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Stocks H / Hasbro, Inc.

URL:  http://boards.fool.com/hasbro-11684036.aspx

Subject:  Hasbro Date:  12/20/1999  2:15 AM
Author:  1000 Number:  641 of 1219

I believe tax selling could be having an affect on Hasbro this month and believe it will go back into the 20's the first of next year.

Hasbro earnings and average PE for the last 10 years
1989 .46 PE 12.7
1990 .46 PE 11
1991 .63 PE 13.2
1992 .89 PE 14.6
1993 1.04 PE 15.2
1994 .86 PE 16.6
1995 .88 PE 15.8
1996 1.01 PE 16.2
1997 1.13 PE 16.7
1998 1.08 PE 21.9
1998 1q .04 2q .03 3q .37 4q .64 fiscal 98 1.08
1999 1q .07 2q .16 3q .43
now present PE ratio is 14.32 which is based on 1.30 and a present price of 18 5/8.Estimates are high for the 4q. estimates are for .76 and for fiscal 99 1.40
if estimates are met the new PE would be 13.3, based on a price of 18 5/8 and earnings of 1.40.
these estimates are lower than the .77 and 1.42
posted by zacks a few months ago.
Shares outstanding for Hasbro is 196.17 million.
Hasbro has more than Pokeman to bring in income as they manufacture Star Wars also,
list of other names in their toy lineup are Playskool, Milton Bradley, Parker Brothers
Child Guidance, Tonka Corp products Tiger Electronics just acquired in 98 Cabbage patch dolls acquired from the now defunct Coleco Industries.
The Star Wars Film Phantom Menace grossed 400 million which was somewhat less than expected but still should spur sales of toys related to the movie. Star Wars sales will be around 600 million. 100 million in sales translates to about a 05 in earnings profits.
Furbies will bring in about 250 million in revenue and is unlikely to continue that trend in fiscal 2000 although sales will be good.
With the Phantom Menace movie over sales of that Star War line will most likely drop off.
Hasbro interactive sales up from 175 million in 98 estimated up to 300 million in 99
and over 450 million in 2000 will take up some of the slack. New game introductions will help these sales Rollercoaster Tycoon Mech Warrior 3 and Civilization 2.
But much sales will be loss in fiscal 2000 from phantom menace and furbies. So the unknown factor is just how much will Pokeman sales be for Hasbro in the fiscal year 2000. They own Wizard who makes the cards as well as the toys they create for the Pokeman market but can they sale over 400 million in fiscal 2000 to make up for a short fall and create some growth for the company?
Now with 1.40 (which is down from 1.42 estimates of only a few months ago)estimate for the upcoming year to be reported 2/10/2000 and giving them a PE of 17-20 as the market should allow for this expansion giving the growth that the Pokeman part of the puzzle could give them. We would have a 3 month price target of 24.14 - 28.4. I believe this is a conservative PE ratio to assign. After that though its anyone guess until more is known on sales of Pokeman. Now the cards given to them with the purchase of Wizard would only count toward earnings after Sept when by that time they were all sold out across the US. So I do expect better than expected sales as Wizard comes out with there new releases in November. Of course if Star Wars comes out with another movie next year this will no doubt give rise to record growth for Hasbro for fiscal 2000. Now for the year 99 pokeman sales for Hasbro will exceed 100 million and that estimate could be very conservative.
Also, Wizards magic the gathering cards are the best selling trading card game to date. So Hasbro has a lot of products that could raise earnings for fiscal 2000. The estimates as they stand now for fiscal 2000 is 1.54 bringing the pe to 12.09 (based on the present price of 18 5/8) and a 15 month projected target price 26-31 dollars a share and that is using conservative PE of 17-20 and estimates that could be very conservative if Pokeman products sales are as high as expected. Plus the Pe ratio of Hasbro has been expanding if it continues to expand in expectation of higher growth because of Pokeman products and if Star Wars products do not drop off as much as anticipated we could see a higher short term return and higher 1 year return.
tom
nexuskey@yahoo.com
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