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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/have-fun-thank-you-i-think-i-will-what-jwr-26746667.aspx

Subject:  Re: They Got It Wrong Date:  6/19/2008  3:48 PM
Author:  AcmeFool Number:  62791 of 75383

Have fun.

Thank you, I think I will...



What JWR got right:


What JWR got wrong:
(1) Assumed inflation is constant (with no extra-high periods);
(2) Assumed that this constant inflation rate would be well below the average over the last 50 years;
(3) Assumed it was possible to select companies that would increase their dividend yields by 6% or more indefinitely;
(4) Incorrectly defined the term "safe withdrawal rate" as something that can be reduced if you fall on hard times when it is really something that never has to be reduced because the initial rate was, well, safe;
(5) Refused to address any of the problems people pointed out, instead choosing to insult them and deflect any criticism;
(6) Assumed intelligent people would not call him out for the grossly incomplete and lacking "research" he performed;
(7) Assumed that calling people 10-minute experts would get them to stop being critical of his "research" and possible make him look intelligent;
(8) Assumed that if he threw enough <ahem> at the wall, eventually some of it would stick and look good. (Note: even if it does somehow look good, it still smells like <ahem>.)

Acme
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