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URL:  http://boards.fool.com/my-strategy-for-the-down-draft-has-been-simplicity-26996245.aspx

Subject:  Re: Portfolio Strategy in a Global Down Draft Date:  9/16/2008  1:39 AM
Author:  Pituophis Number:  252207 of 455808

My strategy for the down draft has been simplicity itself, at least in my 401K, which is about 1/2 of my liquid assets and where my options are fairly limited -- I am 100% in a cash-like instrument that Fidelity offers, a "fixed principal annuity" that pays about 4%, since May 2007, except that I briefly went to mostly small cap funds from March to May 2008. So today I watched the carnage with interest as my account gained some insignificant percentage, though ytd it is up 11%. Admittedly this only beats inflation a little, but it has beaten the hell out of the S&P.

I basically have two pools of investment funds. In one I am extremely risk averse. In the other I take a lot of risk and concentrate my bets into a few sectors or areas, that is, I really diversify - I buy both gold AND silver (bada boom! <ggg>). I won't go into the details of my trading activity (again) except to say that I follow macro trends (that stuff we used to talk about on here a lot), trying to buy when nobody wants stuff and selling or shorting when people start saying things like "oil is going to $200!!!." This board and guys like Mish and Sitka and Suissebear and Plunger and Rien and too many others to name have really helped me figure a lot of this stuff out and become fairly successful in trading macro trends. But unfortunately, where the conversation was once led by these mavericks and contrarians, I hate to say that it, but now there is this incessant drone of herd followers, whose opinions mostly just add to the confusion if you don't know to tune them out. (Wow, did I digress or what??? <gg>)...anyway, I just finished entering PMs last week and I'm also 30% SKF and QID in my trading accounts, so I had an ok day today, considering - just barely green. YTD still very green.
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