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Subject:  Re: Rip Van Winkle Portfolio Date:  3/22/2004  10:56 PM
Author:  yobria Number:  39962 of 88535

you have no idea if the next ten plus years will resemble

That's true. In fact I have no idea if I'll get hit by a bus tomorrow. But I have to make decisions based on history and my own conclusions.

Recalling a statistic from "Stocks For The Long Run", domestic stocks have outperformed bonds historically over 80% of all 10 year periods, 90% of all 20 year periods, and 100% of all 30 year periods.

Another fact is current interest rates: five year treasuries are yielding 2.7%, actually a negative yield when you adjust for taxes and inflation. And while rates could go lower, it seems more likely to me that they'll rise over the next few years.

So I have these two facts, and I have money to invest that I won't need for 30 years. My conclusion is that stocks are the best investment.


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