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|Subject: Re: Implications of Fed pause||Date: 8/13/2006 9:05 AM|
|Author: Lokicious||Number: 17814 of 35930|
Your original source is the Wall Street Journal, which consistently shows little understanding of real economic forces.
I honestly don't don't where interest rates are going, and have stuck to locking in whatever rates are best for my long term laddering, instead of waiting for rates to go up.
If the economy slows, even if that reduces inflation (more likely CPI-U than real inflation, since it overweights discretionaries), that lowers tax receipts and increases federal deficit and personal borrowing (to make ends meet with weaker job market). Long term rates are less dependent on the Fed and more on other factors in supply and demand.
I wouldn't be surprised at a slight decline in long term interest rates, but there isn't the slightest sign the politiicians will do anything beyond faith-based (i.e., wishful thinking) initiatives to solve the deficit. And, gas prices will continue up over the long haul (lots of speculative money in current prices, so decline come fall not unlikely).
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