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Subject:  Re: SWR and irrational exuberance Date:  2/7/2007  9:22 PM
Author:  GusSmed Number:  1310 of 119562

Of course not and bear in mind that BMW's post related to a ten year period where his mothers' net worth declined by 60%, even though she was (presumably) on public assistance for the entire time.

I read it that way at first, but I think he did better than that. As stated in the post, her net worth was $300K initially, but then he had to shell out $98K, so the starting funds were $212K, off which he had to generate $20K income. Final stated value was $120K, so that's a 43% decline. Still a decline, but not quite as much.

I don't really want to speculate exactly how the numbers went, but I'm assuming that the story's outcome would be different if he'd taken over in 2000 with $212K rather than 1995.

He offers a cookbook plan for retirement, and the nice thing about it is that it is time-tested. It works.

Yeah, I think it's a lot more appropriate for most people, honestly. Active management and investing in individual stocks isn't for everyone.

I do not think that someone can count on 15% returns to fund their retirement and I do not think that BMW does.

I don't really know how else to read these statements:

If you can grow your nestegg at 15%/year, you can withdraw 10% per year and also grow your portfolio faster than inflation will devalue it.

The problem is in believing that you can gain at that 15% rate. That is something you will need to prove to yourself.

- Gus
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