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|Subject: Re: About Sentiment (rant and ramble)||Date: 7/26/2002 6:56 AM|
|Author: JustThis||Number: 19573 of 44586|
I think the sentiment shift is just a form of bi-polar disorder that is brought about by moon phases.
I actually am ignoring it for the most part for everyone except me. I was feeling a bit bi-polar and nervous myself and that is why I regrouped.
I work with the mentally ill and what is striking is how the range of perception and sentiment can shift in a moment. One word, one glance can change their attitude for days if not weeks.
However, that doesn't change thier overriding situation unless that shift causes an action that breaks them out of their cycle.
Does this sound familiar? It should.
My wife is a Behavioral Analyst and keeps extensive data concerning the autistic child she works with. She even uses a modified log chart to graph his progress and find optimal points for intervention when he begins to hit resistence on the charts.
Again, it sounds familiar because it the nature of all things to have these cycles and channels and shifts at the boundries.
So to clean up your rant, if I may.
1)the cycle is at a turning point. Some people say it was this day or that day but come on, can you be that precise? The turning points get jumpy.
2)The channel/trend has been one of the worst, if not the worst ever.
3)By my anecdotal view and the gallup poll I read, it is clear that the majority is in denial about the historic nature of this fall.
4)Many people are addicted to debt and consumed by consuming. This ranges from the innercity teenager to the heads of corporations with constests over who has the biggest yacht.
5)Many people and corporations are at crisis levels of stress.
So with those five points we hit a turn point.
The interventions were possibly in the currency markets which is a direct source. The indirect interventions are those you mentioned with regards to policy.
We know from history, that currency interventions last about 2-4 days. We also know from history that policy interventions don't work at all. They are too slow to react and implimented long after the problem.
These interventions, i have seen no others like better econ numbers or earnings, are not usefull. Neither are the better numbers.
They are not useful because all interventions are to effect the future, but the future is not the problem. The past is the problem.
It is the revelations of the past fraud, overstatements, bad management and waste that is killing the system.
I saw a story yesterday about a woman who was in jail for murder and escaped after 4 years of a 99 year term. They just found her 20some years later, married, kids, living in Ohio. She obviously is not a real great threat to society since she obviously has been clean for 20 years, but back she goes for the rest of her life because rules are rules.
I bring this up because we are not a society that can let things go and start over. We cannot drop the negativity, which is painfully obvious in politics. These restatements and handcuffed CEOs will continue for a while.
So after a long ramble, if the market seems to start to forget and let go of these past events, then there will be an investable/tradable shift. Until then these weak interventions will be blips.
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