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|Subject: Re: now 'n later||Date: 7/4/2007 1:34 AM|
|Author: TMFBigFrog||Number: 1890 of 3179|
Can anyone provide a reason why a new investor wouldn't wait until at least the NDA is filed, if not wait into Q1 '08 before putting cash into this opportunity?
The market is faster than we are. News is generally priced so quickly into a company's stock that we mere mortal individual investors will rarely (if ever) be able to achieve excess profits from investing in line with the headlines. As a result, an investor's primary options are:
#1) Anticipate the likely headlines and invest before they break.
#2) Determine where the market overreacted one way or the other in response to a headline, and invest to take advantage of that overreaction.
#3) Ignore the news all together and either index or invest based on pure fundamental and business analysis.
Clearly Acusphere does not qualify as a decent investment under #3 at the present time. The company is hemorrhaging cash, is trading above what its book value would be if it just threw in the towel and gave up, and has essentially no real revenue.
That would mean that the argument for investing is largely based on #1 and #2.
Let's address #2 first. Short term, the expensive financing, executive defections, and failure of Imagify to be a "brainless slam-dunk" approvable compound by the FDA have been a trifecta of bad news. No sane CFO would have voluntarily left this close to the Big Pay Day of Imagify's approval. Which likely means one of two things is true:
a) The ex-CFO was pushed out the door for something like either poor cash management or poor management of the company's most recent round of financing. The code phrase "pursue other interests" in the press release (