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Stocks D / Dave & Buster's, Inc.
|Subject: Re: My take on DANB||Date: 5/5/1999 6:41 PM|
|Author: StrikeItLucky||Number: 139 of 401|
Here is my current thinking. Every restaurant takes $10million to open. Each restaurant makes about $750,000 in profit a year.
I don't care how popular they are, based on those numbers this business cannot grow earnings fast enough to justify its current P/E (even though it is low by today's market's standards) without taking on lots of debt. Since D&B are planning to open 21 restaurants over the next 3 years at a cost of approx $200million and only approximately $30million can come from retained earnings, they will have a debt to equite ratio at the end of three years of about 1:1 and they will still be taking on debt faster than they are growing equity.
As long as they continue to generate only 7.5% on invested capital, they cannot grow the business faster than that without increasing leverage. But the current P/E is only justifiable with growth rates vastly exceeding 7.5%.
I guess what I'm saying is that it just costs too much to open a complex compared to trh profits they are making from them. That just means that opening more complexes makes the business a worse capital sink than it already was.
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