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Investment Analysis Clubs / Acusphere Community
|Subject: Re: now 'n later||Date: 7/4/2007 1:34 AM|
|Author: TMFBigFrog||Number: 1890 of 3179|
Can anyone provide a reason why a new investor wouldn't wait until at least the NDA is filed, if not wait into Q1 '08 before putting cash into this opportunity?
The market is faster than we are. News is generally priced so quickly into a company's stock that we mere mortal individual investors will rarely (if ever) be able to achieve excess profits from investing in line with the headlines. As a result, an investor's primary options are:
#1) Anticipate the likely headlines and invest before they break.
#2) Determine where the market overreacted one way or the other in response to a headline, and invest to take advantage of that overreaction.
#3) Ignore the news all together and either index or invest based on pure fundamental and business analysis.
Clearly Acusphere does not qualify as a decent investment under #3 at the present time. The company is hemorrhaging cash, is trading above what its book value would be if it just threw in the towel and gave up, and has essentially no real revenue.
That would mean that the argument for investing is largely based on #1 and #2.
Let's address #2 f