absolutely no one, to my knowledge, assumes the temp rise to be man-made *solely* because there has been a temp rise.>>

No, not solely. Just as DOG advocates have their plausibility arguments the environmentalist have theirs. However, for both groups this is their central piece of evidence. Unfortunately, there is an abundance of scientifically illiterate folks out there for them to sell books to or scare. And so it goes.

<<But thus far you have not refuted a single one of the reasons behind the Dow theory, you've only said they don't exist.>>

DOG advocates are asserting a positive claim and thus are obligated to prove they are right since one cannot, logically, prove a negative.

John Power

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