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Stocks I / Ishares MSCI BRAZIL


Subject:  Re: Brazil Date:  1/19/2008  7:26 PM
Author:  PTRio Number:  17 of 25

You won't see it split.

It is a volatile fund, and can move up or down several percentage points in a matter of hours. Being a BOVESPA index fund, it is strongly affected by dollar flows into and out of Brasil, since those flows are the largest investor component there. Watching the currency exchange can often give you some idea where the fund is going on a near term basis.

This fund should recover as the fed rate announcement nears. With the currently anticipated .5 cut, perhaps .75, the dollar will decrease in value against the Real and this increases the value of EWZ in dollar terms. This will likely be fully valued into the price prior to the announcement. Also, there should be a positive reaction for emerging market equities, and with lower US interest rates the spread between US rates and Brasilian rates makes Brasilian returns more attractive, thus bringing more dollars to the Brasilian market and this generally causes equities to appreciate.

Immediately following the rate announcement I would exercise caution with this fund, it could become even more volatile until the US markets settle down and investors decide whether they like the rate cut and the proposed recession relief legislation, or not. I am thinking they will not, and result in downward pressure on both US and Brasilian equities for a time.

Longer term, this fund should perform well. It's twin backbones, Petrobras and Vale are strong. Brasil itself is doing very well, growing at a sustainable 5% rate, and keeping inflation under control. Brasilian consumers are spending money, and surveys show the highest levels of optimism in Brasilians since the surveys began some 25 years ago.
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