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Stocks O / OshKosh B'Gosh, Inc.
|Subject: Re: Is there anyone here???||Date: 9/30/2000 12:37 PM|
|Author: superdave101||Number: 26 of 45|
Hi Walt! Sorry it took me so long to reply, I think I fell asleep in here all by myself!
Here is what I think........OKB is a very solid cash rich company with steady sales and better than average margins (last time I saw they had the 8th best gross margin in apparel). They also have great name recognition, a quality product, and loyal following. I also know they are in the middle of a project to take the last of their U.S. manufacturing off shore (Mexico). This might cause some funny financals this year because of write offs etc, but will soon account for cost savings of around 10M/year when finished. That 10M goes straight to the bottom line and will substantualy increase their margins. The last positive is that they are in a large stock buyback program.
Oshkosh sales don't seem to move with trends as you asked about. They continualy post Revenues in the high 400M range regardless of economy or trends. This is both positive and negative. Positive is that you don't have to worry that sales will decrease under say 475M regardless of what is happening in the market. Negative because without sales growth a company gets shunned by Wall Street these days. It's not enough just to make a boat load of money, you have to show double digit growth along with double digit margin increases.
Here is the kicker......I feel Oshkosh will find some significant sales increases in the late first quarter early second quarter of next year. (trust me) If they do that, along with the nice margin increases they are working on, the lack of growth in other areas, and the decrease in market cap do to buybacks, this stock should move up sharply. It already is sinking to 13 then running back to 19 - 21 (mostly due to buy backs I think). This has turned out to be a lot of fun for me, getting in at 13 - 14 and back out at 18 - 20....over.....and over......and over.
My stratagy right now is playing the range when I want while a compile as much as possible. If you've got a year or two to give I think you'll be one happy Fool.
Happy Trading, I hope you check back cause it is awefuly lonely on this board.
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