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|Subject: Re: Happy Dance||Date: 6/23/2005 11:15 AM|
|Author: ziggy29||Number: 3382 of 5086|
>> Unless you're a phenomenal speed-reader, you didn't read the linked thread where the numbers were developed with explicitly laid out assumptions. <<
Didn't need to. Here and at the REHP board, we've gone over this hundreds of times with a fine-toothed comb, looking at all kinds of reasonable assumptions.
Since you're new here, I guess you might not know that.
>> What I presented was the takeaway for somebody far away from retirement. <<
But if we're talking about nominal (i.e. inflation-riddled) dollars, we have no idea what inflation will do for the next 30-40 years. (We don't know about the next 10, either, other than that inflation will change the numbers far less over 10 years than over 40.) So the $2-3 million guess is a pretty wild one. If inflation rages, you may need $5-10. If something happens to halt inflation (doubtful with the oil situation), $3 million is way too high. This long time period is too far to go out with *any* confidence using inflated dollars based on assumptions of inflation.
Again, over the years I've been here, we've talked about this to the nth degree.
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