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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/rob-provided-a-summary-of-roger-perlmutter-18071470.aspx

Subject:  Re: [LONG] Amgen VP of R&D at MIT Date:  10/30/2002  2:01 AM
Author:  AlohaDan100 Number:  13742 of 24983

Rob provided a summary of Roger Perlmutter, Executive Vice President of Research and Development Amgen business talk on "Big Biotech: Pharmaceutical Research and Development in the Post-Genome Era."

The main signs of big pharma's problems that he pointed out were decelerating revenue growth, increasing patent exposure, fewer new drugs, and increasing cost per drug.


snip and then an indirect whack at the FDA

From $54million in 1976 to $231million in 1987 to $802million in 2000. This increase he mainly blamed on the increasing length of drug development, primarily in the clinical trial phase. In the 60s, the average length was about 8 years, whereas in the 80s and 90s, that increased to about 14 years. Over that time, the amount of red tape appeared to stay constant at about 2 years. The extra time in clinical trials has to be spent just checking for side effects of the NME. Even once a drug is approved, only about 3 of 10 recoup their R&D costs, and he guesstimated that number is dropping to 2 out of every 10. After reiterating those points, he moved on to biotech.


If you have access to Investor's Busines Daily take a look at the editorial on page A17 Tuesday October 29th.

"Is Biotech Revolution Victim of Government Bureaucracy, Rules?" by Henry H. Miller

Sounds very much like Rob's description of Perlmutter's speech only with more emphasis on FDA delays.


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