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Stocks H / Housevalues, Inc.
|Subject: Re: Jump in last couple of days||Date: 1/26/2006 1:45 AM|
|Author: TimSKane||Number: 59 of 120|
Don't know why the spike. May I offer observations?
1) With clear evidence that real estate markets are shifting, inventory rising coupled with financially strapped borrowers (new homeowners), I believe that Housevalues may be in for a rough ride.
2) Agents, particularly in bubble markets such as California, Florida, New England and others, will not pay referral fees due to their very own lack of business or difficulty in weathering a tough market. For example in California there has been a rise to some 400,000 agents in 2005 from approx. 280,000 licensees in 1999. Many of these folks will leave the business. And with their exit, so too will go their subscriptions to SOLD.
3) To counter this exit, I would venture that SOLD will add more services or alter their business plan accordingly. Being that Housevalues is so young and not seasoned through even one cycle, it will be interesting to watch how they perform in a challenging market ahead, as I see it.
I believe that the behavior of the Realtors is somewhat predictable and that the downside due to Realtors leaving the business will superceed that of adding new accounts--certainly there is potential for adding new accounts whereas agents didn't need a referal resource due to a gravy market. But again, I think the cost & ROI benefit coupled with market conditions favors loss of business.
Legacy Escrow Service, Inc.
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