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Subject:  Re: Religionists miss the scale of things Date:  3/14/2005  5:11 AM
Author:  Edsword2 Number:  143709 of 501814

In all fairness for those reading this other than jwiest. i am responding to his post on 3-11-05 @ 11:55am. To get the full import you may find his post helpful. Apparently he didn't write that post to me, but he speaks of me and since i happened upon it, i respond.

jwiest,
You wrote: "Now I'd love to poke specific holes in Flew's statement, but I don't have the biological data in front of me. I must say though, that is an extremely vague statement. What does he mean by "data"? As far as I can tell, he must mean basic chemical interactions between molecules."

Response...Basic chemical interactions-yes. Simple-no. THE DATA HE SPEAKS OF IS GENETIC CODE. DNA molecules are made up of two very long polymers in the shape of a double helix. Both polymers contain nucleotides. The nucleotides can be broken down into three categories. 1)deoxiribose, 2)phosphates, and 3)nitrogenous bases. There are four different nitrogenous bases or chemicals...thymine, cytosine, adenine & guanine. These four bases are the foundation of the GENETIC CODE. These four act as the cell's memory instructing it on things like protein and enzyme synthesis. EACH CELL HOLDS 46 DNA MOLECULES. EACH DNA MOLECULE CONTAINS ROUGHLY 160 MILLION NUCEOTIDE PAIRS. This is the huge amount of data Flew spoke of.

Now try and poke away.

Next, jwiest goes into math and mentions he wonders if i have gotten lost in the details yet. As if somehow i should be intimidated by his intellectual prowess?

Dear jwiest your mathematical equation is irrelevant. i think that somehow you are so impressed with yourself that you forgot what the point really is.

You said: "Bacteria are the simplest living creatures, and yes, Ed, though we have not seen a complex organic globule actually turn into the first bacteria, we can identify the likely processes and show that the chances of it happening are not low on a global scale."

Let me start with a quote from http://intelligentdesign.org/odds/odds.htm
"It was Dr. Emile Borel who first formulated the basic Law of Probability which states that the occurrence of an event where the chances are beyond 1 chance in 10 to the 50th power(the 200th power is used for scientific calculations), is an event which we can state with certainty will never happen, regardless of the time allotted or how many opportunities could exist for the event to take place.(Emile Borel, Probabilities and Life, Dover 1962, chapters 1-3)
The mathematical probability of a single living cell arising spontaneously has been calculated over and over again by evolutionary scientists and they have been unable to come up with a figure which falls under Borel's upper limit!"

"See the work of Dr. Frank Salisbury, Dr. George Wald, Dr. Harold Morowitz to name just a few and you will understand why probability work has all but ceased by evolutionary scientists. Evolution fairs badly in the light of probability considerations. These considerations played a larger role in changing Astronomer and Physicist Sir Fred Hoyle from his belief in a purely evolutionary origin of life to believing in a Creator."

"Hoyle calculated the chance that life could have evolved spontaneously to be 1 chance in 10 to the 40,000 power. This number is far larger than Borel's upper limit and makes the supposed spontaneous origin of life nothing short of a miracle!(See - Evolution from Space, Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe,J. M. Dent & Sons, 1981, p. 130)"

Let me show you a real math equation you should be looking at.
i'm tempted to reference the atheist-gene like you did the God-gene but i'll be nice...

DNA is a vastly more complex structure than human bones, but for example purposes this will work. Both the bones and our DNA must be assembled together in a perfectly integrated whole. There are approximately 206 bones in the human body, and let us keep it simple and go for general positioning of the bones in our equation. We will ignore whether the bone is facing the right way or not. Instead focusing on getting the bone into its right position. So again, achievement of the bones in their general correct position is all we will shoot for. Keep in mind that cell organelles are FAR more complex than this.

So first, we have to determine how many possibilities exist given that there are 206 bones. In other words, how many combinations could we randomly make out of the 206 bones. A system of two parts (1 x 2) has two possible combinations...1,2 or 2,1. A system of three parts (1 x 2 x 3) has 6...1,2,3 or 1,3,2 or 2,3,1 or 2,1,3 or 3,1,2, or 3,2,1. And so on to 206 we go (1 x 2 x 3 x 4....x 206). This is called 206 factorial and it is approximately 10 to the 388th power. If this experiment could be completed every second for every single second available in some evolutionary estimates of 10 billion years...that is somewhere around 10 to the 18th power worth of seconds to work with. This produces a probability of 10 to the (388-10=370) power. The chance of getting the bones all in their correct position is less than one chance in 10 billion years.

Come back when you've done your homework.


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