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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/i-really-have-no-prediction-of-when-we-will-fire-25000411.aspx

Subject:  Re: 2006 FIRE Update Date:  1/4/2007  10:04 PM
Author:  bighairymike Number:  3945 of 5069

I really have no prediction of when we will FIRE. It now appears that 10NW/AI won't be enough as I have a son now at age 1, and possibly another in the future. My goal is still at age 40, 8 years from now, which at 11% stock market returns would put us at ~16 NW/AI, a comfortable retirement.
--
whyohwhyoh


I am going to pick on this metric a little bit. I don't intend to be critical or contentious but in the spirit of helping a fellow Fool, I want to give you some things to think about. First of all, you are to be commended for having a plan, keeping records, setting goals, measuring against those goals. That puts you way ahead of many.

But getting to the root of the matter, your NW/AI metric is puzzling to me. For instance, if your income goes up $50K, your NW needs to go up by $280K just to stay at your current 5.6 NW/AI ratio. Even if you save the entire $50K and it earns another $50K, the $100K addition to your NW would still pull down your NW/AI ratio.

A more conventional metric would be shoot for a NW = 25 * AE. Where AE is your estimated annual post retirement living expense whch may be more or less than your current AI.

Just something to think about ....

Best wishes.... bhm




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