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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/arezi-ratio-for-nov-16-26104180.aspx

Subject:  Arezi Ratio for Nov. 16 Date:  11/15/2007  7:42 PM
Author:  elann Number:  203937 of 253531


* 10/26 11/2 11/9 11/16/07
Trailing 12 month PE 17.9 17.91 18.65 18.41
Trail Earnings yield 5.59% 5.58% 5.36% 5.43%
Forward 12 month PE 16.64 16.56 16.28 16.01
Fwd Earnings Yield 6.01% 6.04% 6.14% 6.24%
90 day tbill yield 3.94 3.81 3.38 3.30
10 year tbond yield 4.37 4.36 4.28 4.17
Arezi Ratio 0.71 0.68 0.63 0.61
Fed Ratio 0.73 0.72 0.70 0.67


The Arezi Ratio is the 90 day tbill yield divided by the trailing
earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio means that stocks are undervalued.

The "Fed Ratio" is the 10 year treasury bond yield divided by the
forward estimated operating earnings yield of the S&P500. A low ratio
means that stocks are undervalued. Thus, a ratio of 0.71 for example
means, according to Yardeni, that stocks are cheaper than "fair value"
by 29%.

The 'S=120-50*Arezi Ratio' formula indicates an allocation of 90%
stocks, 10% cash this week.


Other timing indicators:
The S&P index is below its 200DMA. - Bearish
We are in the Nov.-Apr. part of the year. - Bullish
The trailing PE ratio of the S&P above 17. - Bearish
The treasury yield curve is normal (not inverted). - Bullish

For my own allocation I start with the Arezi formula and subtract 10%
for each bearish indicator. My current target allocation is 70%.

Elan
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