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Subject:  Re: FIRE Benchmarks Date:  9/24/2003  2:17 AM
Author:  warrl Number:  889 of 5232

He drowned out anyone who disagreed with him or was interested in other investments including real estate to build wealth. Many people have subsequently found that 4% if far too optimistic in the current environment where many including Warren Buffett say expect no better that 6-7% over the next decade.

If you consider his occasionally saying "I couldn't find historical data therefore I cannot include it in the study" to be drowning out the HUNDREDS of discussions of real estate that have occurred on this board over the past couple years, then yes, he's drowned out other investments.

And no, nobody has "found" that 4% is far too optimistic in the current environment. Making such a "finding" would require actually knowing what market returns for both stock and bond markets will be over the next 30 years. Even Warran Buffett's expressed opinion (not finding) is only for 10 years, not 30.

And 6% growth over the next 10 years is far better than what happened in the stock market over the 10 years beginning January 1929. The 4% withdrawal rate was good enough for that period and the 20 that followed.
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