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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/galeno-asks-ltltltltdaryll42-wrote-while-17521603.aspx

Subject:  Re: It is safe now. Date:  7/16/2002  12:52 PM
Author:  intercst Number:  70477 of 734909

galeno asks,

<<<<Daryll42 wrote:
While I tend to agree that it's SAFER to begin 4% withdrawals NOW than at the end of 1999, in theory you could begin retirement NOW and withdraw MUCH MORE than 4%. That's because it's 1932...no longer 1929.>>>>

How do you know this? Is there something in the SWR study that I've overlooked or misunderstood?


Daryll42 is assuming that 1999 was "1929" and that today, 3 years later is, "1932". You can use my "P/E vs. safe withdrawal rate study" to find the 30-year safe withdrawal for a retirement starting in any year from 1871-1970, see link:

http://rehphome.tripod.com/pestudydata.html

The 30-year safe withdrawal in 1929 is 4.4%. If you started in 1932 it's 7.0%. Of course there's no way to know this for sure ahead of time, so my preference is to use 4% and have more money than I know what to do with when I get older. <grin>

intercst


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