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Subject:  Re: CAPS is not meant to be a mirror of performa Date:  2/2/2007  9:13 AM
Author:  albaby1 Number:  4808 of 8285

Okay, I predict that every stock in the Dow will be beating the market at some point in the future.

I also predict that every stock in the Dow will be losing to the market at some point in the future.

Let's see how I do. I bet my accuracy with both prediction sets is going to be phenomenal.


That's very likely for de minimis losses and gains, such as might occur during the course of a trading gain. It's probably likely over the near term. But it's less likely that you'll get over the 5% mark for those picks if you make both outperform and underperform calls. Even so, if you were in a world without transaction costs, you could make an awful lot of money in a real-world portfolio exploiting that effect. That's why CAPS has the 5% rule - to lock out exploiting those minimal gains.

The exercise that CAPS is trying to undertake is to get players to