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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/i-think-it-is-very-hard-to-predict-beyond-a-10992737.aspx

Subject:  Re: year 2000 Date:  6/27/1999  11:21 AM
Author:  TwoCybers Number:  617 of 19380

I think it is very hard to predict beyond a generalization that the period around 12/31/99 will have uncertainty & volatility. All the information I get suggests the American Banking system will be fine (credit unions and non-FDIC institutions are not being forced to be compliant). There is a great deal of concern by drug companies that people will hoard pills. This could result in transferring demand/sales from Q1 of 2000 into Q4 of 1999. Gasoline is another item that spot shortages could occur as everybody fills their tank. There seems to be general agreement that much of the less developed countries will have some dissolcations. Well how do you predict the effect of some problems with an oil well in Indonesian (an example only)? There is a level of insanity on the part of some people. I know of an individual who has removed $100,000 in cash from his checking account and placed the money in his lock box on the basis his bank might not be open and he wants to be certain to have cash (It does not seem to have occured to him the bank also has vault doors with time locks.)

Frankly right now there is some uncertainty about what actions the FED will take, about Russia, etc. I believe there will be several good opprotunities in the next 6 to 9 months to make investments as people over react. I have a bit more cash available then usual. I have also established a selling order for my investments to raise cash in case something really crazy happens. For example of KO or T drop to single digets I will buy a bunch, but I want to make the decision on selling other stocks in a cold, careful way.

Other then that, just remember 1/1/2000 falls on a Saturday this year. So I might get enough cash for one day more then a normal holiday weekend.
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