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Subject:  Re: Funding future needs Date:  8/8/2003  2:42 PM
Author:  SloanT Number:  216 of 5088

Hyperborea:The riskiest years are likely to be the early years. If the early years bring good returns then the likelihood of outliving your portfolio decreases. If the early years are bad then the likelihood of outliving the portfolio increases. With either case there is still no guarantee just probability. Changes made in those early years (income increase or withdrawal decrease) will have the most effect on survival.

I always appreciate your math-grounded approach to SWR's and retirement. It's so refreshing to work with logical assumptions and real numbers rather than emotions about what will last.

My feelings about how much is enough is pretty similar to yours. I think the risk of continuing to work is as great as the risk of running out. Primarily because you can always take steps to avoid running out, but you can't go back and start earlier if you worke