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Subject:  OT: Any TC2000(funds) Users? Date:  6/20/2002  10:10 PM
Author:  imcharliehm Number:  4015 of 35803

Is anyone using TC2000(funds) as the basis for their investment/trading decisions?

This crazy market is killing returns for conventional strategies, but there are still oppportunities out there. E.g., May 07 I took a position in EGLRX, an international REIT, purely on the basis of technicals --though admittedly very late and I haven't the slightest idea what they own-- and I'm up an annualized 13%, which makes me wonder why I'm even considering junk bonds and putting in the hours doing fundamental research when risk-equivalent returns --the only true basis of comparison-- are available in easier ways. E.g., on something like OAKGX, a global value fund, I'm still up 18% from where I got into it nearly two years ago, and only truly scary bonds are offering 18% these days, not that I'm not looking, but I'm questioning the prudence of committing more money to the sector for it's being very expensive (due to where we are in the interest rate cycle, which continues to base.)

Admittedly, trading technically is sector hopping, and a very unFoolish thing to do, but in the trading-range/down market we're in, holding on and hoping just doesn't make much sense. My interest would be to get a thread going on using funds --any asset class-- as alternatives to CD's (and equivalent) when appropriately adjusted for the genuine risk differences there are going to be between the instruments, as a way to keep cash working. The question to explore, which anyone could jump in on, is this:

How much does a fluctuating investment --however that is to be measured--- have to return in excess of a non-fluctuating investment before taking on its risk becomes becomes the smarter choice? Where does the crossover point --the efficient frontier-- fall when the two are plotted against each other? (which is probably a function of a third value, if I'm remembering the MPT stuff right, which is one's individual risk tolerance, which would need to to be quantified as well.)

Conceptually the problem is simple: convert an apple and an orange each to juice and ask which one tastes better as well as provides threshold nutritional value. Any ideas on how to obtain risk numbers that would have general applicability to the fixed-income community that presumably makes up this message board so that people could see that there might be alternatives to CD's, an instrument with whic