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|Subject: Re: BMW method||Date: 3/25/2004 2:21 PM|
|Author: BuildMWell||Number: 29700 of 46903|
"Well I have been biting my tongue, because I hate these kind of posts, but what you wrote is (in my opinion) a little dangerous for the less experienced investor.
For some of the “newer eyes”, let's place some of this discussion in context. Here is a post from April 2000 on the Cisco board." - sean1arch
I hope everyone will read my post from April 2000. It is precisely what the BMW Method is all about. Read it and understand it. It told the truth and it said that CISCO could NOT continue growing at 50% per year. I was warning the reader to do his or her own math.
I never try to discourage a person into selling nor will I try to encourage anyone into buying...that is not my job. My job is to help people to think for themselves.
I sold my Cisco several weeks before I wrote that particular post. My intent was to show the reader how to evaluate Cisco using the BMW Method. I still have my curves right here and I can show you precisely why I was selling. But, the fact that I was selling was of no consequence...I could have been wrong. Cisco had been at $82/share just a month before. I knew why I was out of the stock...but it was not for me to discourage someone else. I just tried to state the facts.
However, the BMW Method told me that CISCO was way, way over-priced. The long-term value was there at 2 to 3 Trillion dollars at a CAGR of 21% or even 15%, but was that reasonable? That was what I was asking.
Personally, I did not think that it was at all reasonable and I was trying to show why. A 50% CAGR is not sustainable. But, the stock was priced for that assumption.
I tried to ask the right questions. Read the post again.
Since then, I have decided that asking questions does not work. I have decided that I need to show people the BMW Method so they will have to answer the hard questions for themselves. They can just look at a chart and see what is going on. I use Cisco as one of my examples, by the way. It is a perfect example of how to buy and sell using the BMW Method. By the way, I sold Cisco again last month at $29/share and have an order in right now at $22/share. If I get it, fine, if not fine.
I did not bu