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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/i-believe-the-traditional-interpretation-of-the-23195948.aspx

Subject:  Re: Weighing options for our taxable money Date:  10/21/2005  3:28 PM
Author:  spinning Number:  13892 of 36201

I believe the traditional interpretation of the 4% safe withdrawal rate is about 30 years, which is probably okay if you're 65 at reitrement, but not 50. And, there are two other problems. First, the assumption is you will get average returns, but if you get clobbered with a bear stock market right after retirement, you get in big trouble.

The 4% safe withdrawal rate is based on a worst case scenario (at least the worst in the past 100 years or so), not on getting average returns.
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