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Stocks Y / YPF Sociedad Anonima


Subject:  Re: YPF Date:  6/1/1998  5:18 PM
Author:  finkbarton Number:  6 of 12

I really believe than every judgment related to YPF value (net asset value, DCF, or whatever) should state the implicit "equilibrium" value of oil. I find the company's value highly sensitive to oil price fluctuations. For example, a one dollar more expensive oil price gives the company with additional 45-50 million of cash. A rule-of-thumb calculation (10% discount rate, etc., etc.) implies a 5% higher value for the stock. You can refine the analysis (I did it) but you will get roughly the same figures.
Related to your stock option, I do not think it will get to $ 35 at any point soon (sorry for my friends at Salomon)
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