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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/daryll40-asks-as-an-economic-conservative-and-26455568.aspx

Subject:  Re: Is Harry Dent Fessing Up Yet? Date:  3/9/2008  3:39 PM
Author:  intercst Number:  11905 of 56845

Daryll40 asks,

As an economic conservative and critic of most things "liberal", I humbly apologize for peeking into this bulletin board. I promise not to get political (if I can help it!).

I see that the original RETIRE EARLY HOMEPAGE still references Harry Dent. It seems to me that the equity markets should be many points higher by now, according to ol' Harry.

I am wondering if he ever finally fessed up or at least gave the usual excuses that fallen financial soothsayers give (such as, "wait till next year" or "blah blah blah could not be forseen and it changed everything).

Don't you think we followers of this type of data (not necessarily investing accordingly...but at least following the dribble) are entitled to some fessing up.

So where does he stand now? Did he fess?


The latest forecast I've seen from Dent is a 20,000 Dow and 5,000 NASDAQ by 2010. That was about 18 months ago.

Here's my annual article tracking Dent, Bernstein, Buffett from last May.

http://www.retireearlyhomepage.com/reallife07.html

The next update will be published on May 1st. I've already run the numbers on a few of the portfolios.

Value as of Dec 31, 2007 (1994-2007 period)

Buffett $401,128
Dent $405,623
Bernstein (MPT) $218,900
S&P500/FI $247,900

Value as of Dec 31, 2007 (2000-2007 period)

Buffett $166,983
Dent $104,507
Bernstein (MPT) $118,952
S&P500/FI $77,709

I haven't heard if he's "fessed", though obviously if you've followed his demographic theories on investing from 1994 to date you've been very pleased with the performance.

intercst
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