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Subject:  Re: Implications of Fed pause Date:  8/9/2006  12:44 PM
Author:  WendyBG Number:  17779 of 36218

<A currency CD through EverBank will run $10k. Your downside might be return of principal and modest gains. Your upside might be return of principal and healthy gains. So, a worst case scenario might be a loss of opportunity compared to putting the money to work elsewhere. That lost opportunity might buy you some invaluable experience and prove to be a genuine bargain. So, the experiment of buying a currency CD might be well worth running.>

I ran this experiment, in 2004-2005. I bought currency CDs, from Everbank.

At first, the dollar continued to drop, against the currencies, as it had been, for the previous 2 years.

Then, the dollar "unexpectedly" rose against many currencies, in 2005 -- unexpectedly, because the mainstream press (such as Newsweek) were finally publishing articles about the drop in the dollar (some would consider that a contrarian indicator).

As a result of the gain in the dollar, against the South African Rand, my principal (when converted from the currency into dollars) was so much less than the interest, that I lost money. Therefore, the worst case scenario has to include a loss of principal, due to gain in the dollar. This adds risk.

(Since I also had New Zealand and Australian CDs, I eventually made a small profit...but less than expected, and I didn't continue.)

I have been subscribing to The Daily Pfennig, for over 2 years. Though interesting, this is a highly biased analysis, strongly colored by the author's desire to see the dollar fall. It can also be fundamentally wrong, such as when the author castigated "Stupid Interest Rate Talk" (which disagreed with his evaluation of the market's direction) -- but the market did, indeed, shift, on the basis of interest rates.

You are right. Speculation isn't my game, especially in such a complex market. I should stick to my knitting, and stay away from currencies.


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