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Subject:  Re: CAPS is not meant to be a mirror of performa Date:  2/14/2007  12:51 PM
Author:  woof321 Number:  4900 of 8437

The problem is that if one is better than average at picking stocks, then the system encourages making as many picks as possible. When I first started playing, I assumed, like most I suspect, that I should only enter my "best" picks. Adding a bunch off extra picks that in aggregate would beat the market would give me a few extra points but they would dilute my accuracy, so there'd be a trade-off. I soon realized that that isn't how this game works, however.

In baseball, we look at both quantitative (H, HR, RBI) and qualitative (BA, OBP, SLG) metrics when considering hitting performance. A hitter that often swings at bad pitches might add a few hits to his total, but will lower his qualitatives - sometimes it's better to just take the walk. There's a trade-off.

Not so in CAPS, unfortunately. Points seem to work fine as a quantitative metric. Accuracy was intended to measure quality, but fails. Instead, by letting players decide when to close positions, accuracy can be "banked" and as such it is essentially a second quantitative. In September we were all marvelling at the leaders' 70% accuracies. Now they have over 75%. They'll soon have over 80%. Qualitative measures should not be increasing over time unless skill is improving. Here's turbotrager's accuracy over 5 months:

October 54%
November 61%
December 64%
January 66%
February 69%

CAPS5star1star picked stocks the same way, but didn't bank. Has a hi