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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/gtgt-i-am-thinking-that-6-is-a-safe-22034130.aspx

Subject:  Re: Rate of withdrawal Date:  2/8/2005  9:56 AM
Author:  ziggy29 Number:  3064 of 5074

>> I am thinking that 6% is a safe withdrawal rate if you start at the right time of the market cycle.. where this is I am not sure, but probably at the start of a secular bull (where P/E's are at or near historic lows). Then the compounding growth will raise much faster than your equity withdrawals. <<

The problem with this is that if you retire at the start of a secular bull, your portfolio has probably been mauled by bears in the months/years just before your retirement date. So the withdrawal amount which would be 6% at the start of this secular bull might have been 4% before the bear market began, especially if the bear is accompanied by high inflation.

Unless, of course, your crystal ball was working flawlessly and told you to move everything into bonds and cash just ahead of the bear market just before your retirement. I don't think mine works that well. :-)

#29
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