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|Subject: Dawning of a new day....||Date: 3/8/2002 10:47 AM|
|Author: RayBH||Number: 20532 of 36711|
As the market recovers and the recession fades into history one of the most important indicators in my humble opinion will be the "trend" of investors, that's right I said investors not traders.
As we have seen in this downturn there has never really been "capitulation" on a mass scale by investors. No mass exodus by investors saying I surrender, I admit defeat, and I have been destroyed.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that hasn't happened to individuals and the pain is just as real to every one that it has happened to, It just hasn't happened on a scale that say's the market has a "bottom" to bounce off of.
So I believe that when we are truly on the uptrend in the market as compared to "sideways" or "roller coaster", investors will again listen to what their "full service" brokers will tell them. They will invest in the KKDs, AMZNs and FILL IN THE BLANK........no matter what the valuations or EPSs are.
Now as traders we can capitalize on that, but our thinking must be based on current trends and news. We must be sure that we are ahead of the curve and on top of the "bubbles", and trust me there will be "bubbles" because the mentality of the "hands off" investor has NOT changed.
They will still rely on the "brokers", "talking heads" and "analysts".
If you don't think that's true just ask some of your friends that are not into trading, but have a 401K or some such and see what they say about LTB&H.
During this time it will be very hard to plot a course that will put you in or near the bottom, but that will not be all bad because you will trade on the "trend" up and exit on the "trend" down.
I believe it will be very fast paced and we will see the types of swings we saw in 96 to 99 as far as volume and price swings.
And we will see that "sticking to our plan is essential" .........and what is that plan Ray...
a) I will only buy a stock I am familiar with.
b) before I buy that stock I will know it better than I know my "momma"
c) I will put a buy at a price that I have picked based on DD
d) I will have my exit price picked before I buy (naturally I will move up stops if it "runs")
c) I will set my stop loss in accordance with my pain level in case the trade turns against me.
d) I will take my time and not panic ..........panic will defeat me in the market.
e) and most of all I will enjoy trading....and when I don't enjoy it I will step back for a while.
Simple ain't it ......but how often we forget.
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