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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/now-his-accuracy-is-meaningless-the-problem-is-25115716.aspx

Subject:  Re: CAPS is not meant to be a mirror of performa Date:  2/1/2007  12:59 PM
Author:  albaby1 Number:  4796 of 8093

Now, his accuracy is meaningless. The problem is that he wasn't really saying "I think this stock will beat the market over the next year", but rather "I think this stock will be ahead at some arbitrary point between now and the end of time".

It's only meaningless under a specific definition of accuracy - one which CAPS is not using. A correct prediction that a given stock will outperform the market at some point in the future would be incredibly valuable. Indeed, one could make a solid argument that it's far more useful to be able to identify that a stock will have outperformed the market by 5% at some time in the future than to be able to determine which stocks outperform/underperform over an arbitrary time frame (a year, a quarter, what have you).

Being able to correctly predict that a stock may jump past the market by 10% some time in the next few months, even if it falls behind the market over the calendar year, would be a very useful skill - and one that could be valuable. CAPS tries to measure that skill, not necessarily the ability to predict relative stock prices exactly one year (or some other arbitrary time period) from now.

Albaby
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