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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/db-quotregarding-the-predictive-value-of-25562694.aspx

Subject:  Re: Income Planning Assumption Date:  6/6/2007  1:26 PM
Author:  telegraph Number:  57798 of 78165

db: "Regarding the predictive value of history, absent other information, a long history is the best we have. One can always point to worse case scenarios and say it could be worse in the future, but then the logical extension is to hide your money (in gold) along with weapons of choice, because who knows what catastrophic event might occur. The withdrawal studies are based on modeling historical expectations."

Yes, one can point to 'worst case' scenarios that have happened in the past, and that means there is a definite possibility that will happen in the future if 'the future is like previous history'. Thus, you SHOULD take that as your worst case.

No, the logical extension to hide your money in gold has not proven to be a good strategy most of the