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Subject:  Re: if volatility=risk then know this Date:  6/8/2000  7:20 PM
Author:  solasis Number:  30 of 297

well you can drop out the risk free rate and you'll get a similar set of data points over the increasing holding periods.

the point is that the data clearly shows, that despite the seeming unpredictability of short term price moves, that variance of those moves does not start out extremely high and then move progressively lower with time. in fact, variance increases with time until a holding period of 2000-3000 days, and then begins to drop off significantly (resulting in a "tighter" statistical disn). variance is highest at 100-1000 days, not 100-1000 hours. so if you define risk as price volatility, you should be aware of the fact that volatility, as defined by the price variance, is highest in that 100-2000 day time frame. most people do not understand this.

it is particularly relevant for people who expect to be cashing out of investments in that 100-2000 day time frame, and for retirees who are withdrawing capital over time with a set asset alocation method such as the tri-partite method of Armstrong.


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