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Investment Analysis Clubs / The BMW Method
|Subject: Re: My view of the Current Market - Expensive!||Date: 8/25/2007 7:37 PM|
|Author: BuildMWell||Number: 26541 of 41634|
"I posted some brief comments on what I view as a very expensive stock market valuation.....Is there a BMW Chart for the S&P 500 somewhere?" - kahunacfa
I hesitate to argue with you about this. We have been in agreement for too long on other boards, especially the Philip Morris Board. See? I even refer to it as you prefer since neither of us ever accepted Altria as their new name.
The link that was provided to Mike Klein's excellent chart of the S&P 500 tends to speak for itself. I often use it to explain why I believe the market is right on the money today.
KahunaCFA, you could be right. I would not be surprised if the market went down because it can be irrational, but I would certainly think that the forces are there to drive it higher. I like the earnings picture of the S&P and I love the trend toward lower Fed rates. They have not reduced their key rate yet, but I think that is the logical next move. That should bode well for stocks.
I think we are moving back to an overall situation similar to the post WW-II era with 10 year Treasury Notes yielding 3-1/2 to 4-1/2%, mortgages near 6% and stocks growing at 8% to 10% per year. But, I am an eternal optimist. We have learned much in the last 50 years and I think we can do this without the old volatility. Being off of the Gold standard helps a lot with liquidity. The Fed can do much more with the money supply to smooth the bumps.
Certainly there are things that worry me. But, on the whole, I think the future is very bright. The good news is we can see what is going to be happening by just keeping our eyes open. It is going to happen just like it is going to happen and we are just spectators. If we buy the right equities we can do well no matter what the market does.
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